My assessment in Foreign Affairs at the three year mark of the Russian large-scale invasion of how some elements of the war in Ukraine will impact on the character of future wars.
After reading your article in the Foreign Affairs in this post I am going to restrict my comments to Ukraines ability to stay in the fight.
From the moment Trump said he could end the war in 24 hrs I knew Ukraine was in trouble. Trump’s predilection for dictators & autocrats meant that he was always going to come down on the side of Putin. Despite calling Zelensky a “Dictator”, he knew it was a lie, much the same as his statement accusing Ukraine of starting the war was a lie.
Trump’s quad of negotiators, Rubio, Waltz and Witkoff plus Hegseth (none of whom speak Russian) have shown themselves incapable of independent thought and are held in check by the likes of Lavrov, Ushakov (who both speak English), Putin and Trump. Kellog is clearly irrelevant now, especially after expressing support for Zelensky as a “embattled & courageous leader”.
This I believe, is covered in part by your reference to war being a human and societal endeavour.
The continued release of video material on social media and other open source material, can be a two edged sword if viewer discretion is not used wisely. I am influenced by my personal bias, but I do realise this and try to balance my views. I have also identified which sites which are purely propaganda and which ones hold a more balanced view.
I guess my main concern now is the amount of disinformation out there, how hard it can be to distinguish fact from fiction, especially when it comes from actors with power and maligned intent and the inability for timely fact checking being done.
You are correct in saying that many people believed that the era of large conventional wars had come to an end after the Cold War. Russia it seems, disagrees. NATO’s lack of preparation also gives lie to Putin’s assertion that NATO was preparing to attack Russia, hence they had to move first.
Ukraine and Zelensky have proven that unification and leadership can make up for lack of preparation - for a time, but continued support is necessary.
Now that Trump and the US appear to have fallen into line with Putin/Russia’s demands and have placed a few of their own on Ukraine (i.e. Wanting access in perpetuity $500 billion worth of Ukraines resources). One can only hope that Zelensky is able to deny both Trump’s and Putin’s demands and receives appropriate support from the EU.
Briefly, Europe must use the $300 billion in frozen Russian assets to assist both Ukraine and the EU to carry the fight to Russia or lose it when a peace agreement is reached between the US & Russia. NATO with the US is dead and buried for the time being, but should be retained in some form for when/if the US returns. Scandinavian troops should assist the Baltic States, Polish troops should defend the Kaliningrad and Belorussian borders and a coalition of the willing should defend Belorussian borders in Ukraine and conduct training whilst there. (Not for peace keeping) Ukrainian troops would then be left to concentrate on defending the Russian border. Of course all this requires a commitment from Europe or their NATO equivalent that they haven’t shown yet, but unless they do they/we are doomed to live in a world where might makes right.
After reading your article in the Foreign Affairs in this post I am going to restrict my comments to Ukraines ability to stay in the fight.
From the moment Trump said he could end the war in 24 hrs I knew Ukraine was in trouble. Trump’s predilection for dictators & autocrats meant that he was always going to come down on the side of Putin. Despite calling Zelensky a “Dictator”, he knew it was a lie, much the same as his statement accusing Ukraine of starting the war was a lie.
Trump’s quad of negotiators, Rubio, Waltz and Witkoff plus Hegseth (none of whom speak Russian) have shown themselves incapable of independent thought and are held in check by the likes of Lavrov, Ushakov (who both speak English), Putin and Trump. Kellog is clearly irrelevant now, especially after expressing support for Zelensky as a “embattled & courageous leader”.
This I believe, is covered in part by your reference to war being a human and societal endeavour.
The continued release of video material on social media and other open source material, can be a two edged sword if viewer discretion is not used wisely. I am influenced by my personal bias, but I do realise this and try to balance my views. I have also identified which sites which are purely propaganda and which ones hold a more balanced view.
I guess my main concern now is the amount of disinformation out there, how hard it can be to distinguish fact from fiction, especially when it comes from actors with power and maligned intent and the inability for timely fact checking being done.
You are correct in saying that many people believed that the era of large conventional wars had come to an end after the Cold War. Russia it seems, disagrees. NATO’s lack of preparation also gives lie to Putin’s assertion that NATO was preparing to attack Russia, hence they had to move first.
Ukraine and Zelensky have proven that unification and leadership can make up for lack of preparation - for a time, but continued support is necessary.
Now that Trump and the US appear to have fallen into line with Putin/Russia’s demands and have placed a few of their own on Ukraine (i.e. Wanting access in perpetuity $500 billion worth of Ukraines resources). One can only hope that Zelensky is able to deny both Trump’s and Putin’s demands and receives appropriate support from the EU.
Briefly, Europe must use the $300 billion in frozen Russian assets to assist both Ukraine and the EU to carry the fight to Russia or lose it when a peace agreement is reached between the US & Russia. NATO with the US is dead and buried for the time being, but should be retained in some form for when/if the US returns. Scandinavian troops should assist the Baltic States, Polish troops should defend the Kaliningrad and Belorussian borders and a coalition of the willing should defend Belorussian borders in Ukraine and conduct training whilst there. (Not for peace keeping) Ukrainian troops would then be left to concentrate on defending the Russian border. Of course all this requires a commitment from Europe or their NATO equivalent that they haven’t shown yet, but unless they do they/we are doomed to live in a world where might makes right.
the fly in the eus ointment is hungary, the eu will have to sidestep orban in their wish to to spend the russian money held in belgium
We in the US have to keep fighting Trump. He’s a Putin puppet and his plans for Ukraine are unacceptable.
Why haven't we seen the emergence of directed energy weapons on the battlefield? This would be a logical counter drone weapon.
The Ukrainians have tested them in the past year but we have not seen any wide deployment yet.
Appreciate your reply.