Ukraine Lessons for the Pacific
Introducing a New Series on Translating the Lessons of Ukraine to the Pacific Ocean region
The roots of victory and defeat often have to be sought far from the battlefield, in political, social and economic factors which explain why armies are constituted as they are, and why their leaders conduct them in the way they do.
Sir Michael Howard, The Use and Abuse of Military History, 1961
There are many lessons that can be taken from the war in Ukraine. Indeed, it is somewhat of a major industry now, with many government, academic and defence industry organisations engaging in the collection, analysis, distribution and exploitation of lessons from the conflict in Ukraine.
But all observations and lessons must be subject to contextual examination. Sir Michael Howard wrote that history should be studied in depth, width and context. He noted in his famous 1961 speech that:
Campaigns and battles are not like games of chess or football matches, conducted in total detachment from their environment according to strictly defined rules. Wars are not tactical exercises writ large. They are…conflicts of societies, and they can only be understood if one understands the society fighting them…Without some such knowledge of the broader background to military operations one is likely to reach totally erroneous conclusions about their nature, and the reasons for their failure and success.
Context matters in the further examination of lessons from the Ukraine War. The relevance of a given lesson from the Ukraine war for other theatres will depend on a range of different geographic, technological or political factors. My observation of the many, many articles on the lessons from Ukraine in the past 26 months is that the vast majority suffer from a lack of contextual translation. The lessons are in the main taken directly from the war in Ukraine and assumed to have direct application in other contexts.
While the lessons from the war in Ukraine are vital for European nations that have now realised the profound threat posed by a resurgent and aggressive Russia, they also have application in other parts of the world. Perhaps no region of the world needs to examine the lessons from the Ukraine War as much as the nations in the Pacific region.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Futura Doctrina to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.