The US House of Representatives recently elected a new Speaker after a long and rancorous debate. A bill to fund continued American support for Ukraine’s war effort is now on the agenda. But newly elected Speaker Mike Johnson has an inauspicious voting record on Ukraine assistance. In some respects, the election of a US Speaker who has opposed aid to Ukraine is a harbinger of the headwinds facing Kyiv as it plans for what will be a difficult 2024.
Politics will prove rough for Ukraine in the year ahead. Both the United States and Russia have elections in 2024. In Russia, Vladimir Putin will seek to demonstrate that Russian forces have made gains before the election, and this is what is partially driving the elevated levels of Russian offensive operations in Ukraine.
Read more of my article for The Lowy Institute’s The Interpreter here (for free):
https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/ukraine-2024-headwinds