The Big Five - 24 November edition

My regular update on conflict and confrontation in Ukraine, the Middle East and the Pacific, accompanied by recommended readings on modern war and future conflict.

Image: President Zelenskyy Twitter / X

Today, there were a lot of nerves and questions about some kind of particular danger. Although, throughout this time, we have already experienced so many cruel and vile attacks from Russia… Air raid alerts should always be heeded. We have that kind of a neighbor – insane. Today, on the 1,001st day of a full-scale war, Russia is just as insane as it was on the 1,000th day and on February 24. President Zelenskyy.

As is every week these days, it was a fascinating week in war and international affairs. In this week’s update, I will focus primarily on the war in Ukraine but also provide an update on issues in the Pacific region as well. And as always, I will conclude with an update that includes my Big Five favourite articles of the week.

Is it just me, or does there appear to be more happening every week?

Ukraine and Russia

This week we passed the 1000 day mark since Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Of course, 2024 also marks a decade since the beginning of Russia’s war against Ukraine. As I wrote in my article on this subject during the week:

At the thousand-day mark of this phase of the war begun by Russia in 2014, Ukraine has suffered tens of thousands of military and civilian casualties, lost and regained large swathes of territory, and seen civilian infrastructure and priceless cultural artifacts destroyed. But it has also developed world-leading drone tactics and an entirely new strategic strike complex, employed extraordinarily effective strategic influence activities, re-invigorated its defence industry, and has become the first country to invade Russia in nearly a century.

And at this point of the war, the Ukrainian government has some critical short-term challenges ahead. As I wrote here, it needs to conduct a ruthless re-assessment of its military strategy, resolve personnel challenges faced by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and change its partners’ perceptions about its prospects.

Ukraine is also facing another tough winter ahead, given the ongoing Russian offensives in eastern Ukraine and Kursk, and an incoming U.S. administration that is - in some individuals at least - skeptical about futher assistance to Ukraine.

Russia’s destruction of many Ukrainian power stations (and parts of the distribution grid) will also cause a huge amount of harm and suffering to the Ukrainian people this winter. A recent International Energy Agency (IEA) report, Ukraine’s Energy Security and the Coming Winter, contains a detailed review of the current status of Ukraine’s power network and the challenges of the coming northern winter. It finds that

This year has seen a step change in the intensity of attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector, creating risks that extend far beyond energy as Ukraine approaches the winter months.Ukraine’s energy system made it through two successive winters since Russia’s invasion, but the third promises to be the sternest of tests.

You can read the full IEA report here.

On the frontline, Russian forces continued their attacks and have in many areas managed to continue gaining ground. Despite their large average daily casualties, the Russians continue and their forces are pressing Ukrainian defenders hard on the followng axes of advance:

• Kharkiv.

• Kupyansk.

• Lyman.

• Kramatorsk.

• Toretsk.

• Pokrovsk.

• Kurakhove

• Vremivka.

• Orikhiv.

The Russians made gains on their Kupyansk, Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, Vremivka and Orikhiv axes.

Russian advances at Kupysansk, Chasiv Yar and the vicinity of Pokrovsk. Source: @War_Mapper

The Russians, and their North Korean allies, continue to push on Ukrainian positions in Kursk. They have apparently now amassed a force of around 60,000 troops there. As CDS notes in their report today:

The Russian Armed Forces have concentrated up to 60,000 personnel in Kursk Oblast. The enemy intends to push the "Siversk" OTG across the international border into Sumy Oblast and conduct further offensive actions deeper into Ukraine to establish a "buffer zone" in Sumy Oblast. 

Source: Institute for the Study of War

This week, Russia also launched a new kind of missile at the Ukrainian industrial complex that designs and manufactures missiles in Dnipro. In his statement about the attack issued on 21 November, President Putin noted that:

Russian Armed Forces delivered a combined strike on a facility within Ukraine’s defence industrial complex. In field conditions, we also carried out tests of one of Russia’s latest medium-range missile systems – in this case, carrying a non-nuclear hypersonic ballistic missile that our engineers named Oreshnik. The tests were successful.

