"Next Time in Moscow!": Initial Assessment of the Alaska Summit

For now, the grim reality for Ukrainians and Ukraine’s armed forces is that the fight will go on.

Image: Reuters

There is no deal until there is a deal. I will call President Zelenskyy. It is ultimately up to them. President Trump

The much-anticipated Alaska Summit between the US president and the leader of Russia has just concluded with a press conference. No questions were taken after the leader statements, which indicates there were no major decisions taken.

Putin is no longer an isolated leader and got a free ride in the U.S. president’s limo.

Below is a quick summary of the press conference which just concluded, and my initial assessment of the comments by Putin and Trump.

The Press Conference

Putin: "Good afternoon, dear neighbour..."

Putin also provided a history lesson from Putin on the close relationship between Russia and America in WW2 to achieve a common victory.

Putin: “Sooner or later we need to move on from the present situation.”

Putin: “Me and Mr Trump have a good relationship”.

Putin: "Ukraine is a brotherly nation...we need to remove all the primary causes of the conflict."

This didn’t fill me with confidence that Putin has shifted from his key objective for the war - destruction of Ukraine as a sovereign state.

Putin said that he agrees that the security of Ukraine should be ensured.

“I agree with (US President Donald) Trump that the security of Ukraine must be secured, and of course, we are ready to work on that…I would like to hope that the agreement that we’ve reached together will help us bring closer that goal and will pave the path towards peace in Ukraine.”

Putin: “Business cooperation has tremendous potential. Artic cooperation also has potential…we need to turn the page and go back to cooperation.”

There was a huge amount of flattery of Trump by Putin in his comments.

Putin: “I tried to convince my previous American colleague that it should not be the point of no return when it came to hostilities. Trump has said that if he was President, there would have been no war…I can confirm that.”

Trump: “There is no deal until there is a deal.”

“We made some great progress today….some previous meetings were interfered with by the Russia, Russia, Russia hoax. What was done was very criminal.”

Trump: “We had an extremely productive meeting…many points were agreed to. Some points were not agreed to.”

Trump: “We are going to stop thousands of people per week being killed…I look forward to our next meeting.”

Putin: “Next time in Moscow!”

Initial assessment

Some initial thoughts. I am sure we will find out more later today.

First, Putin appeared to be more upbeat at the press conference than Trump did. While Trump did not appear downcast, there was a marked disparity in the overall posture of the two leaders. This indicates that no overall agreement has been reached but that some small points of common ground may have been agreed.

Of course, Putin just being in America is a win for the Russian. No new sanctions on Russia will make Putin happy. And Putin was happy to do some re-writing of history by agreeing that there would have been no war in Ukraine if Trump was president.

Second, Putin was laying on the flattery of Trump in a big way. This is an attempt by Putin to ensure the next meeting is also a one-on-one and does not include Ukraine. It will also be an attempt to split Trump from European leaders by convincing him that Putin is not as bad as European leaders have portrayed. Putin also held out the prospect of business ties.

Third, ultimately, Putin is paving the way for future talks with Trump. Putin is too good a manipulator to think he will get what he wants in a single meeting. Putin will probably have mapped out a campaign of meetings and conversations with Trump to get what he wants. This is just one of those conversations.

Fourth, there were no details on what was agreed and what was not. Trump was clear he would be making a bunch of phone calls to Ukraine’s president and European leaders. We may find out more then.

Fifth, Putin made it clear in the press conference that the root causes of the conflict must be resolved. This indicates that he has not stepped back from his key objectives of the war, which remain the destruction of Ukraine’s sovereignty, removal of its capacity to defend itself and ensuring Ukraine can never join NATO.

This is likely to remain a key sticking point in future talks.

Sixth, this may be the official start of the real peace process, notwithstanding the lack of any discernible outcomes from this summit. There have been many meetings between officials in the preceding months, but this US-Russia summit may in the future be seen as the true beginning of achieving a ceasefire in the war in Ukraine. Let’s wait and see.

Finally, there was no ceasefire agreed to – at least not that has been discussed yet. As Trump noted, “there is no deal until there is a deal. I will call President Zelenskyy. It is ultimately up to them.”

Therefore, nothing in the meeting will – at this point – change things on the ground (and in the air) in Ukraine. The fighting continues, and Russia continued its overnight aerial attacks on Ukraine last night.

Overall, there do not appear to have been any positive outcomes for Ukraine from the meeting.

For now, the grim reality for Ukrainians and Ukraine’s armed forces is that the fight will go on.