Reading how complicated doing withdrawals are makes me nervous that the Ukrainians will be able to pull it off but then I reflect that it's you can almost count on the Russians not being able to competently take advantage of opportunities that may come their way....I'd give a lot to know how well the Ukrainians have done in relative casualities. One wonders how many offensives like Bakhmut the Rusians can perform without starting a serious anti-war movement in their country. For every dead Russian there must be two or more seriously wounded ones who will come home full of talk about how glorious Putin's imperial wars really are.
Good analysis, then what follows a withdrawal? Russia then wins a ruined small city and can then continue using or tying up resources to make incremental geographical gains; along the lines of Blackadders' 1:1 scale battlefield map and one inch gain....
One would also assume that Ukraine is also sizing up tactical weak points further south due to Russian resources being used and expended around Bakhmut?
It will not only be a matter of Ukraine withdrawing with as few casualties as possible and in an orderly fashion. It will also require a narrative by the Ukrainian president and military commanders to explain this withdrawal with the previous most senseless losses. It is like always; soldiers fight as long as they have confidence in the leadership and their commanders.
This article seems imo to be a regurgitation of the disengagement doctrine that the author has been exposed to in his army career. I found the construct banal with little nuance. How well did this go for the US In disengaging with the enemy in Afghanistan? We get to the last para, or so, to discuss the effect of Russia capturing the devastated area. “What use could it be he postulates”. Here’s an idea, how about a powerful slap in the face to the West’s proxy war against Russia? Which, again, has us all imo, sleep walking to catastrophe. Yes, I get it, what should we do except support Ukraine. What a shame US Foreign policy dimwits have led us here. It’s going to get a lot worse from here.
FYI- I would have subscribed re; your knowledge and acumen re; the conflict, however , its clear you have a dog in the fight, theres enough partisan sites out there......
Interesting. The big question for me is how many losses each side has taken. A friend of mine met a Russian soldier on a train in Krasnodar who'd been in Bakhmut (he went for the money), and who got shot in the teeth, and luckily survived. This was last July! Nearly 8 months ago. I tend to think Russian losses in Bakhmut were probably huge. While most of them might have been pulled out of jail, it seems word got out in the jails and damaged subsequent recruiting. If convicts in jail are becoming scared to go to Ukraine, this could make subsequent mobilizations a bit harder as well.
That said, we don't really know. It might also be that the Russians are inflicting huge losses on the Ukrainians as well, and maybe the ratio is only 2:1 for Russian casualties to Ukrainian, and given Russia's roughly 3:1 population advantage, that is a win for Russia. I am skeptical though. Even if that's the case, it seems likely the number of trained Russian soldiers in Ukraine is probably less than the number of trained Ukrainian soldiers, and Russia's population advantage is only an advantage on paper, and won't help them in a late spring Ukrainian offensive unless they mobilized yesterday.
I really hope Ukraine manages to do this safely. One thing I don't understand (civilian here) is, given how bad tactics Russia employed, why wasn't it possible to prevent the encirclement? In the sense of, why couldn't enough firepower (arty/drones/etc.) be employed to prevent anything but frontal assaults?
Ukraine will outthink, out-heart, and outlast the Russki’s. They just need to receive the necessary support, know that they are the heart of the free world, and be on something close to a level field of fight. Their mettle was proven in a highly disadvantageous and sustained early effort. They come back strong each time, innovate, and seem to maintain morale--but this can’t last forever if they are just sitting ducks for missiles & can’t compete. The atrocities and inhumane treatment of civilians and children proved the Russian’s mettle, albeit they are highly skilled at disinformation, propaganda, and infiltration. Few can manage a relentless campaign, but Zelensky is a steady, determined leader for a courageous and valiant people who simply refuse to surrender their rights.
Bakhmut is theirs, and the home of a people who’ve just been unwilling to leave--with consequences unforeseen and certainty of great abuses their as has occurred all along. But yes, it is likely time to pull out and they’ve likely prepared a surprise strike elsewhere to dilute any modest propaganda victory. They’ve likely done as well as could be expected to pull out assets and citizens, or made arrangements that will enable this to occur quickly.
