Thanks for your insights.

Has there been any reports on the Ukrainian’s ability to breach Russia’s prepared defences in this counter attack, or was this a case of taking back a “grey area” only recently captured by Wagner?

My hope, of course, is that Russia has wasted much time and material in the construction of their mini Maginot line, but some data that it is actually ineffective (or as good as all things Russian have proven to be thus far) would be comforting.

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Perhaps there will not be a grand strategic advance. Perhaps the most important anctions Ukraine can take are those which convince its backers to continue support. If Ukraine showed competence in several modes of combat that might satisfy the doubters.

Breaking the Russian line at Bakhmut conveys one sort of competence. A swift moving, “open-field running” offensive around Mykolaiv is another mode of combat that could demonstrate uccesful command and control with mobile brigades . And perhaps most intriguing would be the Ukrainian use of recently donated small boats to perform raiding operations along the Crimean coast- perhaps after practice on the long spit of low land between Crimea and Kherson. If combined arms operations are difficult, so too are amphibious operations. If they can perform all three modes of combat- even at demonstration level of scale- I imagine they would garner new respect and signal that the Trench War will not be a permanent feature.

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