Improving Australian Aid for Ukraine
A strategy is needed that explains purpose, increases aid, broadens diplomatic assistance and coordinates it across the government.
Over the past two years, Ukrainian sacrifices have been buying time for Western democracies to rediscover the significance of democracy and defending it.
The recent debate about the future of the Australian Army’s decommissioned Taipan helicopters has highlighted a lack of coordination and transparency in Australia’s approach to supporting Ukraine. More importantly, Australia lacks a strategy that explains the purpose of supporting Ukraine, what kinds of assistance might be provided, and how this can be coordinated in a whole-of-government manner.
Shortly after the Russian invasion in February 2022, Australia offered its support for Ukraine. Thereafter followed several assistance packages, consisting of military equipment including Javelin missiles, Bushmaster vehicles, trucks and armoured personnel carriers. But over time, and with a change in government, attention and interest has waned here – and in other democracies. Now, notwithstanding the early support provided, according to Kiel Institute statistics Australia is the sixth-largest non-NATO contributor as a percentage of GDP.
This year will be a pivotal one in the war. The Russians, having mobilised their defence industry in September 2022, now hold a clear production advantage. Combined with munitions provided by Iran and North Korea, this advantage in areas such as drones and artillery sees the Russians having the initiative on the battlefield until Western production can catch up. Ukraine will remain largely on the defensive in 2024 as it absorbs the Russian onslaught, and reconstitutes its military, in the hope it can conduct large-scale offensive operations in 2025.
The Australian government needs to outline the strategic purpose for investing in the defence of Ukraine – and the defeat of Russia.
But Ukraine needs more support to get through this year. With Russia likely to launch more offensives in the lead-up to the March presidential election, the need for military and other aid is urgent. To make matters worse, a failure of leadership by the US Congress has resulted in no new American aid packages for the near future. Every bit of assistance from other nations including Australia is vital.
Read the rest of this (for free) in my new article for The Lowy Institute here.
I still don’t understand how come the collective West can’t outsupply Russia. If not now, when? When Russia is over the border and approaching central Europe?
A timely piece. The next two weeks could be pivotal -- with the EU Summit and a potential vote in Congress -- and a contribution from Australia now could influence the narrative. Hopefully your government (and all Western governments) are listening and prepared to act.