The Big Five - Kyiv Edition

My regular update on global conflict and confrontation. This week: America cuts aid and intelligence to Ukraine; Putin holds firm on concessions; America’s friends and allies plan for a new world.

All the great things are simple, and many can be expressed in a single word: freedom, justice, honor, duty, mercy, hope. Winston Churchill.

Welcome to this week’s edition of The Big Five. This week, I explore the continuing fallout from the Oval Office ambush on 28 February as well as updates on the war in Ukraine. As always, I conclude with my top five war and national security reads from the week.

Of note, this week’s edition of The Big Five comes to you from Kyiv. I am conducting another of my field research trips in Ukraine, and will be bringing you several different articles and updates about my time here.

Ukraine

It is really, really good to be back in Ukraine. I love being here, and it always fills me with a sense of purpose to be able to speak to people who everyday are doing things, and making a decisions, that have a profound impact on the future of their nation, and the security of Europe. The U.S. Marine Corps memorial in Washington DC has an inscription that says that “uncommon valor was a common virtue.” Ukraine and its people are the modern manifestation of this phrase.

America Cuts Military Aid and Intelligence. There has been a huge amount written on this topic during the week. In short, the Trump administration is pausing military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine. Russia, delighted that its investment in disinformation in America has paid off so handsomely, immediately stepped up its attacks on the ground and in the air to test just how far the intelligence ‘cut off’ extends.

This is clearly part of the American strong arm approach to getting concessions from Ukraine without having to get any concessions from Russia. And, it is indicative of the enmity felt by Trump and Vance towards Zelenskyy but not Putin. As Trump stated in the past 24 hours, “right now Russia is bombing the hell out of Ukraine, and Ukraine, right now I am finding it difficult to deal with Ukraine. They don’t have the cards.”

I wish he would stop with the card game metaphors. War is nothing like cards.

To really rub it in, on Thursday, President Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine, General Keith Kellogg, said of the Ukrainians that they had “brought it on themselves.” At best, this was condescending. But given Kellogg appears to have almost no influence over what is happening with peace negotiations, his remarks mean little.

A variety of European nations and commercial entities are already scrambling to fill the gap left by America pulling the plug on its intelligence sharing with Ukraine. Whether they can fully fill the hole left by a cutting off of American intelligence remains to be seen. It is another sign that we have been perhaps a little too over-reliant on U.S. intelligence flows in the past few decades, and a part of the anticipated increased defence spending in European (and Pacific) nations must be plowed into expanded intelligence collection, analysis and dissemination.

Putin Holds Firm. Putin has continued to hold firm on not providing any concessions to Trump. As he noted in a staged conversation with families of Russian soldiers this week, when the mother of a dead Russian soldier stated that “Russia should go to the end and not make any concessions," Putin responded that "we aren't planning to do that."

This is probably because, first, Trump has already conceded many aspects of Putin wants (no NATO for Ukraine for example), and second, because he probably doesn’t think the real negotiations have started yet. From Putin’s perspective, both America and Russia are still ‘clearing their throats’ in the lead up to negotiations.

Therefore, Putin continues with his war while continuing to put pressure on Ukraine. This was most obvious in the large missiles strike this week, but also the very strong push to cut off the base of the Ukrainian salient in Kursk. This puts the Ukrainians in a very precarious military position but also deprives them of one of their negotiating points.

Europe Begins to Step Up. The London summit was the first in a cascading series of meetings and summits in the past which which has seen pronouncements about supporting Ukraine, increasing military spending, and a range of other topics. Of all the discussions and interesting comments this week, the most interesting was from the Polish prime minister.

Poland will ensure that every man undergoes military training as part of the increase in size of the Polish Army to 500,000, as prime minister Tusk told the Polish parliament on Friday. Even more interesting, he described how Poland would seek nuclear weapons as a strategic deterrent against Russian aggression.

My sense is that this has become a more normalized discussion in Europe, and that other nations (including those in the Pacific) are being forced to reconsider the development of indigenous nuclear weapon programs because they are not sure the American nuclear umbrella provides a reliable deterrent against Chinese or Russian aggression. The key question is how fast those wanting nuclear weapons might be able to develop them.

