The Big Five - 22 June edition
A weekly guide to readings on modern war and adapting to win
What a week it has been!
This week saw Russian President Putin visit North Korea and sign a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un. This agreement probably covers military-technical cooperation and might include the provision of more North Korean munitions for the Russian war against Ukraine. Both nations framed the agreement as part of their challenge against the West and the existing global order.
Putin also took the time to threaten South Korea and in doing so, scored an own goal. Having just signed an agreement to help North Korea, he then described how South Korea sending lethal aid to Ukraine would be “a big mistake”. However, South Korea has not sent such aid to Ukraine so far but looks like it is now reconsidering this position. And as always, Darth Putin on Twitter / X had the best observation on Putin, yet again, displaying his abject lack of strategic forethought.
In Ukraine, the Russians have made some progress on the ground in the east but their Kharkiv offensive appears to have bogged down. Ukraine continues its strikes against Russian oil installations and airfields. The US administration has announced that all Patriot production for the next year or so will go to Ukraine, and deliveries to other nations will be delayed. Finally, Germany has announced a massive increase (about 700%) in munitions production, much of which is for Germany and for the Ukrainians.
In the Indo-Pacific region, we saw yet another example of unprofessional, aggressive and unnecessary conduct from the Chinese Coast Guard against the Philippines in the South China Sea. This is becoming a regular occurence from the Chinese, who seem to believe that long-established norms about interactions at sea do not apply to them. Indeed, they now appear to want to act like pirates well beyond their territorial waters. Perhaps western navies need to begin to treat the Chinese Coast Guard as such.
In this week’s articles, I have included an excellent report on the Ukrainian resistance movement in territories illegally occupied by the Russians as well as interesting report on how Russia has evolved its supply chains to support its war against Ukraine. There is also a good piece by Frank Galvin on why war keeps occurring as well as a report from CSET on the Chinese application of AI for military purposes. Finally, there is a story about what Israeli authorities knew in the lead up to the 7 October 2023 attacks against southern Israel.
As always, if you only have time to read one article, the first article is my pick of the week.
Happy reading!
1. The Ukrainian Resistance in Occupied Terrorities
This report from Dr Jade McGlynn provides a range of insights into the importance of the Ukrainian resistance in resisting the Russian occupation and the impact of the resistance movement on the sustainability of Russia’s war. The report also provides recommendations on how the resistance can support the Ukrainian war effort, as well as how western nations might assist the resistance—from boosting morale to providing material assistance. You can read the full report from Dr McGlynn and CSIS here.
2. Why Wars Keep Happening
Every generation believes they are smarter than previous generations and can avoid the mistakes of their predecessors. Perhaps no other endeavour is more subject to this belief than war. Norman Angell’s pre-WW1 book is a great example of this phenomenon. But despite interdependence and the emergence of international norms, wars that make little rational sense continue. You can read about this in the latest piece from Frank Galvin at Engelsberg Ideas here.
3. A Story of Institutional Failure
This is a useful report on what Israeli authorities knew about the pending Hamas attack of 7 October 2023, and what they did (and did not) do to prevent it. As the story notes “the IDF had precise information about Hamas's intentions, but due to prevailing conceptions within the security establishment and possible negligence by senior officials, the warning signs were not acted upon.” You can read the full story about this institutional failure here.
4. China and Military AI
China’s military has often published documents that describe their belief that artificial intelligence will play a foundational role in future conflict. However, this review of many Chinese-language journal articles about AI and war reveals that Chinese defense experts claim that Beijing is facing several technological challenges that will hinder its ability to exploit the advantages of military AI. This excellent report from the Washington DC Center for Security and Emerging Technology describes these obstacles and explores technologies that Chinese experts believe may help the country develop and deploy military AI-enabled systems. You can read the full report here.
5. More Insights into the Russian War Machine
Despite actions or statements in support of Ukraine, intermediaries based in “third countries” are still undermining export controls and sanctions. This has the effect of aiding the Russian defence industrial complex to produce weapons and other military materiel for Russia’s war against Ukraine. This report examines how Russian supply chains have evolved since February 2022, and can be read here.