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I find it worrisome, at this stage, that Crimea is discussed as if a special case. Putin’s and Russians’ affection for Crimea don’t matter. It’s Ukrainian territory. Leaving it in Russian hands is the reward to the aggressor that makes him come back for more and more. Ben Hodges has the right idea, make a corridor to the Azov Sea (no easy task), thereby cutting off the “land bridge” supply line to Crimea. Take out the Kerch bridge with long-range artillery. Shell airbases and Sevastopol naval harbor (if any Russian ships left). An untenable situation for Russia on Crimea should perhaps be an early war target for Ukraine. If Russia loses its crown jewel of looted land, the rest may fall into place more easily.

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If Ukraine liberates Crimea, operations in the eastern territories occupied since 2014 may not even be necessary, since Russian population will be shocked by the loss of Crimea and will realize that the war is lost (now most Russians still assume that eventually Russia will win the entire war). That may potentially lead to the fall of Putin and earnest negotiations to end the war, since not many people will see a lot of value in bloody fighting to hold on to a strip of land in Donbas and it will be clear to most Russians that they'd need a total mobilization to even have a chance of reconquering Crime, which nobody will want.

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Jan 31, 2023·edited Jan 31, 2023

Western and allied support has to fit the goal of returning Crimea, very believably absolutely necessary for a real end to war and a possible peace. We may seem a long way from that, and hesitancy ( fear) about it adds to that perception, keeping back, *preventing*, the fullest support. "To be or not to be." But if "to be" it is, lest we lose, imagine, then full support had better happen now, not incrementally. This is an echo of many voices, lately Michael McFaul in Foreign Affairs. So say it: "Crimea must go back to Ukraine". https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/how-get-breakthrough-ukraine

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Many thanks Mick for your insightful & balanced views.

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Thanks for another informative article.

Imho, it's _more_ difficult, after 2022, for Ukraine to cede territory to Moscow, since cession is now almost impossible to frame as other than a victory for RF; and the behaviour of RF forces, military & civil, in occupied lands leads many to conclude that Ukraine has a moral obligation to free the territory.

But for Ukraine to agree to a ceasefire with RF forces still in occupation is also very difficult, not only because of the sense of moral obligation just described, but also because the Kremlin can hardly be trusted to observe the ceasefire other than as an opportunity to recover before making another attack.

This is not to say that Ukraine has no room to negotiate. For example, if Ukraine were a member of NATO, Kyiv (and the people of Ukraine, who have to approve a settlement) may be content for Crimea to be a demilitarised zone, and this may satisfy some RF concerns.

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Perhaps these are typos?

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articles that speculate about this scenario, Regardless, nuclear weapons cannot be

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Martin.

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you have schizofrenia

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Great article, Mick. Thanks for sharing your thoughts and expertise on this complicated situation. Whatever happens, it will be a long, deadly slog.

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Have one read "Crimea: The Last Crusade" by British historian Orlando Figes ? I am very fond of history, reading a lot on various subjects. And I recommend for those interested, this revisiting/reading, which might shed a light on the ambitions of Russia to hold Crimeea. Study was published before 2019. So not influenced by current events.

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