The damage caused by the Russian missile attack on Dnipro was minimal (they appear to have been dummy warheads). However, this was not a military strike but a political one. The Russian president was directly addressing the incoming U.S. administration (as well as European leaders) about how determined Putin is to impose his will on Ukraine – and countries beyond Ukraine.

But, as I noted in my article on this topic, in this political signalling, perhaps he is also more desperate to conclude this war on terms favourable to Russia than we appreciate.

Source: https://texty.org.ua

Speaking at a conference this week, Ukrainian intelligence chief, General Budanov, revealed that Russia's plan for Ukraine before this February 2022 invasion included genocide of the population. Russia’s preparation included kill lists, mobile crematoria and the creation of mass graves. He noted that:

The lists include teachers of Ukrainian language, literature and history, veterans of the Army, journalists, scientists, writers, priests of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine and other denominations that supported Ukraine, public and political figures, heads of state and self-government bodies…The atrocities of units of the Russian armed forces in Borodyanka, Bucha, Hostomel, Izyum, Mariupol and many other settlements of Ukraine showed that these identical and synchronized actions were based on clear doctrinal provisions of the Russian genocidal policy of the authorities and military leadership.

Finally, the office of the Ukrainian Prosecutor General opened yet another investigation into Russian forces executing Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) in Donetsk Oblast. The Ukrainian Prosecutor General’s Office reported that it was investigating a report that Russian ground forces executed five Ukrainian soldiers near Vuhledar on October 2.

This is just the latest in a long string of POW executions by Russian forces. Given the frequency of this kind of atrocity conducted by the Russians, it has clearly become a systemic behaviour and one that is either incentivised or one that Russian commanders willingly turn a blind eye to. Either way, this kind of widespread behaviour is yet another item to be added to Gerasimov’s growing charge sheet for the ICC - along with all the commanders beneath him.

The Pacific

Reuters has reported that Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te will transit through Hawaii and possibly Guam during an overseas trip in late November or early December. The Taiwanese government has not confirmed this report. As usual, the Chinese have responded almost instantly with their Ministry of Foreign Affairs stating that such transits violate the One China principle and will not stop the “inevitable trend” of China’s reunification.

This week, Presidents Biden and Xi agreed that artificial intelligence (AI) would not be integrated into their nuclear weapons control systems. It is unknown at this point whether this might lead to other discussions between the U.S. and China on this subject. But it is a first step between the two nations in discussing nuclear weapons and artificial intelligence.

Also this week, the Commander in-Chief of the Indo-Pacific Command, Admiral Paparo spoke at a conference in Washington DC about Chinese preparations for a potential invasion of Taiwan. His comments, published by @IanEllisJones, are worth quoting here:

Over the summer, I saw the most rehearsal and the most joint exercises from the PRC—with the widest geography, the joint-est operations for air, missile, maritime power—that I’d seen over an entire career.

• 152 vessels at sea, including 3/4 of the amphibious force

• 43 brigades “breaching obstacles, onward movement to military ops in urban terrain

• 2 major demonstrations of military power in May and October (exercise Joint Sword A and B)

• Longest-ranging geographic air and maritime cooperative exercise between China and Russia

This was the largest rehearsal as we’ve seen on an upward trajectory of PLA modernization and joint rehearsal, as the PLA continues to enhance and improve its military capabilities.

Which is why we see the Taiwanese conducting a range of different military exercises, including those below where their army engineers train to construct obstacles.

This week, the Australian government announced that Japan would commence regular rotations of its military personnel to Darwin in Australia’s Northern Territory from 2025. These would occur at approximately the same time as the now annual deployment of the Marine Rotational Force - Darwin (MRF-D), which includes ground, air, logistics and C2 elements. The announcement came on the back of a trilateral meeting in Darwin of the U.S., Japanese and Australian defence ministers. The full read out of this meeting is available here.

The Japanese, Australian and U.S. Defence Ministers in Darwin

The U.S. Secretary of Defense conducted a visit to multiple parts of the Indo-Pacific this week, in probably his last visit as a Biden administration official. He met counterparts in different nations and also attended the 11th annual ASEAN Defense Ministers' Meeting-Plus in Laos. A full run down of his visit to the region is available here.

