The Expanding Campaign
My regular update on global conflict. This week, Israel's expanding campaign against Iran, updates from Ukraine and the Pacific theatres as well as my weekly top 5 recommended reads.
Welcome to this week’s edition of The Big Five.
First, welcome home to the Ukrainian military personnel who were exchanged in the latest Ukraine-Russia prisoner swap. There were four exchanges this week.
In this edition of The Big Five, I examine the latests developments in Russia’s war against Ukraine, provide updates on the Israel-Iran conflict and explore developments in the Pacific theatre.
As always, I conclude with my top five war and national security reads from the week.
Ukraine
While many will be exclusively focused on the Middle East this weekend, I encourage my readers to not take their eyes off the war in Ukraine. The Ukrainians continue to defend against Russian ground and aerial onslaughts. They require not only weapons from the west to continue their defence, but our attention and moral support as well.
Russian Casualties Hit One Million. This week, Russian casualties in Ukraine hit the one million mark. It comes as Russia continues to press forward with its summer offensives in the north east, east and south of Ukraine. The UK Ministry of Defence this week provided an update on Russian casualties, which was followed by another post on Russia hitting the one million casualties mark.
The update noted that of these one million casualties, around one quarter were killed or missing, and that 20% of all casualties had been sustained in just the past five months. But even so, these numbers are unlikely to curb Putin’s brutal ambitions or the strategy of his military commanders. The British update notes that “Russia's senior leadership are almost certainly prepared to tolerate continuously high resultant casualty rates so long as this does not negatively affect public or elite support for the war, and those losses can be replaced.”
Putin Condemns Attack on Iran. In one of the least surprising developments in the past 24 hours, the Russian leader has condemned Israel’s attack on Iran. Apparently he made this statement during a happy birthday call to President Trump.
U.S. to Reduce Ukraine Aid. In a congressional hearing in Washington DC this week, the U.S. Secretary of Defense stated that aid to Ukraine would be reduced in its 2026 budget. Hegseth noted that "this administration takes a very different view of that conflict. We believe that a negotiated peaceful settlement is in the best interest of both parties and our nation's interests, especially with all the competing interests around the globe."
The Hague NATO Summit. An important upcoming event is the 2025 NATO Summit. From 24 to 25 June, the Netherlands will host the NATO Summit 2025. There are a range of issues on the agenda. While the NATO website lists some generic topics for the summit, key issues are likely to include the NATO presence in Eastern Europe to deter Russian aggression, combating Russian subversion and sabotage across Europe, addressing the resilience of NATO countries including protection of communications and enhancement of defence production, cyber defence, nuclear deterrence, and the continued evolution of NATO’s force model, the Allied Reaction Force.
Unfortunately, one issue that probably won’t be on the agenda is Ukraine’s membership of NATO.
New Unmanned Systems Force Commander and Strategy. On 11 June, Major Robert Brovdi, known as “Madyar,” officially assumed command of the Unmanned Systems Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. After his assumption of command, Brovdi released an action plan for the next 100 days. Among the key goals, which include standardisation, production, training and operational goals, are:
Unified System. All Drone Line units performing combat missions at the front will operate in a unified electronic system of planning, analysis, coordination, management, and online reporting with automatic verification of all results.
Increasing own active production of ammunition for competent and timely provision, and not according to the final principle "we fight with what we have left". Ammunition awaits pilots, not vice versa.
Ground robotic complexes as the main means of logistics for BC, drones and peripherals to pilots at positions, etc.
Unified SBS recruitment campaign and basic + professional simultaneously (similar to the already introduced training system in the Drone Line), own network of FPV schools, bombers, wings, and fighters.
Unified composition of critical components. Creation of a single supply warehouse and timely provision of units with a package of 50 critical means and components (such as StarLink, additional drone batteries, mobile REBs, FPV and bomber customisation components, peripherals, power banks, pickups).
R&D: center for innovation and implementation of developments). Transformation of the existing centre from brigade level to the level of troop support.
Strategic Strikes Continue. Both Ukraine and Russia have continued their aerial strikes against each other in the past week. During the week, Ukraine struck several sites deep in Russia. Among these was a chemical plant in the Stavropol region. The site struck was about 1000 kilometres from Ukraine. The same evening as this strike, a chemical plant in Russia’s Samara region was also hit. These targets were hit in order to degrade Russia’s capacity to manufacture components for explosives, ammunition, and rocket fuel.
