The strategic patience of citizens in democracies is built on a foundation of knowledge and purpose. Contemporary politicians need to improve their capacity to explain modern war and the necessity of defending democracies.
The war in Ukraine has reached its second anniversary, giving an opportunity to reflect on the costs and lessons.
Much has been written about how grim the situation is. Many analysts have explored shortfalls in munitions and people, particularly in the Ukrainian armed forces, and how this has impacted frontline operations. The recent civil-military crisis in Ukraine saw the appointment of a new commander-in-chief but has had an impact on Ukraine's international reputation.
All of this should be understood within a broader context for this war. The most important aspect of context is the 2024 strategic goals held by the Ukrainian and Russian leaders.
What does Putin seek this year?
There is no mystery about Putin's war aims. Explained in his speeches on February 21 and 24, 2022, and in many communiques since, Putin aims to keep the pressure on Ukraine and do everything possible to ensure that the world understands that Ukraine is not a sovereign nation. Putin also portrays Russia as the victim of a NATO plot and Ukrainian "Nazis". This is a narrative that he will continue to roll out this year.
While Putin is engaging in this misinformation campaign, he will exhort his military to seize as much Ukrainian territory as possible.
Russia is currently waging a wide-scale ground and air offensive across Ukraine. As the Russians continue to make small gains in taking Ukrainian territory, Putin will wish to convince the world that only Russia is capable of winning this war.
He has already convinced some in the U.S. Congress of this. Putin appears to sense an opportunity for victory in 2024 although this is unlikely.
Read the rest of my article on the strategic objectives of Zelenskyy and Putin in 2024 here for free at ABC Australia.
Excellent piece Mick, especially the aspect of strategic patience and the vulnerability of western democracies if leaders can't explain the essence of the contest or are driven by the 24/7 news cycle. In Timor in 2006 my campaign plan centred on three principles - presence, patience and perseverance. Patience was the one principle that my masters in Canberra had the most problem with!