The Big Five - 17 August edition
My regular update on conflict and confrontation in Ukraine, the Middle East and the Pacific, accompanied by recommended readings on the character of modern war and planning for future conflict.
It has been a big couple of weeks since my last edition of the Big Five.
The major story of the past couple of weeks has been Ukraine’s Kursk offensive and the seizing of over 1100 square kilometres of Russian territory in the past ten days. This has been a stunning change in the direction of the war. At least five Ukrainian brigades, or elements of those brigades, and possibly more have seized the initiative and remained on the move since surprising the Russians in their initial crossing of the border into the Russian Kursk oblast.
President Zelenskyy described the progress in Kursk in a recent video address:
The Commander-in-Chief reported on the operation in Kursk Oblast. There has been new progress. Our “exchange fund” has been further replenished. Additionally, General Syrskyi reported the successful liberation of the city of Sudzha from Russian forces. A Ukrainian military commandant's office is being established there. Several other settlements have also been liberated. In total, more than eighty.
As mentioned by Zelenskyy, Ukraine has appointed a military governor for the parts of the Kursk oblast that are under its control. This makes a lot of sense because it frees up tactical commanders to get on with their advances and fighting the enemy. The military governor can assist with humanitarian aid to Russians who are now in Ukrainian occupied territory, liaise with Russian authorities that remain and also puts doubt in the minds of the Russian government about how long Ukraine might stay in Kursk. It could be a while.
In the past 24 hours, Ukrainian operational strikes have destroyed at least one, and perhaps more, bridges over the Seim River to the west of the current Ukrainian area of operations in Kursk, hit several airbases, and interdicted Russian reinforcement convoys. Russia appears to have few reserves within an easy march of Kursk. To complicate matters, their recent command and control changes have only confused who is in charge of which part of the Russian response. Dara Massicot’s recent commentary on Russian C2 is worth reading.
So, at least for the present, the Ukrainians are operating well inside the Russian tactical and operational decision cycle, or OODA loop. How long they can continue to do so is an open question.
One of the issues that will influence how long the Ukrainians can stretch their tactical and operational advantages in Kursk is the ongoing Battle of the Donbas, and in particular, the continuing Russian advance on the key Ukrainian centre of Pokrovsk. This city is an important logistics hub in the Donbas and forms a key link in a chain of Ukrainian defensive locations in the region.
Thus far, despite their losses in Kursk, the Russians have not been distracted from their grinding advance on Pokrovsk. They have, in some respects, a target fixation with this Ukrainian city. While there may be important tactical, operational and political gains if the Russians seize it, it remains to be seen whether the Russians can sustain their pressure here in the Donbas and resist the growing political imperative to act decisively against Ukraine’s thrust into Russia. The coming weeks will give us an answer to this question, but like all wars, prediction of the ultimate outcome to this dilemma remains impossible.
Kursk and the Donbas are two important and closely linked parts of this war. The consideration of one can only be done in the context of the other. Neither are isolated operations, and the success or otherwise of one will have a major impact on the other.
On a technological front, we are beginning to see an accelerating proliferation of Uncrewed Ground Vehicles in the war in Ukraine. The development and deployment of these systems is a trend that has been evident for a while (I published a report for CSBS on this topic in 2018), and something I have written about here previously. However, the past six months or so has seen stepped up reporting of these UGV in both Ukrainian and Russian service.
The UGVs have a variety of battlefield functions. These include casualty evacuation and resupply, surveillance, mining and defining and close reconnaissance. More images of the different UGVs and their functions are beginning to appear in social media and I have included a couple below. While the use of more of these UGVs will be a partial solution for some of the more dangerous battlefield functions currently undertaken by humans, they are unlikely to provide a total solution to the personnel challenges that both Ukraine and Russia will continue to experience as the war continues.
