A Ukraine War 2023 Post-Mortem, Part 2

Success, Failure and the Lucretius Problem

Image: @ZelenskyyUa

As difficult as they are to produce and read, retrospectives on 2023 are vital to inform how the military effectiveness of the Ukrainian military can be enhanced. They are also important because they also inform how NATO can better support Ukraine from here onwards through the provision of moral, physical and intellectual assistance.

It is difficult to succeed in any endeavour without some appreciation of failure. Identifying and providing remedies for failure is an important part of how many complex organisations – including military institutions - ensure that they remain successful. Ignoring failure is a great way to ensure it continues. Failure can be anticipated and the process of considering different forms of failure can inform robust military planning. In his book, The Logic of Failure, Dietrich Dorner notes that:

Failure does not strike like a bolt from the blue; it develops gradually according to its own logic…We can learn, however. People court failure in predictable ways.

There have been notable successes this year in Ukraine. The arrival of new Western armoured equipment and long-range strike missiles has been in vital shot in the arm for capability and morale. The opening of new Black Sea export routes has also been economically and diplomatically important for Ukraine.  

But at the same time, there have been shortfalls in expectations, and some failures. These will need to be addressed in order for Ukraine’s 2024 strategy and operations to be more successful in ejecting the Russians from all Ukrainian territory.

I will acknowledge that some views here may not be popular. They should not be seen as disrespecting the enormous courage and resilience of Ukrainian soldiers and citizens. Nothing I can say here can take away from their magnificent dedication and achievements. My assessments below are offered in the spirit of wanting the Ukrainian Armed Forces to be the very best they can be, at the strategic, operational and tactical levels, so they can defeat the Russians.

Measuring Success & Failure in Ukraine’s 2023 Campaigns

At the end of April this year, I published a set of measures against which Ukrainian progress might be assessed. I have referred to these in all of my campaign updates for the war since the beginning of the counteroffensive in June 2023. The following section provides an assessment of 2023 against these measures of success.