Russia continued its aerial onslaught against targets across Ukraine. The attacks have continued throughout the week, although those in the past couple of nights have been at a reduced rate compared to the very large drone and missile attacks of earlier in the week (as seen below).
Israel-Iran Conflict
Israel appears to have seized control of the airspace over large parts of Iran. Israeli Air Force aircraft are now able to fly over Tehran with minimal resistance. There are no verified reports of any Israeli aircraft being lost over Iran. The Prime Minister of Israel has threatened that “Israel will strike every site of the ayatollah’s regime.”
Expanding Target Lists. Israel has broadened out its target list in Iran in the past 24 hours. Initial targets included military commanders, nuclear sites, long-range strike capabilities and air defence infrastructure. Israel has continued servicing this target list, including attacking senior military officers at the Iranian Defence Ministry and at their homes.
One particularly effective strike was the killing of Iran’s Air Force chief, Brigadier General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, alongside his most senior leaders, in an underground bunker. According to the IDF, other killed with him included the heads of Iran’s drone unit and its air defence command.
It is very likely that Israeli intelligence folks will be doing analysis of their initial strikes against Iranian nuclear infrastructure and developing plans to re-strike those which are insufficiently damaged.
The Israeli government had issued a public warning early in their strike campaign against targeting Israel’s civilian population, which Iran promptly ignored. The Iranians have even bragged about attacking Israel with a new kind of ballistic missile with a maneuverable warhead. Several Israeli civilians have been killed by Iran’s missile strikes against Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and northern Israel, and many more injured.
Therefore, Israel has therefore gone ahead and begun to target Iran’s oil industry with strikes. The Israeli Air Force has attacked the South Pars gas field in Iran’s southern Bushehr region. There are also reports that Israel has hit the Fajr Jam Natural Gas Refinery, and the Kangan LNG Port on the coast of the Persian Gulf. Israel also appears to have targeted an oil depot in Tehran.
Consequently, oil prices have increased by around 7-10% since the start of the Israel-Iran conflict.
Finally, it has been reported that Israel has invited the United States to join them in their ‘happy time’ over Iran, and to assist in striking key nuclear infrastructure targets within Iran. It is hard to see this happening, but given the state of the world right now, anything is possible.
Iran’s Response Limited by Israel’s Strikes. Before the Israeli campaign began a couple of days ago, Israeli intelligence believed that Iran had about 2000 long-range ballistic missiles that could have been employed to attack Israel. Further, Israeli intelligence projected that Iran might be able to manufacture another 6000 of these missiles in the next couple of years. Consequently, the Israeli’s hit the munitions depots where many of the Iranian missiles were stored in the early waves of their attacks.
Fortunately for Israel, the Iranians had previously posted videos of their underground storage depots for these missiles. This probably helped in finding and targeting them. The Israeli Defence Force (IDF) has recently posted an updated version of these videos, which you can see here.
Initial Israeli strikes will have focussed on current stocks of Iranian ballistic missiles, which has kept the the number of missiles or drones in each Iranian volley down to a manageable number for Israel’s air defence system (even though some unfortunately still get through).
It is probable that Israel will continue to target munitions storage depots (just as the Ukrainians have done against Russia) while widening their strikes against the factories that manufacture the missiles as well.
The Week Ahead. Iran is likely to continue its volleys of missiles and drones that it is launching at Israel. But if the Israeli Air Force continues to target missile storage depots and launch systems, the volume of missiles and drones in each Iranian attack wave may begin to decline as the week progresses.
Iran’s response options to Israel have been degraded in the past couple of years. Israel’s attacks on Hamas and Hezbollah have reduced their capacity to contribute to attacks on Israel, although they might still have some capacity to do so. The Houthis are also probably willing to help Iran out, but Israel’s attack against senior Houthi leaders in the past 24 hours will be designed to deter such attacks.
Iran will probably have its proxies attack U.S. bases in the region and will potentially commission attacks against Israeli interests further afield. At least one story has speculated about whether Iran might seek to close the Strait of Hormuz.
Israel is clearly going to continue hitting Iran for as long as it can to do as much damage as possible to Iran’s nuclear, ballistic missile, drone and other offensive capabilities. As I forecast in my article yesterday, this will be a campaign that is weeks long, not days long.
