My regular update on global conflict & confrontation. This week: Trump's defeat in Anchorage, the trajectory of the Ukraine War after Alaska, the Pacific theatre and my recommended Big Five reads.
Thank you Mick RYAN for your always interesting and insightful posts. They have stimulated these 6 observations and questions:
1. Should one not try and address the root causes in and of a violent conflict? In other words: should one not take the security interests and concerns of another power and the geo-political dynamics on its immediate border seriously? The tone of disdain about the Russian insistence on addressing the root causes of the conflict is a reflection of the persistent Western bias and arrogance the Rest is fed up with - disrespect is not a good basis for win-win cooperation.
2. The Japanese NIDS Report also reminds us that the Ukraine provocation by the BIDEN-JOHNSON regimes, was indeed an American-British engineered proxy war through indirect means. In Chapter 5 they observe:
“In the Russo-Ukrainian War, indirect intervention by the United States has contributed significantly to the defense of Ukraine through the provision of external military assistance to the country, while mitigating the depletion of U.S. strategic resources and the risk of escalation. Importantly, the indirect intervention approach in Europe has limited the impact on deterrence against China in the Western Pacific, the United States’ top priority, more than is generally believed. Rather ironically, the problem of the arms supply that the United States has struggled with in providing assistance to Ukraine has provided an opportunity for the country to reassess its long-shrinking defense industrial base. This means that the Western arms production system, including the United States, and its supply capacity will be relatively stronger in the post-Ukraine era.”
In other words the USA-West is in a logic of war - direct and indirect. The Rest are in a logic of development and non-zero sum multipolarity and cooperation.
This means the driver of global instability is the frightened West that perceives its decline and the rise of the Other, as a threat.
Is this not another root cause worth reflecting on too?
3. Singing the praises of the openly neo-Nazi Azov - the same extremist, racist ultra-nationalists that not only holds ZELENSKY hostage but has parallels in the Middle East, America and the rest of Europe - reflects poor strategic judgment and ethics. Europe has baked a serious security problem for itself - as WILLIAMSON correctly observed, “getting the strategic right” is more important that getting tactics right: the former is not easily repaired.
4. Developing a Comprehensive new European security architecture that takes the security of all countries - including Russia and Ukraine - into consideration is perhaps belated but remains a necessary condition for durable peace and stability. What this means is to stop NATO expansion in any direction - it is this expansion that is both the trigger and the reflection of the addiction to Western supremacy and zero-sum games. All other countries - including Russia - should similarly stop any further territorial expansion too - that is as obvious as it is fair.
5. In the era of multipolarity, the Second Wave of Decolonisation will lead to the decolonisation of many Western countries - including their colonies and proxies - which will include Taiwan. Decolonisation in the settler colonies like Australia or New Zealand simply entails the reconstitution of a fully democratic Polity that puts the historical injustice of colonisation (including its reparations) - and its slaughtered, exploited and terrorised victims - at the heart of this new Polity: encompassing a change in the identity narrative of the countries concerned. This is another example of a “root cause” that needs to be addressed - or do you think it’s fine to celebrate colonial invasions and destruction?
6. As the West declines and the Rest rises, it is in the interest of the West itself to learn, adapt and correct its past mistakes - specifically those heinous historical ones such as slavery, colonialism and imperialism. Their legacies have not yet been made undone.
Westerners that throw around terms like “war criminals” should perhaps reflect carefully now on what they are so arrogantly accusing Others of: they may soon find themselves in that precise dock; sooner than what they may think … the Afghans and Iraqis and Iranians - all of whom have been invaded and attacked by the West - directly and indirectly as the Japanese NIDS proudly dissects - may shift eventually from a demand for justice to one for revenge…perhaps some honesty and humility may be in order?
All of this "Ukraine provocation" stuff is Russian Foreign Ministry disinformation, Putin has had a longstanding intent to take Ukraine, in his adoption of Aleksandr Dugin's ideas as expressed in Foundations of Geopolitics (1997), set out in a review of that work by John Dunlop of Stanford University in 2004: "On the key question of Ukraine, Dugin underlines: "Ukraine as a state has no geopolitical meaning. It has no particular cultural import or universal significance, no geographic uniqueness, no ethnic exclusiveness" (377). "Ukraine as an independent state with certain territorial ambitions," he warns, "represents an enormous danger for all of Eurasia and, without resolving the Ukrainian problem, it is in general senseless to speak about continental politics" (348). And he adds that, "[T]he independent existence of Ukraine (especially within its present borders) can make sense only as a 'sanitary cordon'" (379). However, as we have seen, for Dugin all such "sanitary cordons" are inadmissible. Dugin speculates that three extreme western regions of Ukraine--Volynia, Galicia, and Trans- Carpathia--heavily populated with Uniates and other Catholics, could be permitted to form an independent "Western Ukrainian Federation." But this area must not under any circumstances be permitted to fall under Atlanticist control (382). With the exception of these three western regions, Ukraine, like Belorussia, is seen as an integral part of Eurasia-Russia." https://streamfortyseven.substack.com/p/for-reference-john-dunlops-review
From Putin's actions from 2004 to the present day, it's easily seen that he has adopted Dugin's plan - no need for "provocations"...
