The Big Five - 2 November edition

My regular update on conflict and confrontation in Ukraine, the Middle East and the Pacific, accompanied by recommended readings on the character of modern war and planning for future conflict.

Australian and South Korean troops on joint training exercises Tiger Dingo. Source: @3BrigadeTSV

It has been a hectic week.

Events in Ukraine continue to unfold in a way that portends an increasingly bleak future for Ukraine unless American and NATO strategy changes and embraces the need to defeat Russia in Ukraine. And of course, such a shift in strategy needs to be accompanied with a step up in the pace and quantity of military assistance. Unfortunately there appears to be little prospect of this at least until the U.S. presidential election is decided.

I am a little time constrained this week due to a pending overseas trip (and a 34 hour journey to get to my destination) so I thought I would do something a little different. I still have my top 5 recommendations for reading, but also highlight some interesting info-graphics from the past week that caught my eye.

Over the past decade or so we have seen some really innovative approaches to portraying information in these infographics. In some respects, a picture can be worth a thousand words when analysing modern war.

One of the most famous, if not the most famous, info graphics is the map by Charles Minard that shows the losses suffered by Napoleon’s army in the Russian campaign of 1812. A picture of this is below.

Info graphics can make a lot of data make sense to the lay person, and also help illustrate key points in the detailed analysis of topics from warfare to economics. I am a big fan of this form of communication, and include three recent examples below.

Territorial Gains by Russia

The first info graph for this week, from the New York Times, shows Russia’s gains (and losses) in eastern Ukraine since the beginning of their February 2022 large-scale invasion. This demonstrates that the Russian eastern offensive which kicked off at the beginning of this year has actually accelerated in its seizure of Ukrainian territory as it progressed. While there will be a culminating point of this offensive at some point, this will occur later than many of us thought. It will continue through the U.S. presidential election period because this offensive is as much about the strategic story of the war, and the narrative of ‘inevitable Russian victory’ as it is about seizing ground and degrading Ukrainian ground forces and national will. And it shows that Kursk has not achieved the objective of drawing large numbers of Russian forces from the Donbas.

Trade and the Taiwan Strait

This pair of images is taken from a new report from the CSIS China Power project. It shows one of the economic dimensions of any conflict over Taiwan, which is the amount of international trade that transits through the Taiwan Strait. While shipping companies can adapt their routes and find other solutions in the event of war, the disruption to 2.45 trillion dollars in trade, in the event of any Chinese military aggression against Taiwan, would have a profound impact on many nations around the world.

Nuclear Weapons Inventories

Finally, from the 2024 SIPRI Yearbook summary, a graphic that shows the current holdings of nuclear weapons by nuclear armed countries. I expect we will see this change over the next couple of years as China continues its build up of nuclear weapons to around 1000 by 2030. For a good exploration of the nuclear weapons programs of China and Russia, see this August 2024 report called Nuclear Challenges, from the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency.

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So, to the recommended readings…

This week, a mix of articles on Ukraine including a good piece from Mykola Bielieskov, and an assessment of the most recent Israeli strikes against Iran. I have also included a useful analysis of the PLA’s recent Joint Sword 2024B conducted around Taiwan in October.

As always, if you only have time to read one article, the first one is my pick of the week.

Happy reading!

1. The Conditions for Russian Victory

In this piece, Ukrainian strategic analyst Mykola Bielieskov argues that “the Russian invasion of Ukraine is now at a critical juncture. Unless steps are taken in the coming few months to reverse today’s negative dynamics, Russia’s advantages will continue to grow until the military situation reaches the point of no return.” Without a change in western strategy, which must embrace defeating Russia, the trajectory of the war for Ukraine is grim indeed. You can read the article here.

2. Assessing Joint Sword 2024B

The China Power project at CSIS has been a wealth of analysis on China’s military, political, and diplomatic efforts to assert itself in the western Pacific and beyond. In this analysis, Bonny Lin and Brian Hart provide an assessment of the recently conducted Joint Sword 2024B, which was executed by the PLA around Taiwan over a single 24 hour period in October. With good insights into this activity as well as where it fits in the larger development of the PLA’s joint operations and coercion against Taiwan, this report can be read here.

3. The Price of Failure

This article from the U.S. Secretary of Defence, Lloyd Austin, published in Foreign Affairs is a recap of U.S. support for Ukraine over the past three years, and includes the following passage: “Ukraine does not belong to Putin. Ukraine belongs to the Ukrainian people. And Moscow will never prevail in Ukraine.” The terrible irony is that despite these words, the U.S. strategy for Ukraine is actually helping Putin. Unless a U.S. administration decides that Russia has to lose (it hasn’t), overcomes its fear of Russia losing, and resources a ‘Russia must lose in Ukraine’ policy accordingly, the future of Ukraine is increasingly perilous. The full article can be read here.

4. Iran Now More Vulnerable

This piece in The Economist offers a good assessment of the recent Israeli strikes against Iran in late October. Using around 100 crewed and uncrewed aircraft, Israel struck multiple air defence and missile production facilities in different regions of Iran. Not only was this a proportionate response to Iran’s drone and missile attacks on Israel, it appears to have opened a very big hole in Iran’s air defence network, leaving it vulnerable to further Israeli strikes, including on Iranian nuclear infrastructure. The article is available here.

5. The Cove

The Cove is an Australian Army online portal designed to allow any member of the army to contribute lessons, ideas and analysis on contemporary and future war, with a focus on land warfare. With sections on war, technology, people and leadership, this has become an excellent reference over the eight years of its existence. Full disclosure: I led the team that developed the idea for, and then rolled out, The Cove in 2016-17. The name “The Cove” is drawn from the place where the Australian Army was born in battle - Anzac Cove. You can access The Cove here.