Ukraine’s Victory Plan

Why theories of victory matter and what Ukraine’s victory plan needs to achieve

Source: Office of the President of Ukraine

In a media conference last week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy discussed the broad outlines of what he called a Victory Plan. Zelenskyy has also referred to this victory plan in comments in the past few days about the ongoing Ukrainian campaign in Kursk. The Ukrainian president has stated that the Kursk campaign was an element in a four-stage plan and that he would be briefing the U.S. president on the plan this month.

Victory is an important concept in the study of the phenomenon of war, and in how nations fight for political objectives. It is an idea with ancient origins. Aristotle called it the telos, or the final natural form, of military science. In The Art of War, Sun Tzu called victory the main object in war: “A skilled commander seeks victory from the situation and does not demand it from his subordinates.”

However, victory is more than the achievement of military objectives. In The Evolution of Strategy, Beatrice Heuser examines how military victory may not result in the lasting achievement of a nation’s war aims. Heuser expands on this exploration of victory in a 2013 article in Joint Forces Quarterly, writing that “the most important aim in any war must be ‘to make a just and durable peace.’ Victory is nothing if it does not lead to such a peace, and such justice must be seen as reasonable by both sides to make it durable.”

A contemporary concept of victory must therefore embrace objectives beyond military activity. Theories of victory must include economic, diplomatic, and societal long-term needs as well as short- and medium-term military outcomes. And, a theory of victory or a Victory Plan, should include how to win the war as well as win the peace.

In this article, I will explore why Ukraine is proposing a Victory Plan now, and what the Victory Plan might contain.