President Trump 2.0 and Ukraine

My recent article on the implications of a second Trump administration for Ukraine.

I recently wrote a piece for the Lowy Institute that explored the implications of a Trump administration for the war in Ukraine. Below is a short excerpt.

There are some indicators about which way a second-term President Trump might lean. Presidential candidate Trump has claimed that he would end the Ukraine war quickly if he were elected. A plan drawn up by two former members of Trump’s National Security Council staff, Keith Kellogg and Fred Fleitz, proposes a ceasefire based on current frontlines on the battlefield, however this is not known to have been endorsed by Trump.

Vice-Presidential candidate JD Vance has been very open about his views on Ukraine. After Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Vance stated that “I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another.”

And, in a New York Times opinion piece in April 2024, Vance wrote that “Ukraine’s challenge is not the GOP; it’s math. Ukraine needs more soldiers than it can field, even with draconian conscription policies. And it needs more matériel than the United States can provide. This reality must inform any future Ukraine policy.”

Notwithstanding the apparently cordial Zelensky–Trump phone call in the wake of the Republican National Convention, a Trump administration will be difficult to navigate for the Ukrainians. In the most recent Pew Research Center survey, published in May, less than half of Republican Party voters have a favourable view of NATO compared to 75 per cent of Democratic Party voters. Nearly half (49%) of Republican voters believe the United States is giving too much aid to Ukraine.

If these sentiments are taken together with Trump’s role in encouraging a four-month interruption in US assistance to Ukraine in 2023, his assertions that he would let Russia “do whatever the hell they want” to NATO countries that did not spend enough, and his recent comments about Taiwan not paying America enough to guarantee its defence, a picture begins to form about how a US administration under Trump might approach the world. But it remains an opaque view at best.

You can read for the full article (for free) at this link.

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Since I wrote the above article, Trump and Zelenskyy have met in person. In September, Trump and Zelenskyy held a short meeting at the end of Zelenskyy’s visit to the United States. One report of the meeting described it as follows:

Trump and Zelensky spoke to Fox News and the former president said he “learned a lot” from the meeting. “We both want to see this end, and we both want to see a fair deal made,” he said. “It should stop and the president (Zelensky) wants it to stop, and I’m sure President Putin wants it to stop and that’s a good combination.”

Zelensky said: “Putin killed so many people and of course we need to do everything to pressure him to stop this war. He’s on our territory.” Zelensky invited Trump to visit Ukraine, and Trump replied: “I will”.

The Ukrainian president later posted on his Telegram channel that the pair had a “very meaningful meeting. We have a common view that the war in Ukraine must be stopped. Putin cannot win. Ukrainians must win,” he wrote.

Trump, meanwhile, said on his Truth Social account that if he is not elected president, "that war will never end, and will phase into WORLD WAR III".

And in the past 24 hours, President Zelenskyy has congratulated Trump on his victory. On his Twitter / X feed, Zelenskyy writes:

Congratulations to @realDonaldTrump on his impressive election victory!

I recall our great meeting with President Trump back in September, when we discussed in detail the Ukraine-U.S. strategic partnership, the Victory Plan, and ways to put an end to Russian aggression against Ukraine.

I appreciate President Trump’s commitment to the “peace through strength” approach in global affairs. This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer. I am hopeful that we will put it into action together.

While we know what candidate Trump and those around him have said about Ukraine, it remains to be seen exactly what President Trump 2.0 will do about the conflict. In his victory speech, Trump states that “I’m not going to start a war. I’m going to stop wars but this is also a massive victory for democracy and for freedom.”

The coming weeks, and months, will indicate just how much progress he can make on realizing this goal. The world is a very complex place, and the relationship between China, Russia, Iran and North Korea is continuing to deepen. As such, a second Trump administration will face an array of challenges in stopping wars.