Nothing has changed on the Trump/Putin front has it.
Trump is just as unhinged as he has always been. This "performance" in Alaska only goes to show how far he has fallen.
Putin is just as obsessed with the destruction of Ukraine as he has always been. He doesn't seem to realise "HE" is the root cause of this war.
Putin's war against the "brotherly" Ukrainians continues, I'm glad he is not my brother.
What can be done about the glide bombs? I feel that, even more than the drones, these are responsible Ukrainians retreat from defensive positions.
Also, it was good to see that the poor Chinese boat handling skills were on display for all to see, even if it is doubtful that the rest of the Chinese navy suffer from the same lack of skills.
Putin owns Trump, not because of any dodgy maneuvers in a hotel, per the "Steele Report", but from a nearly 40 year long history of Russian mafia types and oligarchs bailing out Trump's failed and bankrupt business ventures - see https://www.americanprogress.org/article/cracking-the-shell/ (and if this link somehow goes away, I'll post the pdf file, available here: https://www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2018/03/TrumpFinancialTies-CrackingShell1.pdf). I'm sure that Putin probably gave this chain around Trump's neck a good jerk, and that's probably why Trump wasn't so jolly. And I'm sure Putin has a lot more kompromat on him, too, enough to hang him out to dry if need be.
I concur with Andre's comments that your comments and analyses are always welcomed and incisive. If you just read mainstream media's treatment of the war in Ukraine and China's activities in the Pacific, you would have an entirely different and shallower understanding (and, frankly in many cases, a false understanding) of what is actually going on. One brief question: did you see that Trump is claiming that Xi told him he will not invade Ukraine while he is President! Quite something, huh? Deserving of the Nobel Peace Prize...!
Is the Mick Ryan who liked my comment the one who writes Futura Doctrina? If so, I love your analyses and commentary too! I get so much out of the incisive and probing work both you and Mr. Freedman (as well as a few others) do. I wish more people read and absorbed them.
very important issue and a good read. thank you. support Ukraine, please
Thank you Mick RYAN for your always interesting and insightful posts. They have stimulated these 6 observations and questions:
1. Should one not try and address the root causes in and of a violent conflict? In other words: should one not take the security interests and concerns of another power and the geo-political dynamics on its immediate border seriously? The tone of disdain about the Russian insistence on addressing the root causes of the conflict is a reflection of the persistent Western bias and arrogance the Rest is fed up with - disrespect is not a good basis for win-win cooperation.
2. The Japanese NIDS Report also reminds us that the Ukraine provocation by the BIDEN-JOHNSON regimes, was indeed an American-British engineered proxy war through indirect means. In Chapter 5 they observe:
“In the Russo-Ukrainian War, indirect intervention by the United States has contributed significantly to the defense of Ukraine through the provision of external military assistance to the country, while mitigating the depletion of U.S. strategic resources and the risk of escalation. Importantly, the indirect intervention approach in Europe has limited the impact on deterrence against China in the Western Pacific, the United States’ top priority, more than is generally believed. Rather ironically, the problem of the arms supply that the United States has struggled with in providing assistance to Ukraine has provided an opportunity for the country to reassess its long-shrinking defense industrial base. This means that the Western arms production system, including the United States, and its supply capacity will be relatively stronger in the post-Ukraine era.”
In other words the USA-West is in a logic of war - direct and indirect. The Rest are in a logic of development and non-zero sum multipolarity and cooperation.
This means the driver of global instability is the frightened West that perceives its decline and the rise of the Other, as a threat.
Is this not another root cause worth reflecting on too?
3. Singing the praises of the openly neo-Nazi Azov - the same extremist, racist ultra-nationalists that not only holds ZELENSKY hostage but has parallels in the Middle East, America and the rest of Europe - reflects poor strategic judgment and ethics. Europe has baked a serious security problem for itself - as WILLIAMSON correctly observed, “getting the strategic right” is more important that getting tactics right: the former is not easily repaired.
4. Developing a Comprehensive new European security architecture that takes the security of all countries - including Russia and Ukraine - into consideration is perhaps belated but remains a necessary condition for durable peace and stability. What this means is to stop NATO expansion in any direction - it is this expansion that is both the trigger and the reflection of the addiction to Western supremacy and zero-sum games. All other countries - including Russia - should similarly stop any further territorial expansion too - that is as obvious as it is fair.