Ridiculous is that UKR would likely be able to retake the city At Will, but those fighting seem to deserve a respite. This situation reminds me of a reverse Stalingrad, although the Allies may not have provided enough support to allow them to completely turn the tables and break through and get into the rear of Bakhmut and rout the invader. Their fierce determination to protect every inch of their land and their citizens - must be commended. If we were to not provide adequate support, and the Ukrainians & Zelensky were to not commit to a ‘protect all’ mentality, it would be seen as weakness and result in more Ukrainians perhaps willing to cross over or accept a new order. That type of weak support or commitment can’t happen, nor can allowing Ukrainians that roll over to not be held accountable. However, for hostages and captured citizens and soldiers, understanding and leniency as relates to the level of prolonged suffering and/or abuse must be taken into consideration. For those who continue in cahoots with the Russians.... no quarter.
War is hell, and those who desire peace, but peace without sacrificing all that they stand for, believe in, and that leaves a weak result that may likely fail is no solution. The Russians are becoming weaker and it is simply unsustainable for them to continue the failing efforts--which will only result in a weakened position due to having to resort to the only things that they have left--abuse, atrocity, and terrorism that just weakens their position further. Critical is that Ukraine ramps up transparency and exposes Putin and his cronies, such that they are not able to truly become established, or continue their cyber warfare and rewriting Ukrainian laws and history.
Peace must come and it must be a just peace, and from a position of strength it will be achieved.
Tactical withdrawals are a necessity. It seems Ukraine has won this battle in the sense of bleeding the Russians of men and materiel. I do wonder if the Ukrainians may be luring the Russians into a trap of a kind. You mention Kupyansk being on higher ground and with well prepared defenses.
But with so many of the opinion that Bakhmut is of little or no strategic value, why the Russian fixation and why the Ukrainian insistence on defending it with such ferocity? Something just does not make sense about this location unless it really was only about attritional gains for Ukraine.
Or is Bakhmut some kind of deception op that just garners the main focus of the Russians there, fixing the Russian efforts here while the real action will be elsewhere?
The withdrawal by Ukrainian forces from Bakhmut should be viewed as an opportunity by Ukraine to inflict serious damage on the Russian/Wagner forces. My thinking is that when the Ukrainians withdrawal the Russians will be overly eager to advance and celebrate the "liberation" of Bakhmut. Given the poor planning and logistics we've seen so far its highly likely the Russians will over-extend their supply lines and expose their flanks. The Ukrainians can feint a counter-attack in the north then push for real gains in the southern Donbas on the east bank of the Dnieper River.
Thank you so much for taking the time to explain the situation and the possible scenarios. Your narratives are always exceptional and educational. Enlightening.
Reading how complicated doing withdrawals are makes me nervous that the Ukrainians will be able to pull it off but then I reflect that it's you can almost count on the Russians not being able to competently take advantage of opportunities that may come their way....I'd give a lot to know how well the Ukrainians have done in relative casualities. One wonders how many offensives like Bakhmut the Rusians can perform without starting a serious anti-war movement in their country. For every dead Russian there must be two or more seriously wounded ones who will come home full of talk about how glorious Putin's imperial wars really are.
Good analysis, then what follows a withdrawal? Russia then wins a ruined small city and can then continue using or tying up resources to make incremental geographical gains; along the lines of Blackadders' 1:1 scale battlefield map and one inch gain....
One would also assume that Ukraine is also sizing up tactical weak points further south due to Russian resources being used and expended around Bakhmut?
It will not only be a matter of Ukraine withdrawing with as few casualties as possible and in an orderly fashion. It will also require a narrative by the Ukrainian president and military commanders to explain this withdrawal with the previous most senseless losses. It is like always; soldiers fight as long as they have confidence in the leadership and their commanders.
This article seems imo to be a regurgitation of the disengagement doctrine that the author has been exposed to in his army career. I found the construct banal with little nuance. How well did this go for the US In disengaging with the enemy in Afghanistan? We get to the last para, or so, to discuss the effect of Russia capturing the devastated area. “What use could it be he postulates”. Here’s an idea, how about a powerful slap in the face to the West’s proxy war against Russia? Which, again, has us all imo, sleep walking to catastrophe. Yes, I get it, what should we do except support Ukraine. What a shame US Foreign policy dimwits have led us here. It’s going to get a lot worse from here.
FYI- I would have subscribed re; your knowledge and acumen re; the conflict, however , its clear you have a dog in the fight, theres enough partisan sites out there......
