Mick, an interesting way to war game a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan thru fictional narrative. Let’s hope your ultimate goal is achieved to bring to light the human and economic toll of such a gross miscalculation not just of resolve or strength, but the miscalculation of what is and is not truly in China’s national interest.
How much do you go into the global economic impacts of such a war? Surely they dwarf those of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It would totally upend global supply chains across most sectors of economic activity. How much of US and EU on shoring of strategic economic sectors is prelude to a possible war over Taiwan? Will China’s current economic problems will cause China to concentrate on domestic issues over international rivalry? Or is this a distraction to the domestic audience so they ignore the serious internal economic problems?
Gen. Ryan, Can you contact me? I'd like to write a review, or may a "preview" of "White Sun War" for our weekly magazine. — Jamie McIntyre, senior writer, defense and national security, Washington Examiner. jmcintyre@washingtonexaminer.com.
An attempted invasion across the Strait is super unlikely. More likely are dueling blockades (the CCP attempting to blockade Taiwan) and the US and allies attempting to strangle China at the Malacca Strait, where the majority of the oil China uses still flows followed by brinksmanship (BTW, an attempted invasion of Taiwan would also lead to an attempted strangulation of China by the West).
But you see where that leads, which means even that scenario is very unlikely.
What you will likely see are more saber-rattling and brinksmanship.
The political dynamics in China and Russia are different. Putin has always raised his popularity in Russia by invading (Chechnya, Georgia, the Donbas, Crimea, Syria).
China has done so by raising living standards. Then again, growth in China will stagnate in the coming decades. Still, a war with India in mid-21st century is more likely.
My random comment would be, that is this tangent vaguely akin to William Gibson’s novel “Vanishing Light “ maybe that is way off the charts random and if so, please excuse my bifurcation from relevance , perhaps it’s more about a personally trending fictional narrative for me rather than the relevant subject matter.
Mick, an interesting way to war game a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan thru fictional narrative. Let’s hope your ultimate goal is achieved to bring to light the human and economic toll of such a gross miscalculation not just of resolve or strength, but the miscalculation of what is and is not truly in China’s national interest.
How much do you go into the global economic impacts of such a war? Surely they dwarf those of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. It would totally upend global supply chains across most sectors of economic activity. How much of US and EU on shoring of strategic economic sectors is prelude to a possible war over Taiwan? Will China’s current economic problems will cause China to concentrate on domestic issues over international rivalry? Or is this a distraction to the domestic audience so they ignore the serious internal economic problems?
Gen. Ryan, Can you contact me? I'd like to write a review, or may a "preview" of "White Sun War" for our weekly magazine. — Jamie McIntyre, senior writer, defense and national security, Washington Examiner. jmcintyre@washingtonexaminer.com.
An attempted invasion across the Strait is super unlikely. More likely are dueling blockades (the CCP attempting to blockade Taiwan) and the US and allies attempting to strangle China at the Malacca Strait, where the majority of the oil China uses still flows followed by brinksmanship (BTW, an attempted invasion of Taiwan would also lead to an attempted strangulation of China by the West).
But you see where that leads, which means even that scenario is very unlikely.
What you will likely see are more saber-rattling and brinksmanship.
The political dynamics in China and Russia are different. Putin has always raised his popularity in Russia by invading (Chechnya, Georgia, the Donbas, Crimea, Syria).
China has done so by raising living standards. Then again, growth in China will stagnate in the coming decades. Still, a war with India in mid-21st century is more likely.
My random comment would be, that is this tangent vaguely akin to William Gibson’s novel “Vanishing Light “ maybe that is way off the charts random and if so, please excuse my bifurcation from relevance , perhaps it’s more about a personally trending fictional narrative for me rather than the relevant subject matter.