Authoritarians perceive that they have a historic opportunity to shift the balance of power in the world. The shining light on the hill for democracies — the US is viewed as weakened, internally riven and no longer able to resource a "world's policeman" role. Europe has largely eschewed large standing military institutions and has few high-readiness forces for deployment beyond the continent.
This perception of weakness in democracy is provocative. In the coming year, countries like Iran, China, and Russia will continue to exploit this perception of weakness. Australia, a mid-sized nation that is reliant on international trade and security relationships with the US, Japan and others, will be negatively impacted by this deteriorating environment.
The outcome of the current struggle between authoritarians and democracies is far from certain. But current trends in civil discourse, political friction and small defence budgets in democracies don't auger well for a positive 2024.
In a recent article, British strategist James Sherr wrote that "as in the 1930s, feebleness abets cynicism and defeatism …The question today is not whether the West is doing what is required but whether it is capable of doing it".
This is a fine question that politicians and strategists will need to ponder — and answer — in the year ahead.
Read my full article, published this morning (for free) here at ABC Australia.
Dare I say that globally 2024 is as dangerous and potentially explosive as the late 1930s. Authoritarianism is on the rise as it was in the 1930s (then Japan, Soviet Union, Nazi Germany, Italy) and today it is PRC, Russia, Iran.
The 1930s we saw the fall of the Spanish Republic to Franco’s Fascists with the help of Italy and Germany. Czechoslovakia was sacrificed at the alter of “peace in our time” without a fight. These two historic episodes many “realists”’want to repeat in Ukraine.
In the 1930s it was Japan carving up China and Korea, and today it is China wanting to absorb Taiwan as the next developed democracy and economy to be wrecked by Beijing (following Hong Kong).
In the 1930s it was Italy’s war in Ethiopia and today the Horn of Africa is the “quietest” side of the Red Sea with the Houthi’s attempting to shut down internal maritime shipping through Suez.
The one thing added to volatile mix today is Israel and the Palestinians.
To say that history repeats itself may be too literal, but it sure looks and feels like we have seen this movie before and if the “West” does not learn those lessons from the past, I fear what comes next.
Thanks Mick certainly worrying times. We need strong leaders with good communication skills who can bring the people along with them. My biggest fear is a lack of strong leadership and trusting the people to tell them what is needed openly and honestly.