In the past few weeks, the Russian Army in Ukraine has increased its level of offensive operations against Ukrainian objectives.
For several months, the Russians have been undertaking offensive operations in the northeast of Ukraine. Ukraine has had to undertake a defensive campaign against the Russian attempts to advance in Luhansk oblast. The Russian offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line have made some gains, although these are yet to prove decisive.
These attacks, which remain ongoing, have included operations near Kupyansk as well as advances in the directions of Ivanivka (20 kilometres southeast of Kupyansk, Synkivka (8 kilometres northeast of Kupyansk) and Petropavlivka (7km east of Kupyansk). There have also been reports of elements of the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army conducting attacks in the vicinity of Kyslivka and Ivanivka.
In the second week of October, the Russians launched a significant offensive in the vicinity of Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine. This is increasingly assuming a ‘Bakhmut-like vibe’ with the Russians appearing to be fixated on capturing this area despite the significant casualties they have suffered there. Detailed examinations of this offensive have been undertaken by Olivia Yanchik at The Atlantic Council, @Tatarigami (at Frontelligence Insight), @WarTranslated and others.
These major Russian attacks on these two axes have been complemented by smaller scale attacks around Bakhmut, as well as attacks in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast. Finally, the Russians have been undertaking local counter attacks where the Ukrainians have been on the offensive.
These attacks have also been accompanied by a surge in Russian casualties. There are multiple organisations and individuals that track Russian casualties including the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence, the British Ministry of Defence and Ragnar Gudmundsson (on Twitter/x and Bluesky). According to the accumulated sources that are used by Gudmundsson, the the day with the highest losses of Russian troops so far since February 2022 occurred on 20 October. There has also been a spike in equipment losses. This provides an insight into both the increase in attacks (which generally result in higher casualties) and quantity of resources the Russians are dedicating to these attacks.
There are many reasons why the Russians may have decided to increase their level of offensive activity in the dying months of 2023. The aim of this article is to explore those reasons, as well as some of the perils of Russia’s increased tempo of attacks. And to do so, it is also important to appreciate who is making the key decisions about Russian operations.
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