This week, President Zelenskyy again travelled to Washington DC to discuss assistance for Ukraine. He met with Congressional leaders as well as President Biden. From the perspective of the Ukrainians, and the current U.S. administration, it was not a very successful visit to Washington. Congress is yet to pass the funding bill that will see more assistance to Ukraine in 2024, as well as aid for Israel and Taiwan. As Politico described the situation:
Border negotiations wouldn’t be completed by the year’s end, meaning Zelenskyy will leave Washington no closer to guaranteed future support, despite his salesmanship around town.
As such, Zelenskyy returns home to Ukraine without any further commitments of U.S. aid beyond that which has already been approved. Therefore, what might be the key take aways from his visit?
First, it is clear that the adulation with which he was received during his Washington DC visit in December 2022 has largely evaporated. With recent polls indicating growing U.S. disinterest in supporting Ukraine, some members of Congress see little interest in supporting this issue if it impacts their electoral prospects.
Second, the centrality of U.S. support is under appreciated by many in Congress. While not taking away from the courage and sacrifice of Ukrainians, U.S. weapons and intelligence are critical to Ukraine’s war to defend itself and eject the Russians from Ukrainian territory. And with finite stocks of Soviet-era weapons and munitions, western (particularly U.S.) weapons and munitions will only increase in importance to Ukraine. European production is not going to cut it.
U.S. support also has important knock-on effects with allies. It provides an example for others to emulate, and if this doesn’t work, at least embarrasses Europeans and others into providing more assistance. Remember the tank debate last year, where British and American commitments were crucial to finally forcing the Germans to allow Leopard 2 tanks to be donated to Ukraine.
Physical support - weapons, money - provides the teeth for political commitments such as ‘we are in this for as long as it takes’ from the United States. Those ‘promises’, appreciated and taken at face value by the Ukrainians, are starting to increasingly ring hollow. The DC events have confirmed for Putin that drawing out the war is the right strategy for Russia. Expect this to be an even bigger part of his messaging in the lead up to the 2024 Russian ‘elections’.
So what else might we take from the Zelenskyy visit?
First, it is a tremendous information operations coup for the Russians. I imagine many senior Russians doing a vodka-fuelled jig at the sight of Zelenskyy having to return to Washington under such circumstances. They will be even happier that he returns home empty handed. The U.S. Congress has done more for Russian morale with their behavior than anything Putin has done all year. And, of course, the lack of more U.S. aid also improves Russia’s 2024 and 2025 prospects.
Second, some in Russia might take this as a sign of which way the wind is blowing for next year’s U.S. presidential elections think it is a bit premature, but some in Russia will be very keen to read it this way. Putin for one will be keen to have his friend Donald back in the White House.
Third, this will continue to fuel Chinese and Russian narratives about U.S. reliability. Both have strategies to carve off U.S. allies in Europe, Asia and elsewhere. China in particular is using systems destruction warfare to do this. Chinese and Russian narratives, coupled with the behavior of the U.S. Congress is seeing some in Europe and Asia questioning U.S. security commitments and reliability.
While many in Congress rightly believe China is the major threat, their actions against Russia have a direct impact on the China-U.S. strategic competition. Having China as priority one threat to deal with doesn’t mean it is the only threat the U.S. must address. In backing away from Ukraine, U.S. legislators are also hurting US military and diplomatic efforts in the Indo-Pacific.
There are many failures that have led to this point.
There has been a failure of politicians in the U.S., and the west more broadly, to clearly and continuously explain why supporting Ukraine is vital for Ukraine and all democracies. Western politicians have lost the art of explaining and persuading their citizens. There has been a need for a constant drumbeat of speeches about the war and the purpose of supporting Ukraine, which western politicians have not delivered.
There has also been failure by those who promised so much (explicitly & implicitly) from this year’s counteroffensive. The difference between the promise and what has occurred this year has led to shock among electorates even though such setbacks are normal on any path to victory.
There has been a failure of strategic patience by politicians and citizens in the west. It was clear last year that this would be a long war, even with western support. Unfortunately democracies now have little patience with doing the hard things needed to defend their own, and having the patience to see major undertakings through to the end. This lack of strategic patience, particularly in our long term strategic competition with China, could prove fatal.
Finally, the Zelenskyy visit to Washington DC this week was the result of a failure of leadership by the U.S. and European elites who still don’t seem to have internalized that the international security paradigm of the past three decades is dead. We now exist in a fast moving environment where there is a near existential threat posed by the quad alignment of Russia, China, North Korea and Iran (the bad guys can also have ‘quads’). This ‘bad quad’ has also developed into the Arsenal of Authoritarians.
But western decision making still occurs at a slow, low-risk pace. We have been too slow to drag ourselves out of the comfortable governing tempo of the 9/11 era.
I hope and expect that some deal on U.S. aid will eventually be reached. But even if that is the case, the behaviour by U.S. legislators (and other countries parsimonious in their Ukraine support like Australia) will have a lasting impact.
This week proves to Xi and Putin that they are on the right track. It shows them the ‘east is rising, the west is declining’ message is no longer just a great narrative. It has provided additional proof (at least in their eyes) that this can be the reality if they just keep the pressure on the U.S, and other democracies.
I cannot imagine how grim the journey home for the Ukrainian President might be. A cold winter filled with Russian attacks on the ground and from the air awaits him on return to Kyiv. We have, collectively, failed President Zelenskyy and his people with the continuing delay in support. I hope we can do better in 2024.
Mick, a sobering and depressing outcome and analysis. I wish I could say you are wrong, but I cannot. The collective “west” has failed Ukraine this year. Policy and decision makers at US State and DoD are playing a game of CYA, worrying about their own reputations and advancement rather than the good of US national security interests. There are others who cannot change their thinking as it would make them either irrelevant or lose face. The GOP (Guys owned by Putin) that actively want to work with Putin and admire his authoritarian system that only serves him and the limited Oligarchy and not the Russian citizens.
There is a deal to be done to get aid to Ukraine...let’s hope it happens soon. But the deal will be costly domestically in the US as it will bow to legislative terrorists. And that does not bode well long term.