Another interesting question is whether America will stand in the way of allies who decide they want their own nuclear arsenal. The Trump administration has busted so many norms in the past six weeks that the Non-Proliferation Treaty (which the U.S. signed in 1968) might be just another agreement that can be dispensed with because it is now inconvenient for them.

Strategic Strikes. Ukraine continued strategic strikes this week against Russian oil and military infrastructure. Ukrainian drones attack the Kinef oil refinery located in Kirishi, Leningrad Oblast. Ukrainian forces also executed strikes on the Saky airfield and launch positions of strike UAVs at Cape Chauda in the occupied Crimea.

Russia undertook several large-scale strikes this week.

March 4: Russia launched three Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles, one S-300 surface-to-air guided missile, and 181 Shahed UAVs, as well as decoy drones. Kyiv, Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv Oblasts were affected by the attack.

March 5: Russia launched two Iskander-M/KN-23 ballistic missiles and 112 Shahed UAVs, and decoy drones. A Russian missile hit a hotel in Kryvyi Rih, with 5 dead and 32 injured.

March 7: The biggest Russian strike of the war Ukraine’s energy and gas infrastructure targeted across the nation. Russia launched 67 missiles of various types and 194 strike UAVs and decoy drones. At least 11 Ukrainians have lost their lives as a result.

Source: Ukrainian Air Force

For the first time this week, a Mirage-2000 fighter shot down a Russian Kh-101 cruise missile.

The graph below shows how Russian missile and drone attacks have increased since the inauguration of Donald Trump, and have accelerated since the beginning of ‘peace’ talks. This is yet another indication that Putin is not serious about a ceasefire unless he has to concede nothing.

Image: ISW

The Battlefield. First, in Kursk, both Ukrainian and Russian forces have conducted multiple ground attacks in the past week. The Russians appear to have taken some ground but the earlier reports of Ukrainian lines of communication being totally severed have not been confirmed. Certainly their LOC is able to be interdicted by drones, but the deep penetration by the Russians shown by some on social media don’t appear to be accurate.

Kursk operations 1-7 March 2025. Source: ISW

That said, the future of the Kursk salient must be in doubt. Putin has probably highly incentivized his military leadership to take it back before any peace negotiations take place. The tenuous nature of the lines of communication from the northern elements of the salient back into Ukraine is probably seeing a lot of contingency planning and wargaming taking place in case the Ukrainians need to conduct a withdrawal from the Kursk salient. I am not stating that is one the cards in the short term, but it could be necessary in the coming weeks.

Russia this week has made small advances on the following axes of advance:

• Kharkiv.

• Lyman.

• Toretsk.

• Kupyansk.

• Pokrovsk.

• Siversk.

Ukraine has continued its counter attacks in several regions during the week and made gains in Toretsk and Pokrovsk.

Assessment

It is difficult to come to any conclusion about the strategic situation in Ukraine, and in European security more generally, other than the Trump-Musk-MAGA regime is now acting as an ally of Russia. The actions of the U.S. administration in cutting off intelligence feeds, including commercial satellite imagery, will have an impact on battlefield operations, kill more Ukrainians and assist the Russian military. The cutting off of military aid will only compound the challenge for the Ukrainians and further delight Putin.

The statements about Ukrainian resistance to peace, which are ridiculous, only compounds the suffering of the Ukrainian people. At the same time, Russia is not being asked to concede anything but is being promised economic collaboration with America.

Now, I appreciate that the grand plan by Trump is to flip Russia and then jointly face off with China, but this is flawed. Russia hates the international system established by America at the end of the Second World War, and a key principle in its relationship with China is that they both wish to over turn that system. Why would Putin want to cooperate with America other than to get sanctions lifted and convince Trump to throw Ukraine under the bus?

Because of the Trump administration’s strong arm tactics towards Ukraine, in effect, every Ukrainian death, every act of Russian brutality, torture, rape and cultural destruction by Russian forces now accrues equally to Putin and Trump.

But, at least we know how the face of American diplomacy for at least the next four years, and possibly well into the future. The trust and relationships that have guided global stability and trade in the past 80 years (admittedly there have been some hiccups) are rapidly eroding if they are not already blown away in the tornado of the past few weeks.

