The Big Five - 26 July edition
My weekly update accompanied by recommended readings on the character of modern war, planning for future conflict, and adapting to win.
I have found that the introductions to my weekly recommended readings have become longer and are now a weekly update on key strategic events. Let me know in the comments if you like this format, or would prefer a strict focus on the readings only.
It has been another hectic week in international military and security affairs.
The war in Ukraine continues with Russian ground forces continuing their multi-axis offensive in the eastern and northeastern parts of Ukraine. They made the most progress on the Pokrovsk axis, where it is reported that Russian ground forces were able to advance around 6 kilometres.
The Russians continue their experimentation with turtle tanks and motorcycle troops in their assaults, including this Russian attack that occurred during week, described by Rob Lee:
Ukraine's 79th Air Assault Brigade says it countered a large-scale Russian armored assault this morning that involved 11 tanks (including turtle tanks), 45 armored vehicles, a BMPT tank support combat vehicle, 12 motorcycles, and 200 assault troops. The assault began from multiple directions at once at dawn, and it was countered with UAVs, artillery, FPVs, and mines.
The Russians also continued their aerial offensive against Ukrainian civil infrastructure and citizens in several cities in Ukraine. Also this week, the Ukrainian president announced that another battery of Patriot air defence missiles arrived in Ukraine.
Notwithstanding the Russian operations on the ground and in the air, their overall casualty rates continue to increase.
A British military report earlier this week described how Russian average daily casualties are now at the highest of the war so far. As the graph below shows, the Russians are now suffering over 1200 casualties per day. Not only is this a poor return on investment for the minor gains made, no country can do this forever.
What we are seeing is probably a desperate Russian attempt to gain as much territory as possible for the U.S. presidential elections in November. Time will tell.
In related news, apparently residents of Moscow who join the Russian Army receive a large bonus, which significantly increases their pay. Which, of course, is what all successful armies do when they are having absolutely no problem at all recruiting soldiers for a war.
It appears that Ukraine has weathered what is probably the low point of the war in the first half of 2024. With drastic shortages in firepower and manpower on the frontline, air defences across the nation, and a decline in western attention, the Ukrainians faced a very difficult start to the year. They have managed to minimise Russian advances during that time, and as I have written elsewhere, the Russian have squandered a strategic opportunity this year which may not come around again.
The Russian strategy now appears contingent upon the election of a Republican president in November this year. Putin’s hope will be that the U.S. forces Ukraine into some negotiation, which is unlikely to be favourable to Ukraine. That is possible but is not a certainty.
Finally, before moving off the subject of Ukraine, the Ukrainian foreign minister conducted a visit to China this week. Given the Chinese support for Russia, its refusal to attend the recent Peace Summit in Switzerland, and President Zelenskyy’s criticism of the Chinese approach to peace talks, this was a little unexpected. I explored the likely Chinese and Ukrainian objectives for the visit here. A report in the Washington Post about the visit also described how “Kuleba was expected to lobby Chinese officials to attend another peace conference planned for sometime before the American presidential election in early November.”
In the Pacific theatre, it has been a busy week for naval forces. China concluded its Shandong Carrier Battle Group deployment to the east of Taiwan and then Russia and China conducted joint maritime drills in the South China Sea, as well in areas to the east and north of Taiwan. Ian Ellis Jones has covered these exercises and I recommend following him on Twitter / X for updates. His graphic about this China-Russia collaboration is below.
Also this week we saw the conclusion of the annual RIMPAC exercise conducted in the vicinity of Hawaii. With 29 nations participating, the exercise covered a range of maritime warfare elements and then concluded with what navy’s call a SINKEX. This is where naval vessels get to live fire their weapons at old ships and sink them. Included in the SINKEX this year was the Royal Australian Navy’s firing of a Naval Strike Missile as well as other missile firings to sink two large, retired U.S. navy vessels.
The past week has also seen the British land warfare conference and Farnborough international airshow. The land warfare conference made headlines because the British Army chief, General Sir Roland Walker, described how Britain must be ready to fight a war in three years. And, at the Farnborough International Airshow, a 1:1 scale model of the developing Tempest fighter was unveiled (see image below).
Of course, it would be hard not to mention the decision by President Biden to step down from his campaign to be re-elected in November this year. While the impact of this on American support for Ukraine remains to be seen, it is likely that a President Harris (if she is the Democrat nominee) would retain a tough approach towards Russia and China.
As Vice President Harris noted in her remarks at the June Peace Summit in Switzerland, “if the world fails to respond when an aggressor invades its neighbor, other aggressors will undoubtably become emboldened. It leads to the potential of a world of conquest and chaos, not order and stability, which threatens all nations…President Joe Biden and I will continue to support Ukraine and continue to impose costs on Russia.” This is somewhat different to the rhetoric from Trump and Vance.
This week, I also published two other articles here. The first explored the application of artificial intelligence in the adaptive processes of military institutions. The second explored the rationale and objectives of the visit by the Ukrainian foreign minister to Beijing.
The recommended articles include an interesting discussion with the Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief, the topic of deterrence in the American context, recruiting and a potential war between Israel and Hezbollah. As always, if you only have time to read a single article, the first one is my pick.
Happy reading!
1. An Interview with General Syrskyi
This week, The Guardian published an interview with the Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief, General Syrksyi. It was a wide-ranging interview, covering topics that included the arrival of F-16 fighter jets, loss ratios between Ukraine and Russia, the progress of the ongoing Russian ground offensive and evolving battlefield tactics. It is well worth a read. You can find the full piece here.
2. Thinking About Deterrence
This is an interesting review of deterrence and the U.S. concept of integrated deterrence which appeared in the most recent U.S. National Defence Strategy. As the article notes, “political choices tend to become “baked into” a nation’s capabilities for considerable periods of time. Geopolitical competitors, in turn, are motivated to offset strategic investments by posing new challenges in different areas. Put simply, any strategy of integrated deterrence is destined for disintegration.” This article, published by War on the Rocks, can be read here.
3. Europe Awakening
The next article examines the strategic changes occurring in Europe as a result of Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine, and many battlefield and strategic lessons that have emerged. Based on an address by General Cavoli at the recent Aspen Security Conference, the article explores how European governments have evolved their understanding of contemporary strategic threats and begun the process of increasing defence budgets and the production of their defence industries. Read the full article here.
4. Recruiting Soldiers in the U.S. and U.K.
I found this recent article from The Wavell Room interesting because it reviews the recruiting systems for the U.S. Army and offers advice on how the British Army might learn from the strengths and weaknesses of the American system. While there are always dangers in trying to import the solutions from other nations, we would be crazy not to be learning from each other when many nations are suffering similar problems with recruiting military personnel. You can read the article here.
5. Israel’s Next War?
The final article is an exploration of a potential conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. The author writes that “Israel now appears closer than ever to a second, even larger war with Hezbollah on its northern border. In June, the Israel Defense Forces announced that plans for a full-scale attack in southern Lebanon had been approved.” The article explores the implications of such a war, and proposes that “if the situation explodes, however, the border region—and both countries—will experience something they have never encountered before: a full-blown war that will include unprecedented damage to civilian populations and national infrastructure.” The full Foreign Affairs article is available here.
Please continue the comprehensive reporting and analysis. It is a welcome dose of reality.
Your comments are welcome.