An Oval Office Ambush

My initial assessment of the brawl in the Oval Office, and what the implications might be for the trajectory of the war in Ukraine.

Image: C-SPAN

I have empowered you to be a tough guy. President Trump, 28 February 2025

Today saw an appalling, abrasive live television interaction between the President of the United States and his Ukrainian counterpart. You can watch the entire thing here at C-Span, and I recommend you do. It is chilling to see the U.S. president and vice-president in full bully mode. There will be many implications of this meeting. As such, I have penned a short assessment, originally published by the Lowy Institute just minutes ago, which you can also read below.

“This is going to be great television…I will say that.” This is how the American president summed up the conclusion of the most fractious meeting to have occurred in front of journalists between an American president and his foreign counterpart in the modern era.

In a meeting in the White House today, the Ukrainian president was lectured to by the American president and vice-president, in front of television cameras, in what appears to be an orchestrated display of what power now looks like in the American polity. The meeting ended early, and the Ukrainian president left without signing the much-telegraphed minerals deal that has been discussed in recent weeks.

The signs earlier in the week had pointed to a more productive meeting. President Trump had rolled back his narrative about Zelenskyy being a dictator, and the minerals agreement may have seen America having an enduring interest in the security of Ukraine. All that disintegrated in an explosive, unseemly exchange between Zelenskyy, Trump and Vance. At times, the three shouted over each other in what could only be described as anti-diplomacy.

What are the immediate implications of the Oval Office brawl that will be studied for years to come?

First, The Ukraine-America relationship is now in freefall. Ukraine does not have a deal with the Americans. The U.S. president’s focus on ‘peace’ over ‘advantage’ means that he is focused on peace at any price. Ukraine is not. It cannot and should not accept an unjust peace that will subject them to the predations of Russia. Ukrainians in occupied territories know exactly what it is like to live under the Russian boot. Ukraine does not want that, and any American facilitation of such an outcome would be strategically inept and would comprise gross moral cowardice on the part of the American leader.

Second, while the Americans have been a vital aid provider for Ukraine in the past three years, that aid appears to potentially be at threat. The Europeans need to act fast to ensure that any drop off in American aid can be at least partially backfilled from the EU and other sources on the continent. While there will be some, most likely Macron, who will want to act as peacemaker between Trump and Zelenskyy, this will just be a band aid.

There is a deep-seated hostility from Trump and Vance towards Zelenskyy that defies short-term fixes. Europe needs to step up now, increase their defence spending and production to provide increased aid to Ukraine and a significantly enhanced deterrent against Russian aggression.

Third, while it might earn the ire of the Trump administration, statements of support for Ukraine now are even more important than ever. This will provide an important test of courage for many western leaders. But it is a test they must pass. Remaining silent in the face this bullying of the Ukrainian president is not an option. As we say in the Army, the standard you walk past is the standard you accept. What will the Australian prime minister do?

Finally, the big winner in the Oval Office on Friday did not even have to participate in the fight. President Putin, whose disinformation campaign has cleared influenced the Trump administration, will continue his onslaught in Ukraine to solidify the notion only Russia can win this war. It isn’t true, but that doesn’t matter. If the Trump administration believes it, facts have no bearing.

The events in the Oval Office will be amplified by Putin and his Chinese counterpart to provide further ‘evidence’ of the decline of the west. Today’s events, and those of the past few weeks, demonstrate that we are now in the midst of a full-scale geopolitical tempest that Putin and Xi are sure to exploit.

Sadly, the ultimate outcome of the raucous meeting in the Oval Office is that this unnecessary war, begun by Putin and in which he has overseen large-scale rape, looting, torture, murder and destruction, will continue. Indeed, the war may intensify in the coming weeks.

The soldiers and citizens of Ukraine, having just commemorated three years of death and destruction at the hands of Russia, deserved better than this.

This initial assessment of the Zelenskyy-Trump meeting in the White House was originally published at the Lowy Interpreter, which you can read here.