And if those of us in the Pacific think we are immune to the geopolitical storm front that has smashed into Europe in the past few weeks, think again. In a recent article for the Sydney Morning Herald, I examined the implications of the new American posture towards Europe, and its allies more generally. America’s rough handling of nations such as Canada and Ukraine is indicative of the foundational method Trump will apply to all nations he perceives (or the MAGA base and Elon perceives) are ‘ripping off’ America.

This week, an initial shot at Pacific nations was fired when Trump mentioned Japan during an Oval Office interview. For those who don’t remember, Japan has been a responsible member of the international community for 80 years. It recently doubled the amount of its GDP for defence spending (already a considerable amount). Japan also pays about $2 billion per year to defray the cost of stationing U.S. military personnel in Japan, and it pays compensation to localities hosting U.S. troops, rent for the bases, and the costs of new facilities.

So when Trump this week claimed that “we have an interesting deal with Japan, that we have to protect them, but they don't have to protect us.... who makes these deals?”, you know he is thinking about renegotiating its alliance (signed in 1951) and other partnerships with Japan including the $300 billion trade relationship. We all need to be prepared for a realignment of security relationships in the Pacific; it isn’t just a Europe thing.

The best that might be said about the current situation is that all of us are now unmoored from the firm foundations that have guided defence and security strategy in western nations for the last three quarters of a century. Which reminds of me of a terrific quote from the late Sir Michael Howard. In a speech to called “Military Science in an Age of Peace”, given in 1973, he stated that:

The military must not see themselves, as they all too frequently do, as an old order defending civilised values against a revolutionary threat: people in an ocean liner peering uneasily out through the portholes at an increasingly stormy sea outside. They should see themselves as intelligent surf riders spotting the essential currents in a sea which is certainly disturbed and by no means friendly but on which, if they are skilful enough, they will survive.

We are now all “the people in an ocean liner peering uneasily out through the portholes at an increasingly stormy sea.” We need to re-learn, in a different geopolitical setting, how to be the intelligent strategic surf-riders who can succeed in the 21st century.

*****

So, to this week’s recommended readings.

This week, I have included two articles that explore the trajectory of autonomous weapon systems, in Ukraine and in China. There is a great essay from Sir Lawrence Freedman that examines Europe’s movement towards great defence capacity, its support for Ukraine and potential for involvement in Ukraine peace negotiations. There is a wonderful article from Molly McKew that explores the impact on America of the first weeks of the Trump administration and a good article on negotiating from a position of strength.

As always, if you only have time to read one of my recommendations, the first one is my read of the week.

Happy reading!

1. American Decline and Pickled Eggs

I have chosen a really terrific piece of writing from Molly McKew as my top pick for this week. There is so much in this piece, and the following passage is just one of my favorite parts: “the decade of deep information manipulation has left us a nation of cripples on our own psychological defense, and we literally see nothing as it actually is. And this madness is so terrifying, no one with any real power is willing to intervene.” It is an article that is at once disturbing and amazing. Read it here.

2. AI-Powered Drones

This new paper from CSIS examines how Ukraine is advancing AI-driven uncrewed systems and how it seeks reduce direct human involvement while at the same time improve combat effectiveness. As the the author notes, “although fully autonomous warfare remains an aspiration, significant progress has already been made in partial autonomy—particularly for aerial systems.” You can read the full report here.

3. Europe’s Time to Shine

In this piece, Sir Lawrence Freedman examines the fallout from the 28 February Oval Office brawl, and the European meetings in London and elsewhere that have taken place to develop a strategy to support Ukraine without America. You can read the full article at this link.

4. Autonomous Battle

This new article from DefenseOne examines China’s efforts to not only increase the level of autonomy in weapon systems through the use of AI, but to broaden its use to targeting, weapon selection and launch, route planning and the conduct of follow-up strikes when necessary. Needless to say, this is not a very positive development given that there is no such thing as perfect code, so mistakes are inevitable. But, we need to ensure we are closely following Chinese developments on this topic. You can read the article here.

5. Negotiating from a Position of Strength

My final recommendation is another article from the always excellent Modern War Institute. In this piece, the author proposes that “as we enter into negotiations to end the Russo-Ukraine War, we need to negotiate from a position of strength.” This is very true, but it does not appear to be what the current Trump administration is aiming for. You can read the full piece at this link.