Finally, Australia this week announced the selection of the vessel to meets its requirement for a heavy landing ship for the Australian Army. The winning contender is Damen’s LST100 design, with 8 to be procured. This is in addition to the 18 medium littoral maneuver vessels also to be built Down Under for the Australian Army earlier this year.

Australia's new medium and heavy landing craft

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Since my last Big Five post here, I have published a few articles. On 19 November I published a piece here that explored the road ahead at the 1000 day mark since the large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The same day, Engelsberg Ideas published a long read I wrote about the 40th anniversary of the publication of The Hunt for Red October, and the enduring popularity (and importance) of military fiction. This week I also published an op-ed with the Sydney Morning Herald, which examined Putin’s most recent nuclear threats.

I also published a short article for the Council on Geostrategy looking at what might be ahead for the war in Ukraine, which you can read here. Finally, I published an article here that explored the Russian Oreshnik missile attack on Dnipro and its implications. You can read that piece here.

This week, my book The War for Ukraine: Strategy and Adaptation Under Fire was released on audiobook. I know there are many of you who like this format, and I hope you enjoy the book this way. You can check it out here.

Finally, for those who weren’t aware, I have been posting on BlueSky more frequently (you can follow me here). I will retain a presence on both Twitter and BlueSky for the time being and post pretty much the same stuff on each. Today, I posted a Starter Pack of national security, Ukraine and military experts (I really like this capability on BlueSky). I will continue to build and evolve this list, but it is a good start for those of you who are transitioning to BlueSky and want to keep up with Ukraine issues, and other topics related to modern warfare.

*****

So, to the recommended readings…

This week, a mix of articles including a good examination of China’s approach to cognitive warfare, an update on American planning for large-scale and protracted war, and European defence planning and resourcing. I have also included a great piece that compares the maritime capabilities of the AUKUS nations with those of China, and finally, an interesting piece on how Chinese hackers are preparing for cyber conflict with America.

As always, if you only have time to read one article, the first one is my pick of the week.

Happy reading!

1. China’s Algorithmic Cognitive Warfare

This week, the Special Competitive Studies Project released a new report that explores China’s evolving embrace of cognitive warfare and its incorporation of AI to vastly expand its capacity for these types of operations. As the report notes, Algorithmic Cognitive Warfare “encompasses both the artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms used to analyze and track individuals, as well as the powerful recommendation algorithms embedded within social media platforms that drive content consumption. At the heart of algorithmic cognitive warfare’s success lies the granular, comprehensive data about target populations needed to conduct individualized warfare.” You can read the full report here.

2. Europe is Out of Time

This article explores the topic of European defence, and proposes that Europe must act urgently to ensure that it is able to defend itself. As the author notes, “with Donald Trump’s return to the White House, there is a genuine risk that U.S. engagement in Europe could drop precipitously. If the United States halts its military aid to Kyiv, the consequences will be profound, both for the war in Ukraine and for the rest of Europe’s defenses against external threats, a revanchist Russia chief among them.” You can read this article here.

3. American Planning for Protracted War

This is an interesting piece that explores the current preparations, or more correctly the lack of preparations, for any prolonged conflict between the United States and China. As the authors notes, “Washington may be due for a fundamental strategy rethink as it ramps up its competition with Beijing. A genuine victory in the most likely conflict scenario — a prolonged, grinding fight — looks quite different from current theories of victory.” The full piece, published by the always excellent War on the Rocks, is available to read here.

4. The AUKUS v PLA Navies

This article conducts an assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the maritime forces currently deployed by AUKUS nations and compares them to the maritime forces of China. The article, published in the Australian Naval Review, examines the topic through four key aspects: force structure (including personnel); command, control and organisation; industrial support base; and, judgements on the overall operational efficiency. You can read the article, as well as some other excellent thinking about naval issues, here.

5. Chinese Hackers Prepare for Cyber War

This piece looks at recent testimony from senior U.S. officials about how China-linked hackers have compromised information networks and undertaken preparations to execute out disruptive attacks against America in the event of a war. These activities include gaining access to important networks that will allow them to mess with heating, ventilation and air-conditioning systems in server rooms, as well as disrupting critical energy, power and water supply controls systems. You can read this Reuters report here.