The Ukrainian 2023 Offensives

Early Thoughts on the Initial Phase

(Image: @Combined2Forces)

In his 9 June speech, President Zelensky noted that “for our soldiers, for all those who are in particularly tough battles these days. We see your heroism.” Zelensky then continued, on what was a quite sombre note, “we are grateful to you for every minute of your life.”

Perhaps more than anyone else, the Ukrainian President understands the full cost of what he has now ordered his soldiers to do in the 2023 Ukrainian offensive. He will have made the final decision to commence the current operations. He, ultimately, bears responsibility for the outcome.

Now that the Ukrainian 2023 offensive has commenced, it is worth pondering some initial insights. That said, it remains very early days.

While many in the media and military commentary community describe the ongoing Ukrainian operations as a counteroffensive, I will be describing it as the 2023 offensive or 2023 campaign. These terms make more sense to me in the overall context of what is taking place now across the multiple operations and offensives along a 1000km frontline in Ukraine.

It is also worth remembering the importance of not just tactics, but operational art in the weeks and months ahead. A terrific exploration of this is contained in B.A. Friedman’s recent book, On Operations. In it, the author notes that:

Tactical actions are grouped into campaigns, which must be planned, prepared, conducted and sustained. Operational art is the planning, preparation, conduct, and sustainment of tactics aimed at achieving strategic effect.

I have frequently written, during this war, about the requirement to link tactics and strategy through operational planning and art. I won’t belabour the point here, other than to note that there is a larger strategic context to the conduct of the nascent Ukrainian 2023 offensives.