Crossing the Dnipro

The Implications of Ukraine's River Crossing Operation in Kherson

Source: @GlasnostGone on Twitter/X

The purpose of any river crossing is to project combat power across a water obstacle in order to accomplish a mission. A river crossing is a special operation. It re- quires specific procedures for success, because the water obstacle prevents normal ground maneuver. It also requires unique technical support and more detailed planning and control measures than normal tactical operations.

River Crossing Operations, US Army Doctrine, FM 90-13, 1992

Military river crossing operations are difficult to plan and execute. The challenges of terrain, river currents and profiles, and the availability of bridging and rafts are magnified by enemy action designed to interfere with or halt friendly river crossings.

Back in May 2022, the Russians attempted an opposed river crossing of the Severskyi Donets in eastern Ukraine. This Russian river crossing operation gained a lot of attention at the time because it resulted in the loss of at least a Russian battalion tactical group as well as critical engineer equipment. It has been studied from multiple different perspectives since, including the application of combined arms operations, the training of troops, military leadership and operational art.

An important consideration for river crossings is that they are only undertaken if absolutely necessary. The resources needed - engineers, bridges, artillery - are closely husbanded by senior military commanders. And it is always better to capture a bridge than having to build one!

Therefore, such operations normally only occur on an axis of advance that is a main effort (or about to become the main effort).

Over the past several weeks, a small-scale river crossing operation has taken place on the left bank of the Dnipro River. Between Kherson and Nova Kakhovka, the Ukrainians have crossed the river with battalion-sized combat elements.

Both the Ukrainians and Russians, having thrown themselves against each other at various places along the front line for last five months, are searching for up-until-now unidentified opportunities for territorial gain, and enemy attrition, before winter.

For the Russians, the Avdiivka sector is the area where they believe the Ukrainians are weakest and where they may be an opportunity to gain ground, straighten their front line and also gain a political and strategic information victory before the onset of winter. The Russian commander, General Gerasimov, is also probably testing whether the Ukrainians are close to reaching the culminating point in their offensive capacity.

Ukraine appears to have sensed an opportunity further to the west in Kherson. There is still much we don’t know about this operation. But, might it mean for the Ukrainian war effort, and the overall trajectory of the war?