Starlink Surprise
Ukraine surprised Russia with the Starlink shut off, and they have made the most of that surprise to take back territory. But like all surprises, the time to exploit that opportunity is limited.
Regardless of the sophistication and cutting-edge technologies of military and intelligence organisations, the agency of humans and their desire to surprise their enemies is relentless. It is an enduring part of warfare and other forms of human conflict and competition that governments and military institutions must be prepared to counter through adaptation - and good leadership. “Surprise is Inevitable”, 9 October 2023
Throughout the time since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, there have been increasing numbers of articles in the media, and analyses by think tanks, about the concept of battlefield transparency. And while there is a degree of legitimacy to this debate, the reality is that war is never transparent. We can certainly see more of the battlespace than ever before; that is hardly up for debate. But being able to see more is not the same as understanding what we see. Visibility does not equal wisdom.
Therefore, surprise still occurs on the modern battlefield. There have been many examples of this in the past four years. Examples in Ukraine include the defeat of the Russian Army in northern Ukraine in 2022, the October 2022 Kerch Bridge attack by Ukraine, as well as Ukraine’s 2022 Kharkiv offensive and 2024 Kursk operations.
Beyond Ukraine, surprise has also occurred. The Hamas assault into southern Israel is a prime example of tactical and strategic surprise. So too was the rapid fall of Afghanistan and the more recent American raid into Venezuela to seize former President Maduro.
Another surprise has occurred in the past couple of weeks, with implications for Russian operations in Ukraine, is the shutdown of Starlink terminals used by Russia. This is not just a technological issue for Russia. It is also an example of how the shock of this surprise impacts on their wider Ukraine operations.
Starlink, Ukraine and Russia
Starlink terminals, provided by the American company SpaceX, became a crucial part of Ukraine’s military communications infrastructure early after the Russia full-scale invasion. The connectivity offered by Starlink terminals is more resistant to jamming or Russian interception. The mobility and deployability of Starlink terminals particularly in austere battlefield conditions, quickly saw it become the communications bearer of choice for Ukrainian command and control systems such as Delta. Other uses include drone operations, fire support coordination, casualty evacuation operations, and logistics.
But as the Ukrainians discovered early in the war, there were limitations. Midway through a maritime operation using drones controlled through Starlink, SpaceX shut down the connection before the Ukrainians could execute their attack against the Russians. Despite this, Starlink has become near-irreplicable for short and medium range drone strike coordination by the Ukrainian armed forces.
As shown throughout this war however, the Russians have been fast followers of Ukrainian innovation. This was the case with drone operations. It was also the case with the application of Starlink to battlefield communications. Reports emerged in 2023-2024 of Russian forces acquiring Starlink terminals through various means. This included the black market, captured Ukrainian equipment, as well as through third-party suppliers.
A February 2024 report in DefenseOne described how Russia was using Starlink terminals in Ukraine. The activity, reportedly detected by the Ukrainians in late 2023, involved dozens of terminals being used by Russian forces on the frontline. SpaceX responded to this, stating that the company “does not do business of any kind with the Russian Government or its military. Starlink is not active in Russia, meaning service will not work in that country. SpaceX has never sold or marketed Starlink in Russia, nor has it shipped equipment to locations in Russia.” A May 2024 report from DefenseOne described how the U.S. military and Ukraine were working to shut off Russian access to Starlink, noting that the Russians had been deploying replacement terminals as fast as SpaceX turned them off.
Since then, this has been an ongoing problem for the Ukrainians and the Pentagon, in what has essentially been a game of ‘whack-a-mole’. SpaceX claims to have implemented measures to deactivate terminals being used by Russian forces. This included geofencing capabilities to prevent unauthorized use of Starlink terminals by Russian forces in Russian-controlled areas of Ukraine.
The problem of overcoming the Russian use of Starlink gained new urgency in late 2025 when a Russian Shahed drone fired at Ukraine containing Starlink was recovered by the Ukrainians. The addition of Starlink to the drones apparently allowed them to extend their flight range inside Ukraine and to bypass Ukrainian electronic warfare efforts to disable the drones. As a report in Ukrainska Pravda described earlier this month:
Starlink’s operations are banned in Russia, preventing Ukrainian drones from being fully deployed in Russia’s rear. The absence of comparable restrictions over Ukraine has created an asymmetry, enabling Russian forces to conduct precision strikes hundreds of kilometres deep.
The Russian Shutdown
In early February 2026, SpaceX implemented a “whitelist” system that blocked all unauthorized Starlink terminals in Ukraine. This effectively cut off Russian forces’ access to the satellite internet system. Defence Minister Fedorov confirmed that Ukraine’s Defense Ministry has contacted SpaceX with proposals aimed at preventing Russia from using the system.
The shutdown was a big, nasty surprise for the Russians.
Almost immediately, it caused severe disruption to Russian military command and control along many areas of the frontline in Ukraine. It halted Russia ground force assault operations in many areas. Russian military bloggers acknowledged the communications crisis within Russian ground force units, with some describing “chaos” in their units. As one Russian telegram channel described the situation:
The Americans’ shutdown of Starlink terminals used by the Russian Armed Forces has negatively impacted communications in our units. Troops are urgently setting up backup communications methods, albeit ones that are less convenient.
The number of Russian attacks recorded along the frontline by the Ukrainian Armed Forces also decreased in the wake of the Starlink shutdown. The Institute for the Study of War has reported that the tempo of Russian advances in Oleksandrivka and Hulyaipole areas of southern Ukraine has largely stopped since 8 February.
The Starlink shutdown has also apparently had a major impact on Russian ground forces employment of Unmanned Ground Vehicles (UGV). The Russians (and Ukrainians) employ UGVs in functions such as frontline casualty evacuation, as well as tactical sustainment operations for food and ammunition. The loss of Starlink has now forced Russian military logistics troops to return to the use of manned trucks, cars, motorcycles or quad-cycle vehicles. These have proven to be more vulnerable to drone strikes.