One potentially bad outcome of the current conflict is that Iran decides to go all out to develop a nuclear weapon as soon as possible as a result of Israel’s attacks against its nuclear and military infrastructure. The Iranian leadership want to address a feeling of defencelessness in the face of Israel’s attacks.
The Pacific
Chinese Carrier Deployments. The key news this week has been that China has deployed two aircraft carrier battle groups beyond the first island chain for the first time. The two carrier battle groups, based around the carriers Shandong and Liaoning have been operating to the south west and the south east of Iwo Jima.
This demonstration of concurrent aircraft carrier operations at some distance from China not only shows the continued development of the PLA-Navy’s capacity, it is a strategic messaging activity for regional nations and the United States.
Chinese Incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ. This week, Ian Ellis Jones released an updated graph on Chinese incursions into the Taiwanese ADIZ this year. China has sent 1,755 PLA aircraft into Taiwan’s ADIZ or across the median line so far in 2025. This is an increase of 118% over 2024. The 2025 total so far is more than the the total recorded for all of 2023 (1,703).
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It’s time to turn to this week’s recommended readings.
This week, I have included an article by Lawrence Freedman that examines the latest developments in Israel’s attack against Iran’s nuclear program and likely future developments. There is also an article that examines the forthcoming Hague NATO summit and the dimensions of the Trump administration’s participation in the summit.
There is an article from Politico that explores Israel’s potential end game for Operation Rising Lion, an article on reform within the Chinese PLA, and an interesting piece on a new, large stealthy aircraft being developed by China.
As always, if you only have time to read one of my recommendations, the first one is my read of the week.
Happy reading!
1. Israel and Iran: What Next?
In this essay, Lawrence Freedman examines the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, the role of the U.S. in the conflict and the future of the regime in Tehran. As Freedman notes, “this is about the future of the clerical regime as much as it is about the future of its nuclear programme. Of course if both survive then Netanyahu will also have to face the hard questions about strategic purpose.” The article is available at this link.
2. Trump and the Rebalancing of NATO
In this piece, the author examines the relationship between NATO and the second Trump administration, and what that might mean for the upcoming Hague NATO summit. As the author notes, “the Trump agenda towards NATO is a practical recognition of new realities, and more a long overdue re-balancing of the transatlantic relationship to reflect the administration’s geostrategic worldview and domestic priorities." You can read the full article here.
3. Endgame in the Middle East
In this piece from Politico, the author explores the potential end game scenarios for Israel’s current operation against Iran. In essence, what are the strategic ‘ends’ sought by Israel’s political leadership? There is speculation that regime change is part of Israel’s strategic calculus. But as the author notes, “even if the regime falls, there’s no reason to be certain that something better will replace it, current and former officials warn. A failed, leaderless Iranian state could be a breeding ground for all sorts of new problems. A much more militarized autocracy also could take over, one unabashedly determined to obtain a nuclear weapon.” The article is available at this link.
4. Reform in the People’s Liberation Army
In this article, published by Joint Forces Quarterly, China and PLA expert Joel Wuthnow explores the current state of military reform in China’s People’s Liberation Army. He notes that “deterring Chinese adventurism across the Taiwan Strait requires undermining Chinese leadership’s confidence in China’s ability to prevail at an acceptable cost. Continued reforms to the PLA’s structure that promote greater “combat effectiveness” make that task more difficult.” The full article is available at this link.
5. China’s Big New Stealthy Aircraft
This week, images emerged of a large, stealthy flying wing aircraft at a Chinese base in Xinjiang province. The story from The War Zone notes that “the newly emerged aircraft itself appears impressive. It is a large flying wing that has a span of roughly 52 meters, or about 170 feet. The B-2 Spirit is 172 feet wide, for comparison, and the B-21 is a bit smaller. The best explanation is that this is a very large, high-altitude, long-endurance (HALE) stealthy drone.” You can read more at this link.
"Creation of a single supply warehouse" is hopefully not meant literally. A unified logistics system is good. A single warehouse is a single target is a single point of failure.
However, that is Soviet thinking. "One big factory, the biggest in the world" not several smaller ones, etc.
Thank you for the update. Many of us here in the US continue to support Ukraine and call our representatives in Congress. We will mot give up.