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Bjorn Hamso's avatar

I find it worrisome, at this stage, that Crimea is discussed as if a special case. Putin’s and Russians’ affection for Crimea don’t matter. It’s Ukrainian territory. Leaving it in Russian hands is the reward to the aggressor that makes him come back for more and more. Ben Hodges has the right idea, make a corridor to the Azov Sea (no easy task), thereby cutting off the “land bridge” supply line to Crimea. Take out the Kerch bridge with long-range artillery. Shell airbases and Sevastopol naval harbor (if any Russian ships left). An untenable situation for Russia on Crimea should perhaps be an early war target for Ukraine. If Russia loses its crown jewel of looted land, the rest may fall into place more easily.

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Andrew Pavelyev's avatar

If Ukraine liberates Crimea, operations in the eastern territories occupied since 2014 may not even be necessary, since Russian population will be shocked by the loss of Crimea and will realize that the war is lost (now most Russians still assume that eventually Russia will win the entire war). That may potentially lead to the fall of Putin and earnest negotiations to end the war, since not many people will see a lot of value in bloody fighting to hold on to a strip of land in Donbas and it will be clear to most Russians that they'd need a total mobilization to even have a chance of reconquering Crime, which nobody will want.

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