The Fall of Avdiivka

Implications and Russia's Next Moves

Image: @IAPononmarenko at Twitter / X

Our soldiers performed their military duty with dignity, did everything possible to destroy the best Russian military units, inflicted significant losses on the enemy in terms of manpower and equipment. We are taking measures to stabilize the situation and maintain our positions. General Syrskyi Telegram post

The Ukrainian city of Avdiivka has fallen to the Russian forces. In a Telegram post, the Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Syrskyi, notes that “I decided to withdraw our units from the city and move to defense on more favorable lines.”

The recent Battle of Avdiivka is actually the second major battle fought for the city. During the war in Donbas a major battle for the city and its surrounds took place in 2017. Since then, the city has been further fortified by the Ukrainians and viewed as launch point for a future return of Ukrainian forces – and the Ukrainian government – to the nearby Russian occupied city of Donetsk.

The city was subject to attack almost from the beginning of the 2022 large scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.

These Russian assaults stepped up in late 2023.

In several bloody attacks by Russian mechanised units, the Ukrainians inflicted heavy casualties on Russian forces. But, demonstrating the target fixation that they showed at Bakhmut, the Russians persisted. Adapting their approach, including the use of tunnels and a mix of mounted and dismounted tactics, the Russians eventually focussed on the envelopment of the city and nearby coke plant.

The creeping Russian offensive, making the most of Ukrainian personnel and artillery shortfalls, has seen the Russians successfully force a Ukrainian withdrawal from the city. Both sides have suffered significant casualties as a result.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has stated that Russian forces have established “full control” over Avdiivka. This is to be expected, but one wonders why this statement didn’t come from the overall Russian commander in Ukraine, General Gerasimov.