Very good article. I'd say you'd make a great J2, but that sometimes doesn't go over well with the combat arms....Maintaining some offensive pressure while preparing for a defensive battle is not mutually exclusive and would be in keeping with Russian doctrine on 'active defence'. I agree with you that the Russians are shifting to a long war posture and believe the Ukrainians and the West will tire before they do. I would categorize the Ukrainians right now as in the "grim determination" phase of the war: hanging on while they await the counter-offensive. The most morale destroying thing for the Ukrainians, and the West, would be the failure of their initial counter-offensive with, possibly, the loss of a large amount of western equipment. That would be catastrophic and could shift Ukrainian and western views on the war. As a result, a Russian focus on preparing to defend and counter the offensive, while doing all they can to disrupt it, has to be viewed as a serious COA for the short to medium term.
Thoughtful article, which deserves reading both in isolation, and alongside your previous subject-matter blogs. As you headlined previously - timing seems critical. And even if the recent information leaks have been both damaging and embarrassing, anyone with an understanding of where the Ukrainian nation and its military have come from (particularly 1991, 2014, and 2022) would have understood their challenges - and yet how indomitable they have been so far in this war. The strategic political and military direction on the Ukrainian side that has been a linchpin to this resistance to date gives me hope. One would have wished NATO and other Western-affiliated nations had been less gradualist in their support, but governments only move at the (perceived) speed of their electorates. It takes an exceptional leader ("Churchillian" comes to mind, even if that comparison is tinted by the rose-colored lens of ultimate victory) for things to go otherwise. I won't second-guess the tactical, beyond the "timing" comment; just quote MG Ryan again: We wish them well.
I feel like shifting axis towards Melitopol direction will be most likely as this is the most logical direction for Ukrainian to attack in their offensive. I imagine they will try to defend their current position around Bakhmut at the same time
I think options 1 and 4 are more realistic. And are somewhat similar to each other. (Probably a spectrum between them.) This is a grinding war. Trenches and artillery.
I think the "massive losses" and "human waves" is overdone media chatter. And you are starting to hear this bleed out from people like Koffman. This doesn't mean the pro-Russian analysts are right either. They've been wrong over and over for a year now). But, I'm still wary of the (agreed slighter) bias of the pro Ukraine media and analyist/consultant/FFRDC complex.
Very good article. I'd say you'd make a great J2, but that sometimes doesn't go over well with the combat arms....Maintaining some offensive pressure while preparing for a defensive battle is not mutually exclusive and would be in keeping with Russian doctrine on 'active defence'. I agree with you that the Russians are shifting to a long war posture and believe the Ukrainians and the West will tire before they do. I would categorize the Ukrainians right now as in the "grim determination" phase of the war: hanging on while they await the counter-offensive. The most morale destroying thing for the Ukrainians, and the West, would be the failure of their initial counter-offensive with, possibly, the loss of a large amount of western equipment. That would be catastrophic and could shift Ukrainian and western views on the war. As a result, a Russian focus on preparing to defend and counter the offensive, while doing all they can to disrupt it, has to be viewed as a serious COA for the short to medium term.
Dear Major General, Ryan!
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Thoughtful article, which deserves reading both in isolation, and alongside your previous subject-matter blogs. As you headlined previously - timing seems critical. And even if the recent information leaks have been both damaging and embarrassing, anyone with an understanding of where the Ukrainian nation and its military have come from (particularly 1991, 2014, and 2022) would have understood their challenges - and yet how indomitable they have been so far in this war. The strategic political and military direction on the Ukrainian side that has been a linchpin to this resistance to date gives me hope. One would have wished NATO and other Western-affiliated nations had been less gradualist in their support, but governments only move at the (perceived) speed of their electorates. It takes an exceptional leader ("Churchillian" comes to mind, even if that comparison is tinted by the rose-colored lens of ultimate victory) for things to go otherwise. I won't second-guess the tactical, beyond the "timing" comment; just quote MG Ryan again: We wish them well.
I feel like shifting axis towards Melitopol direction will be most likely as this is the most logical direction for Ukrainian to attack in their offensive. I imagine they will try to defend their current position around Bakhmut at the same time
I think options 1 and 4 are more realistic. And are somewhat similar to each other. (Probably a spectrum between them.) This is a grinding war. Trenches and artillery.
I think the "massive losses" and "human waves" is overdone media chatter. And you are starting to hear this bleed out from people like Koffman. This doesn't mean the pro-Russian analysts are right either. They've been wrong over and over for a year now). But, I'm still wary of the (agreed slighter) bias of the pro Ukraine media and analyist/consultant/FFRDC complex.