Striking Further

Ukrainian Adaptation During the War Against Russia

Ukrainian Su-24 with Storm Shadow (Image: Ukrainian armed forces)

Today’s drone operations over Moscow are a demonstration of Ukraine’s ever lengthening reach in the conduct of strike operations. It is, at this time, unknown who conducted the attack. The Moscow attack might have been planned directly by the Ukrainians, or funded by them. Or it might have been conducted by disaffected Russians inspired by Ukraine’s resistance against Putin. Regardless, this latest strike shows how the Ukrainians have adapted and extended their operational and strategic strike capabilities since February 2022.

Strategic adaptation, at least in theory, should aim to increase the strategic effectiveness of the institution undertaking such changes.  This concept of strategic effectiveness is an important one when exploring Ukraine’s performance in this war. It has constantly innovated and adapted to improve its performance against the Russian military as well as sustain and enhance its global influence and diplomatic campaigns.

Adaptation is made more difficult by the inherent messiness of military operations, particularly large-scale combat operations that absorb masses of personnel and national resources.  Rarely is the picture of the battlefield, regardless of what level it is observed from, sufficiently clear to make definitive judgements on what success will look like. It is a matter of experience, judgement, and risk-taking by leaders. As Eliot Cohen has written of this environment in The Big Stick, “military power is at best a rough an imprecise instrument, used painfully and with unpredictable results…it is however indispensable.”

As difficult as it may be to measure the effectiveness of military strategy and its subordinate operations, judgements must still be made about what is working and what is not, and institutional emphasis placed on those systems, processes, weapons and organisations that are most likely to generate future advantage and success against an adversary.

Throughout the war, the Ukrainian armed forces have undertaken a range of adaptations to their force posture, structure and processes to enhance their effectiveness.  One in particular stands out: long-range strike.