Learning from Ukraine

Another visit to Kyiv

Some of you may have noticed that over the past week or so, I have not been publishing here or on Twitter as frequently as normal. That is because this week, I have been visiting Ukraine. 

Ever since my visit last September, when I also had the opportunity to meet with President Zelensky, I knew I had to return to this amazing city, capital of a courageous and resilient nation.  So, I decided to return as soon as I was able to.

Part of the reason was to increase my knowledge about this war, and the large scale Russian invasion that began in February 2022. There is much that occurs in war that is hard to appreciate from the other side of the world. Just as we do with historical battlefield staff rides in the military, you have to walk the ground to understand what is going on in a war.

And ‘the war’ is my focus. While many are focused on particular battles in the war (don’t get me wrong, this is important), my interest lies with how nations prepare for, deter and fight wars.  And there is much in this war worthy of study for the insights that can be useful for other countries. Whether it is military affairs, diplomacy, economics, alliance management or other aspects of war, there is a massive trove of observations and lessons emerging from the war.

I have written before about how all wars are a mix of continuity and change. So it is with this war.

We have witnessed over the past 13 months forms of war such as armoured combat, trench fighting, aerial warfare, the bombardment of cities and the deliberate, systemic targeting of civilians that has featured in other wars of the last century (or even before that). Additionally, old ideas such as the importance of good leadership, civil defence, effective logistics and tactical competence have been reinforced.

But there have also been things that are newer that may result in changes to how others prepare for and fight wars. The meshing of civilian, government and military sensors, analysis and dissemination in a new kind of intelligence cycle is speeding up the pace of war in some areas. It is also making war more transparent and in some respects is democratising conflict by using more civilian participants to support combat, influence and strike operations.

The impact of crowd funding is also relatively new. In Ukraine and beyond, everyday citizens have raised, and continue to generate, funds to purchase everything from socks to drones. While no doubt a headache at times for military logisticians, it has undoubtedly made a material and psychological effectiveness of those fighting in this war.

So for the last few days I have had the opportunity to speak with a range of people here in Kyiv about Ukraine’s strategy, it’s military preparations before the war, how it is fighting this one, how it is training and commanding forces, and the challenges the nation will face post-victory. In doing so, I have spoken with senior government and military personnel as well as people from academia and journalists. All have been generous with their time and have been very forthright in providing insights into the war. I am deeply indebted to them all.

What happens with all this material?

First, it provides background for my regularly published columns for the Sydney Morning Herald and ABC Australia, as well as my Twitter threads and Substack page. This is very important because the information from my discussions here adds context, breadth and depth to my work on Ukraine.

But, it is also research for my next book. I am preparing a manuscript that explores the lessons of this war.  It is due to my publisher in August this year. The key themes of the book - strategy, leadership and adaptation - provide the framework for nearly 20 chapters examining many of the strategic, operational and tactical areas of this war. I can’t wait for you to read it.

Perhaps the biggest takeaway from this trip - and this is not a new insight but the reinforcement of an exisiting one - is what a wonderful, generous, proud, resilient, brave and determined people the Ukrainians are. They have stood up before the world in the past year and have shown us all why defending our values and our systems from predators like Putin remains a core undertaking of democracies.

Through it all, they have suffered greatly at the hands of an aging, vicious dictator seeking to extinguish their culture and their nationhood. The manner in which they have defended their country deserves our awe and admiration. And it is worthy of being studied for the lessons that can be gleaned about deterring, or if necessary fighting, wars in the 21st century.

I leave Kyiv, and Ukraine, better informed and with a sense of sadness at leaving this extraordinary place. But, I know I will be back.

(P.S. I wrote this on an iPhone - please excuse any errors!)