Elsewhere, the Middle East remains tense in anticipation of an Iranian response to the Israeli operation to kill a senior Hamas leader in Tehran in late July. While there is speculation that Iran is holding back its response pending negotiations about the release of Israeli hostages by Hamas, it is probably using this time to undertake detailed planning of different options for attacking Israel, and coordination of any attacks with its Hezbollah partners. At the same time, as Hezbollah continues its cross border attacks, there has also been speculation about an Israeli pre-emptive strike against Hezbollah or Iran, as well as Israeli plans for a multi-front war if required.
The U.S. has continued to deploy military forces to the region in the hope of deterring an Iranian attack on Israel. The current lay down of U.S. naval forces is described by Ian Ellis in his regular posts and in the infographic below.
I feel like I have been writing like a bandit in the past couple of weeks. First, my new article for Foreign Affairs covering Ukrainian strategy and a theory of victory, was published just as the Ukrainian Kursk offensive commenced. I have been publishing a new article here, and in Twitter threads, every couple of days since the beginning of the offensive. The key topics I examined include the following:
How Ukraine generated surprise against Russia.
The possible next phases of the Ukrainian offensive.
My new book, The War for Ukraine, was also released this week and appears to be selling well in both hardcover and Kindle versions (no word yet on audiobook). That is good, because I will be donating all my royalties to Ukrainian charities and crowdfunding efforts. Finally, I published a short piece with the Lowy Institute this week as part of a series of articles that examine the impact of a second Trump administration. You can read that series here.
So, to this week’s readings….
The recommended articles include an interesting piece on Ukraine’s objectives for its Kursk offensive, as well as articles on the growing alignment of Iran, North Korea, China and Russia in opposing the West, cognitive warfare and the recent Australia-U.S. ministerial discussions. As always, if you only have time to read a single article, the first one is my pick of the week.
Happy reading!
1. Ukraine’s Objectives in Kursk
There has been a lot of speculation, including by me, about Ukraine’s strategic and political objectives of its current Kursk offensive. Clarity was added to this debate during the week by an interview given by Mykhailo Podolyak, a top aide to the Ukrainian President. He describes four key objectives of the ongoing Kursk offensive, one of which is the creation of a buffer zone. You can read the full interview here.
2. Recruiting the Future Russian Military
This is a fascinating and insightful article from Russia expert, Dara Massicot. The article begins with the question “While the Kremlin may have a strategy, will enough of the Russian population want to join the military when the war is over?” The article explores a range of issues related to perceptions of military service in Russia and how the Russian military might seek to rebuild its military in the wake of the war in Ukraine. You can read the full article, published by War on the Rocks, here.
3. The Legion of Doom
The latest edition of Survival has some very good articles. One of my favourites is this piece by Dan Byman and Seth Jones who explore the growing alignment of Iran, China, Russia and North Korea. The article notes that “although the depth of their relations is not as robust as that enjoyed by their Western rivals, their growing cooperation is a significant development in the global balance of power and has major implications for the West.” Unfortunately this is behind a paywall, but well worth reading if you have a subscription to Survival.
4. Thinking About Cognitive Warfare
The cognitive domain, as a term, has gained greater legitimacy in military and national security circles in recent years. And while influencing how an adversary thinks is as old as war, and hardly a new idea, some of the technologies available to generate and spread misinformation have evolved its conduct. To that end, this is a useful article that explores cognitive warfare, the status of our potential adversaries and what we might to to combat their efforts. I think it under emphasises the strengths of Western societies, corporations and military institutions but you can draw your own conclusions. You can read the article, published by Joint Forces Quarterly, here.
5. The Australia-U.S. Ministerial Consultations 2024
Each year, the Australian and U.S. defence and foreign affairs ministers meet to discuss a range of security issues that are of relevance to both nations as well as the wider Pacific region. This year’s meeting, held in the U.S., covered an array of issues include force posture, military infrastructure and U.S. forces in Australia, collaboration of research and development and countering misinformation. You can read the full joint statement about the areas of discussion, and key agreements, here.