Seven Strategic Endeavours

Part 1 of an assessment of the key campaigns that are most likely to determine the course of the war in Ukraine during 2025.

Source: @DefenceU

I do everything I can to end this war with dignity for Ukraine and all of Europe this year. President Zelenskyy, 9 January 2025.

At the Ukraine Defence Contact Group meeting in Ramstein last week, the Ukrainian defence minister Rustem Umerov presented Ukraine’s military strategic priorities for the coming year. The priorities, which incorporate stabilizing the front line; enhancing Ukraine’s defense capabilities; improving air and maritime security; and, enhancing their asymmetric responses to Russia’s numerical advantage, provide a useful insight into how Ukraine is viewing the war in 2025.

Despite the statement of President Zelenskyy on 9 January (above), and the hopes that a new American presidential administration will broker some form of peace agreement in 2025, there is only a small chance of this occurring. While both Ukraine and Russia are wounded, neither are presently postured for – or see themselves in a good position to conduct – negotiations about a ceasefire.

Russia, having seized the strategic momentum in early 2024, retains their maximalist objectives for their conquests of Ukraine and believe the conditions at the moment are favourable for them. They will wish to continue this for as long as possible in 2025 before even considering negotiations. Also, even though they accelerated their seizure of Ukrainian territory in the second half of 2024, what they have captured is essentially ruined due to the contemporary Russian method of battle. Putin will want to capture something that better demonstrates a Russian victory than the thousands of square kilometres of ruins his rampaging soldiers have created.

For Ukraine, 2024 was a grim year which featured setbacks with U.S. military assistance in the first half of the year, a civil-military crisis between the President and the former Commander in Chief in December 2023-January 2024, the long debate over mobilization, a Kursk campaign that while initially successful has seen a large proportion of captured territory lost, the declining efficiency of military reinforcement processes and the continued pressure on frontline and air defence forces. Ukraine will seek to strengthen its position in 2025 before any negotiations occur.

Just getting the Ukrainians and Russians to the table by agreeing what will be negotiated will take time. Israel is still negotiating the release of hostages from 2023, even though it totally dominates on the ground and in the air in Gaza. The situation for Ukraine and Russia is exponentially more complex. And, even if negotiations were to occur in 2025, it is not clear that the foundational issues and objectives of either side will be resolved.

The fighting, witnessed over more than a decade now, is more than likely to continue throughout 2025. In December last year, I reviewed the key influences on the trajectory of the war in 2024. The aim of this two-part assessment is to consider the most crucial strategic endeavours that both Ukraine and Russia are likely to focus on during 2025, and how they might seek to wield and meld them to achieve their versions of a theory of victory. The seven areas, which are distinct elements of the conflict yet also interact with each other, are as follows:

• The Ground War.

• The Strategic Strike and Air Defence War.

• The Mobilization War.

• The Economic War.

• The Robot and Algorithm War.

• The War of Narratives.

• The Learning and Adaptation War.

Seven Strategic Endeavours

As the title of this assessment suggests, there are seven strategic undertakings that will individually have an impact in 2025. But, only in the right combination will they provide one side or the other with a decisive advantage. Producing this ‘right combination’ will require a meshing of political direction and risk taking, military strategy and execution, national resource prioritisation, systemic learning and adaptation, and effective alliance management.

The Ground War. The first and most obvious strategic endeavour for both sides in 2025 will be the ground war. Like all large conflicts, this is a domain in which the fortunes of both sides have waxed and waned. If 2022 was Ukraine’s year, and 2023 was evenly matched, 2024 was Russia’s year on the ground. Despite the brutal approach it takes with employing their soldiers, over time the Russians have developed a contemporary tactical method which has worked well for them, particularly in the past year. The method, which is much more sophistocated than just ‘human waves’ was recently described by Stefan Korshak as follows:

First push forces in range to hit Ukrainian rear areas with drones and when closer with artillery, then attack by attack push forces to either side of the main supply line to the town you want to capture and put that supply route under fire. Target civilian infrastructure like power, water and heating to distract Ukrainian authorities from taking action to slow down Russian attacks, to helping civilians. Where strong Ukrainian defenses are located, pound the area with glider bombs day after day. When it’s time for assault send throwaway troops first to get footholds close to Ukrainian positions, then follow up with skilled infantry to clear positions house-to-house. Accept losses. Assault units that are wiped out gaining ground are a plus, because a wiped-out unit requires no casualty collection or treatment of wounded.