Issues in Australia's Defence Strategy
A new section that covers the people, strategy, alliances, politics, technology and organisations related to Australia's approach to defending itself.
For several decades, I was a member of the Australian Army. During my 35 years of regular service, I also served in a variety of joint appointments as well as in strategy and policy positions in Canberra. These included serving in Military Strategy Branch, the Military Strategic Commitments Branch (both joint organisations) as well as Director General of Army Strategy. In these appointments, and others while serving in Canberra, I had the opportunity to contribute to an array of strategic initiatives and provide input into White Papers and other government policy related to defence.
As such, I have a useful knowledge of defence strategy in Australia and its challenges.
I often write and speak about these challenges (as well as opportunities) in the media here and have written about them frequently (although not here on substack as much). Therefore, I have decided to add a section to Futura Doctrina that is specific to Australia and the pathway forward for its defence in the 21st century.
Now some may ask, isn’t the coverage of Australia in addition to Ukraine, Gaza and Taiwan a lot or perhaps even too much? My answer is, not really.
The reason for this is that my first love, and most important studies, are related to the phenomenon of war itself. This insatiable curiosity war and humans was sparked when I was a young Army captain working as an aide de camp to a general in 1998. The general was going to give a speech about the future of warfare, and asked me to prepare a slide deck for him.
Upon reading his speech, I was hooked. Subsequently, I wrote about future warfare as my Masters paper at the U.S. Marine Corps School of Advanced Warfighting (subsequently published here) and on return to Australia after that course, was posted to the Directorate of Future Warfighting Concepts in Canberra. Ever since, I have had a strong inclination towards the study of future war, and the design of military forces (people, ideas, organisations, technologies, etc) to be most effective for the likely environments in which future conflict will be conducted.
I strongly believe that past, current and future war cannot be understood without a deep appreciation of the theories and conduct of war. As Sir Michael Howard wrote, we must study war in width, depth and context.
Therefore, I spend a lot of time reviewing past and contemporary conflicts - which includes theory, people, technology, strategy, societies, information and industry - to provide the foundation for my exploration of war (or future wars) such as in Ukraine, Gaza, Taiwan and broader Indo-Pacific defence and national security issues.
This is the reason I wrote and published my first book, War Transformed, in February 2022. One of the most important elements of the book is my examination of the changing character of war. In it, I list trends impacting on military endeavours everywhere. Every country around the world is impacted by these mega trends in military affairs. These trends, as I wrote in War Transformed, are as follows:
The battle of signatures, where military organisations must minimize their tactical to strategic signatures, use recorded signatures to deceive, and be able to detect and exploit adversary signatures—across all the domains in which humans compete and fight.
New forms of mass, where military organizations must build forces with the right balance of expensive platforms and cheaper, smaller autonomous systems that will be more adaptable to different missions and be more widely available.
More integrated thinking and action, where unlike the counterinsurgencies of the past two decades, future military institutions must be able to operate in all domains concurrently and integrate into broader national strategies.
Human-machine integration, where robotic systems, big data, high-performance computing, and algorithms will be absorbed into military organizations in larger numbers to augment human physical and cognitive capabilities, to generate greater mass, more lethal deterrent capabilities, more rapid decision-making, and more effective integration.
The evolving fight for influence, where disruptive twenty-first-century technologies have not only enhanced the lethality of military forces at greater distances, but they also now provide the technological means to target and influence various populations in a way that has not been possible before.
Greater sovereign resilience, where nations must mobilize people for large military and national challenges, while also developing secure sources of supply within national and alliance frameworks to ensure that supply chains cannot be a source of coercion by strategic competitors or potential adversaries.
A new appreciation of time. Perhaps the most important trend. The speed of planning, decision-making, and action is increasing due to hypersonic weapons, faster media cycles impacting political decisions, and the potential for AI to speed up decision-making at many levels. Concurrently, we are facing a long-term period of “cold but connected” competition and conflict with China. Future military organizations must ensure their people and institutions are able to intellectually and physically deal with the environment through better use of time for improved decision-making.
Australia is subject to all of these trends like every other nation.
Therefore, as I have over many years, I will continue to apply my study of the phenomenon of war to the examination of Australian defence issues. This will include articles here on the following topics:
Defence and military strategy.
Force structure.
Military readiness.
New technologies and their role in defence.
The role of defence industry in defending Australia.
The people dimensions of leadership, recruiting, training and education.
To whet your appetite, I have included below a selection of some of my analysis of issues related to the defence of Australia from the last couple of years. I will still be writing about Ukraine, but I also look forward to periodically writing on this topic and informing readers in Australia and around the world about the challenges, opportunities and government policies related to the defence of Australia.
Articles Published at the Center for Strategic and International Studies
The Task Ahead for Rapid Capability Enhancement in Australian Defense. In this article, I explore key priorities that need to be explored in the Defence Strategic Review. You can read the piece, published in August 2022, here.
The Clock Is Ticking: The Australian Defense Review and Time. In this piece I examine why time is such an important aspect of defence planning, and why using it wisely is crucial. It builds on my exploration of the ‘time’ trend in War Transformed. You can read this September 2022 commentary here.
AUKUS Submarine Agreement: Historic but Not Yet Smooth Sailing. This article explores the AUKUS program, its opportunities and challenges. Published in March 2023, you can read it here.
A New Defense Review for Australia. This commentary takes an initial look at the Australian Defence Strategic Review, which was released in April 2023. You can read this piece here.
Articles and Interviews with ABC Australia
Lessons from Ukraine conflict shaping how Australian Defence Force troops prepare for war. An examination of how the war in Ukraine should be shaping thinking about the future structure and strategies of the Australian Defence Force. Read the article here.
China closely watching Australia's response to Ukraine war. In this radio interview, I discuss how the Chinese will be watching Australia’s adaptation as a result of its observation of the war in Ukraine. Listen in here.
Nuclear submarine deal will deeply impact the Australian Defence Force. Has the government got it right? Here I explore the opportunity costs of the very expensive AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine program, and whether it provides the right value for a country of Australia’s size and means. Read the article here.
Articles Published in the Sydney Morning Herald (Paywall)
In preparing for future warfare, there are no risk-free approaches. This commentary, written in the aftermath of a helicopter training accident that killed four Australian soldiers, examines the ongoing need for conducting risky peacetime training to ensure our soldiers are adequately prepared for war. Read it here.
How China is using Ukraine to wargame Taiwan. This piece examines looks at how China is likely to be learning from the war in Ukraine, and adapting its approach to military operations and war. You can read it here.
A tough lesson for Australia as Ukraine runs short of munitions. This commentary covers the issue of defence industrial production, and how the lessons of mass use of munitions in Ukraine should inform expanded production in Australia (but hasn’t). The article is available here.
Lessons for Australia from Putin’s missile attacks on Ukraine. The Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukraine has driven a massive program of strategic adaptation by the Ukrainians to build an effective air, missile and drone defence system. This article explores the lessons of this for Australia. You can read it here.
Hypersonic missiles are just the start if Australia is to secure its sovereignty. An exploration of Australia’s research of hypersonic technologies and how it, along with other technologies, can build a more resilient and self-reliant approach to defence. You can read the article here.
Australia needs a national security strategy. Now. A final article, which builds on the work of Rory Metcalf, to argue for a National Security Strategy for Australia. Yes, its true, we don’t have one (at least not a published one). Read the article here.