America Bombs Iran
A quick assessment of how America's offensive operations against Iran changes the character of the war in the Middle East.
Just because the U.S. administration thinks it is done with Iran for now, that does not mean the Iranians are done with America. What that means in the hours and days ahead remains to be seen.
While I was sitting down to write this week’s Big Five, the news came through that the United States has conducted missions to bomb three different nuclear sites in Iran.
The three sites that President Trump said were struck around 2.30am Iran time included two of Iran’s major uranium enrichment sites. These are the deeply buried facility at Fordow and the uranium enrichment plant at Natanz. While it is unknown if Israel had previously targeted Fordow, Israel had attacked Natanz several days ago. A third site struck by America, near Isfahan, is where Iran stores its near-bomb-grade enriched uranium.
The U.S. President is due to address the American people at 10pm U.S. eastern standard time.
Not long before the U.S. strike, the International Atomic Energy Agency released several updates on the status of Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. These updates included the following:
The Natanz enrichment site contains two facilities. The first is the main Fuel Enrichment Plant. Initial attacks on the 13th of June targeted and destroyed electricity infrastructure at the facility, including an electrical sub-station, the main electric power supply building, and emergency power supply and back-up generators. On the same day, the main cascade hall appears to have been attacked using ground-penetrating munitions.
The second facility at Natanz is the Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant. It consists of aboveground and underground cascade halls. On the 13th of June the above-ground part was functionally destroyed and the strikes on the underground cascade halls were seriously damaging.
A large nuclear complex in Esfahan was targeted for a second time during Israel’s attacks on Iran over the past nine days. Six buildings at the site have now also been attacked: a natural and depleted uranium metal production facility which had not yet begun operations, a fuel rod production facility, a building with low-enriched uranium pellet production as well as a laboratory and nuclear material storage, another laboratory building, a workshop handling contaminated equipment and an office building with no nuclear material.
The Khondab Heavy Water Research Reactor under construction in Arak, was hit on the 19th of June.
The Tehran Research Center, one building, where advanced centrifuge rotors were manufactured and tested, was hit. At the Karaj workshop, two buildings, where different centrifuge components were manufactured, were destroyed.
Fordow is Iran’s main enrichment location for enriching uranium to 60%. The Agency is not aware of any damage at Fordow at this time.
I guess that last dot point will need updating now!
Strike Assessment
The details of what aircraft were used in the American strikes, or the munitions used, remain unknown. The damage assessments for the three sites struck are yet to be released.
Some details are beginning to leak out however. Eric Schmitt in the New York Times has just posted the following update:
A U.S. official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss confidential intelligence, said that multiple 30,000-pound bunker bombs were dropped on Fordo and that initial damage assessments indicated that the facility had been “taken off the table.”
A Fox News report has added more detail, stating that the U.S. force employed six of the large Massive Ordnance Penetrator bombs in the attack. These can only be carried by B2 bombers. Additionally, U.S. force launched 30 Tomahawk missiles from submarines in attacks against the Natanz and Isfahan nuclear facilities.
Implications for the war and region
The character of this war has now changed.
Regardless of whether the U.S. administration sees this as a ‘one and done’ raid or something else, Iran (and its friends) will now see this as a war between Iran on one side, and Israel, the United States and the west more broadly on the other side. This will broaden Iran’s potential conduct of missile strikes, and Iran’s proxy operations in the Middle East, Europe and possibly America.
Over the past couple of weeks, America had evacuated many of its personnel, aircraft and ships from Persian Gulf bases, and families of diplomats had also been evacuated from posts. U.S. bases however remain potential targets for Iran. This could then prompt responses from the Americans and / or host countries. The map below shows the locations of U.S. bases in the Middle East.
While Iranian operations to close the Straits of Hormuz or interfere with shipping in the gulf are an option for Iran, there were reports just before the American strike was announced that Iran’s main naval facility on the Persian Gulf, at Bandar Abbas, had been attacked. Clearly Israel and/or the U.S. were hoping to reduce Iran’s response options for the ongoing strikes throughout Iran.
While Iran’s ballistic missile launches have reduced in intensity over the past week, it may have been keeping reserve stocks that the Israelis have not yet found in order to respond to an American attack. While Israel has done an admirable job finding and killing missile launchers and stocks of the missiles themselves, it is yet to find and destroy the full stock of over 2000 missiles Iran is thought to have possessed before the Israeli attacks began nine days ago. Therefore, missile attacks throughout the region are on the cards in the next day or two.
But these are just the immediate effects. How might the American attacks unify the Iranian people for a longer, broader struggle against Israel and America that plays out over months and years?
