Those Leaked Pentagon Documents

Thoughts on the Leaks About Ukraine (and other security partners)

(Image: CNN)

This week, there have been at least two purported intelligence leaks reported by the New York Times and other publications. A first small batch apparently appeared on Twitter and Telegram. These were mainly focussed on the war in Ukraine and was composed of photographs of power point slides from a US military briefing. At least some of the images appeared to have been tampered with before they were posted online.

A subsequent set of documents was uploaded onto social media sites. These documents apparently concern issues beyond Ukraine and include information on allies and close US security partners such as the Republic of Korea and Israel. They also cover the middle east and the Indo-Pacific theatre.

Leaks such as these can have a multitude of damaging consequences. They can expose sensitive collection capabilities as well as impending plans and strategies prior to their execution. At their worst, they can cost the lives of intelligence operatives and soldiers on military operations. A couple of good articles that explore the cost of intelligence leaks include these pieces from the American Intelligence Journal and RAND.

Impact of the Leaks

At this stage, it is difficult to assess the accuracy of the leaked documents, the veracity of the information they appear to contain or the purpose for which they were leaked. However, even at this early point, I wanted to provide a short update on some of the likely impacts.

First, every intelligence agency in every nation mentioned in the documents is probably already well into a damage assessment activity. Intelligence and military institutions will be conducting examinations of what was leaked and how this might impact on current military and intelligence operations, as well as those planned in the near future. This is a massively time-consuming activity and is not something that can be tasked to computer algorithms or something like ChatGPT. Humans will be needed in large numbers to undertake these risk assessments, and to develop mitigation plans.

A second impact is that this will be hugely distracting to intelligence agencies, particularly at a time when these same agencies are over-tasked and over-worked in supporting Ukrainian operations as well as preparation for future conflicts in places such as the Indo-Pacific. There will be a large opportunity cost for the time spent in risk assessments and implementing mitigation plans, even though they are very necessary. There will also be many senior intelligence operatives in Beijing and Moscow who will not only be hugely entertained by this, but who will be finding ways to make the leaks hurt Ukraine, the United States and other nations even more than they already have.

A third impact is trust. It has taken some time, but there is an obvious level of deep trust between US and Ukrainian officials that will now be strained by these leaks.  Early in the war, there were allegations that the Ukrainian military was not being as open in sharing information with the Americans as they should be. At the same time, America officials were reticent to openly describe what intelligence was being shared with Ukraine.

Before the leaks, there was a significant amount of sharing of information and not just intelligence. Data on weapons and munitions stockholdings as well as where Ukraine was using or deploying donated weapons was being shared. With these leaks, there will be some who will be tempted on both sides to pull back from such openness. This would not only hinder Ukraine’s war effort but would aid Russia. Hopefully cool heads will prevail (I expect they will).

A fourth impact is that this has provided Russia and China a massive gift in their war of influence with the United States and other democracies. The US will (again) be accused of spying on its allies and not being trustworthy with the sensitive information of its security partners. This is actually a significant impact and something that US diplomats are undoubtedly already speaking to their foreign partners about.

While it is still early days, China and Russia will want to use the leaks to continue their efforts to corrode America’s security relationships and alliances in Europe, the middle east and Asia. In China’s case, these leaks provide a very useful distraction from their enhanced campaign of intimidation against Taiwan being undertaken in the wake of the Taiwanese President’s visit to the United States.

A final impact is the trust that individuals place in the information they receive. The battle for influence has become such an important aspect of contemporary operations that it has become difficult for many of our citizens – and even our military – to ascertain the difference between truth and fiction. As one Ukrainian military officer stated this week in a New York Times article, “we can no longer determine where is the truth and where is the lie.” This is a corrosive trend for democracies. It is disastrous for military institutions in the middle of a fight for the survival of their nations.

More to Come?

There may well be more leaks in the coming days. And we are likely to learn more about the accuracy of the information contained in the leaks. We might even, at some point, learn who was responsible. Regardless, the leaking of these documents has already had a major impact on trust and relationships.

It is still too early to tell whether this will have a significant impact on the trajectory of the war overall. But, the leaks are a dream come true for Putin and Xi.

The leaks are also a nightmare for President Biden, Secretary General Stoltenberg, and President Zelensky. And finally, the leaks are a massive kick in the stomach for the soldiers seeking to hold the line in the defence of Ukraine.

They deserve better.