Approaching Positional Warfare

A November Update on Ukraine’s Multi-dimensional Campaigns

Image: @MilitaryLand at Twitter/X

It has been a hectic month since my last Ukraine campaign update.

First, Ukraine has continued its offensive operations on the ground in the south and in the east, although gains over that time have been minor. These ground offensives have been accompanied by Ukraine’s continuing strategic and operational strike programs which has most recently seen strikes on Russian logistics, various sites in Crimea and attacks against landing craft and a missile corvette from the Black Sea Fleet.

Second, Russia has continued its stepped-up attacks on the ground while slightly easing its missile strikes against civilian infrastructure. Over the past month, the Russians have conducted attacks in the northeast, around Bakhmut and a significant series of attacks around Avidiivka. None of these made substantial progress but they have gained ground. It demonstrates that Russia has the reserves for offensive action, and that it is trying to destroy any Ukrainian momentum going into winter – and intensify the gloomy mood being shown about Ukraine’s future prospects by some in Western capitals.

Finally, the horrendous attacks by Hamas on Israeli civilians on 7 October continues to have an impact on regional and global security affairs. The ongoing Israeli operation in Gaza is consuming the attention of the world’s media, denying the attention that is needed by Ukraine to gain the support it needs going into 2024. Russia, a supporter of Hamas, is also using the situation in Gaza to create or magnify political rifts among NATO members.

Russia, as I wrote here, is a major beneficiary of the Hamas attacks. And China is also benefiting from another major political and strategic distraction for an American administration – and a U.S. Congress - that seeks to shift its strategic main effort to the Indo-Pacific region.

What does this all mean for the overall Ukrainian war effort and the status of its different campaigns?