A quick final thought - it will be interesting to see the degree to which the Saudis (or other Middle East nations) were consulted as part of the American decision-making process and how they will react now. Back in 2010, a story leaked that King Abdullah repeatedly urged the U.S. to bomb Iran’s nuclear program.
Implications for Iran’s key partners
Iran is part of an alignment of the four major authoritarian powers of Russia, China, North Korea and Iran. Thus far, besides sending ‘thoughts and prayers’ the Russians and Chinese have done very little to intervene in the Israeli campaign against Iran. With America’s entry into the war, might this change the posture of China and Russia?
Russia. From a Russian perspective, America being distracted in the Middle East is a good thing, particularly if munitions and missile interceptors are being diverted from Ukraine to Israel, or to defend U.S. bases in the Middle East. Additionally, the American attack will be employed in their global misinformation campaigns. It will also inform Putin’s domestic influence operations that focus on the threat from NATO as a key rationale for ‘taking all of Ukraine’ as he once again emphasised in a speech this week.
Finally, the media focus on this widening war in the Middle East takes attention away from the nightly atrocities that Putin and his military are executing against the Ukrainian people. The night of 20-21 July saw another large-scale missile and drone attack against Ukraine.
China. Earlier this week, the Chinese president stated that “If the Middle East is unstable, the world will not be at peace. If the conflict escalates further, not only will the conflicting parties suffer greater losses, but regional countries will also suffer greatly.” Xi also supported a Russian initiative to mediate an end to the conflict.
China is Iran’s largest trading partner and export market. Oil is the key commodity being traded in the relationship. Iran is part of the BRICS, China’s attempt to build a competitor to the Western-oriented G7, and is also a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. China and Iran have also signed a 25-year cooperative agreement.
Despite this, China is (so far) offering no material assistance to Iran.
Given the rises in the price of oil in the past week, and the potential further rises with the entry of America into the war, China will be keen see the conflict end. Around 40% of China’s crude oil imports are sourced from the Middle East.
Finally, despite the downsides of surging energy prices for China, the Chinese Communist Party may be content to see America get tangled up in another Middle East conflict. Every ship, every missile, every bomb, every aircraft that the U.S. military has to deploy to the Middle East further reduces the American deterrent in the western Pacific, and the ability to respond to a surprise Chinese strike against Taiwan.
There is a big ‘but’ here however. This week, as the U.S. Navy’s Ford carrier battle group moved swiftly from the Pacific to the Gulf region, China exercised with two of its aircraft carriers to the east of Taiwan and increased the number of ships and aircraft operating around Taiwan. This will only highlight to American strategists the need to limit their involvement in the Middle East. If the Chinese were the brilliant strategists that they continuously attempt to bluff us into believing, they would have actually toned down their activities around Taiwan in order to convince the American’s that it was OK to send more assets to the Middle East. I don’t think the Chinese approach in the western Pacific this week was smart long-term strategy.
Implications for other nations
A couple of quick impressions on this topic.
First, the American bombing will clearly complicate the European efforts to mediate a ceasefire or some other deal with Iran. The Europeans will have some tough choices about whether they distance themselves from the American strike and engage Iran, or demonstrate solidarity with their American allies. The EU is yet to issue a statement on today’s strike on Iran. NATO is also yet to issue any statement.
Second, those nations that are seeking to evacuate their citizens and diplomats from Iran may find these evacuation operations a little more difficult now. Iran will suspect all foreigners of collecting intelligence for Israel, America or others.
Finally, we should expect an uptick in misinformation and strategic influence operations that either support Iran or support Palestinian causes around the world. Demonstrations in support of Iran have already taken place in various western cities. These might increase in the coming days.
Implications for U.S. Domestic Politics
I will leave the experts on U.S. domestic politics to write up their assessments on what the U.S. strike means for the American polity. However, there are likely to be domestic ramifications of these strikes as well.
The American Strikes Increase Uncertainty
I will wrap up this quick assessment as I want to publish it and then watch the address by President Trump.
But before I finish, I think it is fair to assert that the trajectory of the war in the Middle East is now much more uncertain. Just because the U.S. administration thinks it is done with Iran for now, that does not mean the Iranians are done with America. What that means in the hours and days ahead remains to be seen.
Astute readers will note this was done on a Friday night, the dead news night, so Congress, oil prices, and the stock market have several days to calm down, and the public has several days to forget about it.
Mick, solid first take. Could not agree more that the Iranians get a distinct vote on where this goes. All eyes on the Straits of Hormuz.