5. In the era of multipolarity, the Second Wave of Decolonisation will lead to the decolonisation of many Western countries - including their colonies and proxies - which will include Taiwan. Decolonisation in the settler colonies like Australia or New Zealand simply entails the reconstitution of a fully democratic Polity that puts the historical injustice of colonisation (including its reparations) - and its slaughtered, exploited and terrorised victims - at the heart of this new Polity: encompassing a change in the identity narrative of the countries concerned. This is another example of a “root cause” that needs to be addressed - or do you think it’s fine to celebrate colonial invasions and destruction?
6. As the West declines and the Rest rises, it is in the interest of the West itself to learn, adapt and correct its past mistakes - specifically those heinous historical ones such as slavery, colonialism and imperialism. Their legacies have not yet been made undone.
Westerners that throw around terms like “war criminals” should perhaps reflect carefully now on what they are so arrogantly accusing Others of: they may soon find themselves in that precise dock; sooner than what they may think … the Afghans and Iraqis and Iranians - all of whom have been invaded and attacked by the West - directly and indirectly as the Japanese NIDS proudly dissects - may shift eventually from a demand for justice to one for revenge…perhaps some honesty and humility may be in order?
All of this "Ukraine provocation" stuff is Russian Foreign Ministry disinformation, Putin has had a longstanding intent to take Ukraine, in his adoption of Aleksandr Dugin's ideas as expressed in Foundations of Geopolitics (1997), set out in a review of that work by John Dunlop of Stanford University in 2004: "On the key question of Ukraine, Dugin underlines: "Ukraine as a state has no geopolitical meaning. It has no particular cultural import or universal significance, no geographic uniqueness, no ethnic exclusiveness" (377). "Ukraine as an independent state with certain territorial ambitions," he warns, "represents an enormous danger for all of Eurasia and, without resolving the Ukrainian problem, it is in general senseless to speak about continental politics" (348). And he adds that, "[T]he independent existence of Ukraine (especially within its present borders) can make sense only as a 'sanitary cordon'" (379). However, as we have seen, for Dugin all such "sanitary cordons" are inadmissible. Dugin speculates that three extreme western regions of Ukraine--Volynia, Galicia, and Trans- Carpathia--heavily populated with Uniates and other Catholics, could be permitted to form an independent "Western Ukrainian Federation." But this area must not under any circumstances be permitted to fall under Atlanticist control (382). With the exception of these three western regions, Ukraine, like Belorussia, is seen as an integral part of Eurasia-Russia." https://streamfortyseven.substack.com/p/for-reference-john-dunlops-review
From Putin's actions from 2004 to the present day, it's easily seen that he has adopted Dugin's plan - no need for "provocations"...
Nothing has changed on the Trump/Putin front has it.
Trump is just as unhinged as he has always been. This "performance" in Alaska only goes to show how far he has fallen.
Putin is just as obsessed with the destruction of Ukraine as he has always been. He doesn't seem to realise "HE" is the root cause of this war.
Putin's war against the "brotherly" Ukrainians continues, I'm glad he is not my brother.
What can be done about the glide bombs? I feel that, even more than the drones, these are responsible Ukrainians retreat from defensive positions.
Also, it was good to see that the poor Chinese boat handling skills were on display for all to see, even if it is doubtful that the rest of the Chinese navy suffer from the same lack of skills.
Slava Ukraini.
Putin owns Trump, not because of any dodgy maneuvers in a hotel, per the "Steele Report", but from a nearly 40 year long history of Russian mafia types and oligarchs bailing out Trump's failed and bankrupt business ventures - see https://www.americanprogress.org/article/cracking-the-shell/ (and if this link somehow goes away, I'll post the pdf file, available here: https://www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2018/03/TrumpFinancialTies-CrackingShell1.pdf). I'm sure that Putin probably gave this chain around Trump's neck a good jerk, and that's probably why Trump wasn't so jolly. And I'm sure Putin has a lot more kompromat on him, too, enough to hang him out to dry if need be.
I concur with Andre's comments that your comments and analyses are always welcomed and incisive. If you just read mainstream media's treatment of the war in Ukraine and China's activities in the Pacific, you would have an entirely different and shallower understanding (and, frankly in many cases, a false understanding) of what is actually going on. One brief question: did you see that Trump is claiming that Xi told him he will not invade Ukraine while he is President! Quite something, huh? Deserving of the Nobel Peace Prize...!
Is the Mick Ryan who liked my comment the one who writes Futura Doctrina? If so, I love your analyses and commentary too! I get so much out of the incisive and probing work both you and Mr. Freedman (as well as a few others) do. I wish more people read and absorbed them.