Back in April this year, I described in my Futura Doctrina post on this topic seven key measures of success for Ukraine’s 2023 campaign. I did this because it was obvious then that many offering comment on the war did not possess a clear view of what success in Ukraine’s coming offensive might consist of other than ‘advance to the sea’ in southern Ukraine. We can do better than that, particularly as reporting on progress is difficult without consistent and well-defined measures of success.
Mick, great addition of how to assess and measure failure and ways to counteract it. I think we saw this in the initial stages of the offensive where AFU attempted mobile attacked with companies of armored vehicles and then changed their tactics.
With respect measures of success, the attack last night on the naval base at Sevastopol was not only a success in taking out ships, but also repair facilities to force RU into extending its maintenance logistics to Novorossysk on the far east end of the Black Sea. And this built on the surprise of taking the Boykin Towers oil and gas platforms that took out radar and EW that helped RU cover the western Black Sea. Talen together, such operational planning and execution in that scale has to be a huge surprise to Russia.
Thank you for these discussions. They are a great learning exercise for me that I can use in my professional life and have already done so!
I still have the feeling that Ukraine tried exactly one multi-company attack, with the Leopard and Bradley equipped 47th Mechanized Brigade, just to demonstrate to NATO military experts that the force is no longer strong with their doctrine. The shift to more appropriate tactics came fast, if the lack of new footage of a dozen armored vehicles taken out in one place is a reliable indicator (I think it is).
Almost like Zaluzhyni was saying *there, see? This is not the war you were looking for, my dudes.*
I continue to be impressed with how Kyiv understands the meta game of it all.
always informative. I'd add a simple postscript. UK will win (or mostly win) based on it's ability to continue to impress upon the West the importance of it's winning, which will be evidenced by a continuing flow of money and arms.
Another brilliant article by Mick. The Russian military historical approach is to treat their own soldiers as less important than mules means that the normal matrix of destruction of forces is inapplicable to them. There is however a critical mass of human slaughter and futility that reslts in the Russian soldiers engaging in their “Great Retreat”.
I believe Putin will never end the war willingly. The only end can come when Putin is murdered or dies of natural causes.
Good read, thank you for sharing your thoughts. They are always worth the read, and I appreciate the deeper understanding you lend us your audience. Sigh, maybe I should have had caffeine before trying to string words together.
Mick, great addition of how to assess and measure failure and ways to counteract it. I think we saw this in the initial stages of the offensive where AFU attempted mobile attacked with companies of armored vehicles and then changed their tactics.
With respect measures of success, the attack last night on the naval base at Sevastopol was not only a success in taking out ships, but also repair facilities to force RU into extending its maintenance logistics to Novorossysk on the far east end of the Black Sea. And this built on the surprise of taking the Boykin Towers oil and gas platforms that took out radar and EW that helped RU cover the western Black Sea. Talen together, such operational planning and execution in that scale has to be a huge surprise to Russia.
Thank you for these discussions. They are a great learning exercise for me that I can use in my professional life and have already done so!
I still have the feeling that Ukraine tried exactly one multi-company attack, with the Leopard and Bradley equipped 47th Mechanized Brigade, just to demonstrate to NATO military experts that the force is no longer strong with their doctrine. The shift to more appropriate tactics came fast, if the lack of new footage of a dozen armored vehicles taken out in one place is a reliable indicator (I think it is).
Almost like Zaluzhyni was saying *there, see? This is not the war you were looking for, my dudes.*
I continue to be impressed with how Kyiv understands the meta game of it all.
always informative. I'd add a simple postscript. UK will win (or mostly win) based on it's ability to continue to impress upon the West the importance of it's winning, which will be evidenced by a continuing flow of money and arms.
Yes. There is a feedback loop there. And, I doubt any nation on earth (even China) can win without Allie’s these days.
Another brilliant article by Mick. The Russian military historical approach is to treat their own soldiers as less important than mules means that the normal matrix of destruction of forces is inapplicable to them. There is however a critical mass of human slaughter and futility that reslts in the Russian soldiers engaging in their “Great Retreat”.
I believe Putin will never end the war willingly. The only end can come when Putin is murdered or dies of natural causes.
Good read, thank you for sharing your thoughts. They are always worth the read, and I appreciate the deeper understanding you lend us your audience. Sigh, maybe I should have had caffeine before trying to string words together.
Thanks for a terrific update!