How Well is Russia’s 2024 Offensive Really Going?

A Special Assessment of Russian Progress (or lack of).

Image: Ukrainian Bradley IFV (@MilitaryLand)

There has been much discussion in the past six months about the series of Russian offensives currently being waged across eastern and southern Ukraine and in the skies above it. There are many views about how successful Russia actually is in this latest phase of the war. It certainly has strategic momentum with its ground and aerial assaults on Ukraine. Few analysts of the war doubt that Russia has the initiative, at least it does at present.

But, to make an objective assessment of how Russia’s 2024 campaigns in Ukraine is going, one requires a sense of what Russia most likely set out to achieve in Ukraine this year. Back in early April, I explored how the Russians might view success in 2024. You can read that article here.

Before I summarise the probable Russian measures of success for 2024, and how they are progressing in achieving these objectives, I want to cover two other topics briefly. First, a précis of the four relevant levels of war. This is because each proposed Russian measure of success for 2024 includes a description of the level of war they are most applicable to.  And second, I will explore Putin’s higher-level objectives for 2024.

Levels of War

The tactical level is where battles and other forms of engagements between opposing military forces are conceived, planned, and executed to achieve military objectives. Tactical forces employ tactics to achieve the outcomes they have been given, informed by a mission statement from a superior headquarters.

The operational level is where tactical objectives and actions are sequenced and orchestrated (often as campaigns) to achieve military and strategic objectives. Importantly, much of the prioritization for allocation of forces, logistic support, intelligence, transport, and interdomain collaboration takes place at this level. It acts as the interface between the tactical and strategic levels of warfare.

The next level is the strategic level of war. The strategic level is about turning political objectives into action at the operational and tactical levels across multiple theatres as well as in non-physical domains such as influence operations and cyber activity.

Finally, there is the political level. This is the level at which political objectives are formed, and where resources are decided upon that permit military organisations to act strategically, operationally and tactically. But political effectiveness is also about gaining the support of a population, building and sustaining alliances, and influencing opinion inside and beyond one’s national borders.

What does Putin want in 2024?

There is little mystery about Putin's objectives for his war against Ukraine in 2024. Described in his speeches on February 21 and 24, 2022, in the many communiques since, and in his post-election victory speech in March 2024, Putin aims to do everything possible to ensure that the world understands that Ukraine is not a sovereign nation. It goes without saying that Putin will want to keep western politicians cowed an in a state of ‘escalation terror’ by regular reference to nuclear weapons.

Additionally, Putin, who wants to reassert what he describes as Russian civilisation in his part of the world. He has also has consistently portrayed Russia as the victim of a NATO plot and Ukrainian "Nazis". As he noted in his March post-election speech:

When we are united, I think it’s become clear for everyone, whoever wants to threaten us or bully us, whoever wants to suppress us, our will, they were not successful in the past and they will not be successful in the future in trying to suppress us.

This is a narrative that he will continue to roll out throughout 2024. As Illia Ponomarenko describes it in his excellent new book, I Will Show You How It Was, these Putin speeches and accompanying misinformation has become a “hateful propagandistic stink wafting from the east”.

An Assessment of Russia’s 2024 Measures of Success

Russia is currently undertaking ground offensives along the following axes of advance: Belgorod-Kharkiv; Bakhmut; Avdiivka; Kupyansk; Novopavlivka; Robotyne; and,Kherson. It is also waging a nightly air, missile and drone campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure and civilian targets, a tactical ground attack campaign utilising long-range glide bombs and a strategic misinformation and diplomatic campaign.

But how is Russia going in these multiple campaigns?