How China Benefits from a Russian Long War in Ukraine
China and its ongoing support for Russia is likely to be an important topic at this week’s Washington NATO summit.
China is the main enabler of Russia’s war aggression against Ukraine.
The NATO 75th anniversary summit will be held in Washington DC in the coming 48 hours. Key issues on the agenda will include the war in Ukraine, enhanced deterrence and improving military interoperability. But it is likely that China’s support to Russia’s war effort in Ukraine will also be a topic of discussion. As outgoing NATO Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, recently noted, China is "sharing a lot of technologies, [like] micro-electronics, which are key for Russia to build missiles, weapons they use against Ukraine…at some stage, we should consider some kind of economic cost if China doesn't change their behaviour".
Last week, reports emerged of Chinese and Russian companies allegedly beginning co-development this year of an attack drone similar to the Iranian Shahed uncrewed aerial vehicle (UAV) that has been deployed in the thousands by Russia against Ukrainian targets. Last year, a Chinese defence company unveiled an attack drone which it called the Sunflower 200. This aerial vehicle looked very similar to the Iranian- Shahed-136 drone that has been procured and employed by Russia against Ukraine.
Also last week, Russian President Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping travelled to the capital of Kazakhstan for a meeting of leaders from the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). The joint communique from this meeting stated that “the circle of states that stand for a just world order and are ready to resolutely defend their legitimate rights and protect traditional values is expanding.”
Putin and Xi’s relationship has bloomed over the past few years. The two leaders have met several times since Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022. As Alexander Gabuev recently wrote in Foreign Affairs:
The tightening of this alignment between Russia and China is one of the most important geopolitical outcomes of Putin’s war against Ukraine. The conscious efforts of Xi and Putin drive much of this reorientation, but it is also the byproduct of the deepening schism between the West and both countries.
Given how this relationship between the two authoritarians has blossomed since the beginning of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Chinese leader must see a benefit to China not only in a closer relationship with Russia, but in the ongoing war itself. It begs the question, what does China gain from the war, and how might China benefit from a continuation of Russia’s long-war strategy in Ukraine?
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