The Big Five - 27 April edition
A weekly guide to new readings on modern war and adapting to win
It has been a big week for news in national security affairs. The most important announcement was the passing of the series of assistance bills for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. This comes at a critical time in the war in Ukraine, and the new military assistance from the U.S. will be a lifesaving injection of capability for the Ukrainian military.
There was also a large package of assistance to Ukraine from the UK as well as the announcement about the provision of longer range ATACMS to the Ukrainian military which I explored in this post.
On the other side of the world, in the past week the PLA dis-established the Strategic Support Force and established a new Information Support Force. Taiwan announced its intention to establish a Littoral Combatant Command. I examined there two issues here.
As always, my number one recommended read is the first article below. Have a great weekend of reading!
1. Will Robots Make War More Terrifying?
As the author notes in the terrific article at War on the Rocks, “the consequences of unleashing such fearless weapons on the battlefield could be far more devastating than we can imagine. Indeed, humanity may come to miss the restraining and mitigating effects of fear, fatigue, and stress on the horrors of combat.” This is a terrific article that explores the impact of the widespread use of robotics and autonomous systems in war. You can read this very thoughtful article here.
2. Russia's Defense Industry after Two Years of War
This new report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies explores Russia’s evolving defense industrial capabilities and limitations as we enter the third year of the Russia-Ukraine war. The report examines how the chaning Russian defence industrial base have affected, and may continue to impact, battlefield outcomes in Ukraine. Read the full report here.
3. Measuring the Military Balance in Asia
Defence spending in the Indo-Pacific continues to rise, including in China which now comprises 43% of all spending on defence in Asia. However, as the author proposes, spending is just metric in assessing the actual capabilities and military balance of Asian military organisations. You can read the full piece here.
4. The (Fictional) Destruction of a British Brigade
A nice bit of Useful Fiction that explores a fictional account of a future battle featuring a British army brigade. This approach is very useful in thinking through future battlefield challenges and anticipating failure. It is part of a growing body of Fictional Intelligence (FICINT) which is helping military planners think through future operations, force structures and the integration of new technologies into military organisations. You can read the piece, published by The Wavell Room, here.
5. Land Force Strike Complexes
Finally, another good analysis from the team at RUSI. This time, they have published an exploration of how modern land forces might build a sophistocated strike complex that employs uncrewed aerial systems. First rate analysis as always, you can read this (long) report here.
Antonio Salinas's thought provoking article 'Will Fearless andTireless Robots Lead to More Terrifying Wars' makes great reading. It provides some important context for Mick Ryan's portrayal of the battlefield application of autonomous ground systems such as the PLA's 'beetles' in 'White Sun War'. The battlefield use of such lethal robotic systems is incredibly frightening and likely to be very difficult for soldiers to confront and defeat.
The article shines a light on the evolution of close combat operations of the 1940s and 1950s as described by SLA Marshall in 'Men Against Fire: The Problem of Battle Command'. Close combat is becoming much more lethal in the 21st Century. The selection and development of leaders at all levels will become increasingly important if we are to survive and win.