The Big Five - April 20 Edition
A weekly guide to new readings on modern war and adapting to win
Another interesting week, where we have finally seen the Israeli response to last week’s Iranian missile and drone attack against various targets in Israel, and the final stages of the Ukraine assistance bill going before Congress.
This week, a variety of topics are covered in the Big Five. They range from AI and drones in warfare, the future of Russia, as well as the subject of strategic influence. I have also included a link to the new Australian National Defence Strategy.
If you have time for only one of these, I recommend the first piece from Peter Singer.
Happy weekend reading!
1. The AI revolution is already here
“In just the last few months, the battlefield has undergone a transformation like never before, with visions from science fiction finally coming true. Robotic systems have been set free, authorized to destroy targets on their own. Artificial intelligence systems are determining which individual humans are to be killed in war, and even how many civilians are to die along with them.” So begins Peter Singer’s excellent, and too short, exploration of how AI is already being used to find and target humans and equipment on the modern battlefield. He poses the important question of how far are we willing to go in allowing this technology to select humans for death. It is a subject with profound ethical implications. Read the full article here.
2. Malign Influence Operations Aimed at U.S. Elections
This week, Microsoft released a report that explores the efforts of Russia, and China, to interfere with U.S. elections and to shape popular opinion on support for Ukraine. It also briefly covers the use of generative AI in these strategic influence operations. A short article, you can read it here.
3. Five Potential Russian Futures
In Foreign Affairs this week, an interesting article on potential future scenarios for Russia. As the author notes, “five possible futures for Russia are currently imaginable, and the United States and its allies should bear them in mind.” It’s a long piece, but well worth your attention. You can read the full article here.
4. Avoiding Strategic Miscalculation
An article from Parameters, one of my favourite military journals. In this piece, the author explores how institutions can build better strategic thinkers who can then improve the overall performace of organisations in their strategic thinking and planning. Having also written on this topic previously, I know it is a hard area to get right. But, try me must! You can read the piece here.
5. Australia’s New National Defence Strategy
Finally, it would be remiss of me not to mention the new National Defence Strategy that was released this week. Launched by Australia’s Defence Minister mid-week, the new strategy is largely a continuation of the long-standing Australian defence policy of deterrence by denial, a high tech defence force and the maintenance alliances and regional partnerships. It was accompanied by the release of the revised Integrated Investment Plan, which explains the military procurement program over the next decade. If you want to understand the trajectory of the Australian Defence Force’s capability, and how Australia thinks about its defence, you can read both documents here.