The Big Five - 30 March edition

A weekly guide to new readings on modern war and adapting to win

Another week, another set of readings about war and the future of conflict.

This week’s readings have a distinct technological flavour with three separate recommended readings about advanced technologies in the computer and biological sciences that have defence and national security implications.

But, there is also a focus on Russia. Two separate issues explore Russian decision-making. The first, and my recommended priority read for this week, looks at why Putin issues threats about using nuclear weapons so often. The other piece examines recent announcements about Russian military force structure.

Enjoy this week’s Big Five readings!

1. Putin’s nuclear warnings: heightened risk or revolving door?

This article, published at the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, explores the nuclear sabre rattling of the Russian president since the large scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The authors focus on the exploration of multiple reasons why Putin issues such threats, and they describe how “Putin himself has, on numerous occasions since the beginning of Russia’s war against Ukraine in February 2022, reminded NATO and the world that the nuclear option remains available should Russia choose to use it.” You can read the full piece here.

2. China’s Non-Therapeutic Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) Research

This is a fascinating publication which details how Chinese research and development efforts are exploring how the marriage of biological intelligence and silicon-based computing can lead to better human performance in military and civil sectors. The authors of the report, from the Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) at Georgetown University, note how “the BCI research is part of a broader plan, described in Chinese ministry documents, to “merge” human and machine intelligence in both metaphorical and literal senses.” One of the most interesting findings in the report is that “while working toward near-term practical implementations, top Chinese BCI scientists are in broad agreement with the longer-term goal of transforming cognition itself.” Imagine what the PLA, as well as the Chinese internal security services, might do with that! You can read the full report here.

3. The Future of the Russian Military

This week, the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) published a new report that examined the potential future developments in the Russian military institution. In More of the Same?, Katherine Kjellström Elgin proposes that the Russian military will attempt to rebuild and reform in the aftermath of the war, but that the military institution that emerges from these efforts is likely to operate in ways similar to the force that invaded Ukraine in February 2022. You can read the full report here.

4. Are We Trapped in the Matrix?

In this fascinating artilce in the Wall Street Journal, the author exploresd how the seminal 1999 science fiction film, The Matrix, predicted a world that is similar to the one we now live in, where human beings are cut off from one another by technology. The author explores how the film adapts an allegories from Plato’s Republic, where Athenian philosopher Socrates describes prisoners who have spent their entire lives manacled in a cave. The allegory of the cave is a metaphor for the capacity of human beings to break free from falsehood. As the author notes, “today we are once again asking what it will take to find our way out of the lonely darkness, into the brilliance of other human souls in the real world.” You can read the article here.

5. What’s next for generative video?

This final article explores the state of the art in generative video and projected advances in this technology over the short term. Published by the MIT Technology Review, the author proposes that “fakes will soon be everywhere, from disinformation campaigns, to ad spots, to Hollywood blockbusters.” This is not a long read, but it is a very interesting one. Lots of potential for our adversaries - be they nation states or other malign non-state actors - to employ this technology to harm individuals as well as confidence on democratic systems. You can read the full piece here.