Interesting. The big question for me is how many losses each side has taken. A friend of mine met a Russian soldier on a train in Krasnodar who'd been in Bakhmut (he went for the money), and who got shot in the teeth, and luckily survived. This was last July! Nearly 8 months ago. I tend to think Russian losses in Bakhmut were probably huge. While most of them might have been pulled out of jail, it seems word got out in the jails and damaged subsequent recruiting. If convicts in jail are becoming scared to go to Ukraine, this could make subsequent mobilizations a bit harder as well.
That said, we don't really know. It might also be that the Russians are inflicting huge losses on the Ukrainians as well, and maybe the ratio is only 2:1 for Russian casualties to Ukrainian, and given Russia's roughly 3:1 population advantage, that is a win for Russia. I am skeptical though. Even if that's the case, it seems likely the number of trained Russian soldiers in Ukraine is probably less than the number of trained Ukrainian soldiers, and Russia's population advantage is only an advantage on paper, and won't help them in a late spring Ukrainian offensive unless they mobilized yesterday.
Academic prediction market on Bakhmut here: https://insightprediction.com/m/169724/will-russia-take-bakhmut-by-april-20th-2023
I really hope Ukraine manages to do this safely. One thing I don't understand (civilian here) is, given how bad tactics Russia employed, why wasn't it possible to prevent the encirclement? In the sense of, why couldn't enough firepower (arty/drones/etc.) be employed to prevent anything but frontal assaults?
Ukraine will outthink, out-heart, and outlast the Russki’s. They just need to receive the necessary support, know that they are the heart of the free world, and be on something close to a level field of fight. Their mettle was proven in a highly disadvantageous and sustained early effort. They come back strong each time, innovate, and seem to maintain morale--but this can’t last forever if they are just sitting ducks for missiles & can’t compete. The atrocities and inhumane treatment of civilians and children proved the Russian’s mettle, albeit they are highly skilled at disinformation, propaganda, and infiltration. Few can manage a relentless campaign, but Zelensky is a steady, determined leader for a courageous and valiant people who simply refuse to surrender their rights.
Bakhmut is theirs, and the home of a people who’ve just been unwilling to leave--with consequences unforeseen and certainty of great abuses their as has occurred all along. But yes, it is likely time to pull out and they’ve likely prepared a surprise strike elsewhere to dilute any modest propaganda victory. They’ve likely done as well as could be expected to pull out assets and citizens, or made arrangements that will enable this to occur quickly.
Ridiculous is that UKR would likely be able to retake the city At Will, but those fighting seem to deserve a respite. This situation reminds me of a reverse Stalingrad, although the Allies may not have provided enough support to allow them to completely turn the tables and break through and get into the rear of Bakhmut and rout the invader. Their fierce determination to protect every inch of their land and their citizens - must be commended. If we were to not provide adequate support, and the Ukrainians & Zelensky were to not commit to a ‘protect all’ mentality, it would be seen as weakness and result in more Ukrainians perhaps willing to cross over or accept a new order. That type of weak support or commitment can’t happen, nor can allowing Ukrainians that roll over to not be held accountable. However, for hostages and captured citizens and soldiers, understanding and leniency as relates to the level of prolonged suffering and/or abuse must be taken into consideration. For those who continue in cahoots with the Russians.... no quarter.
War is hell, and those who desire peace, but peace without sacrificing all that they stand for, believe in, and that leaves a weak result that may likely fail is no solution. The Russians are becoming weaker and it is simply unsustainable for them to continue the failing efforts--which will only result in a weakened position due to having to resort to the only things that they have left--abuse, atrocity, and terrorism that just weakens their position further. Critical is that Ukraine ramps up transparency and exposes Putin and his cronies, such that they are not able to truly become established, or continue their cyber warfare and rewriting Ukrainian laws and history.
Peace must come and it must be a just peace, and from a position of strength it will be achieved.
What worries me is a potential wave of "All is lost, we can only wait for Russia's inevitable triumph!" from idiots in the Western media and politics.
Tactical withdrawals are a necessity. It seems Ukraine has won this battle in the sense of bleeding the Russians of men and materiel. I do wonder if the Ukrainians may be luring the Russians into a trap of a kind. You mention Kupyansk being on higher ground and with well prepared defenses.
But with so many of the opinion that Bakhmut is of little or no strategic value, why the Russian fixation and why the Ukrainian insistence on defending it with such ferocity? Something just does not make sense about this location unless it really was only about attritional gains for Ukraine.
Or is Bakhmut some kind of deception op that just garners the main focus of the Russians there, fixing the Russian efforts here while the real action will be elsewhere?
The check move right now would be for the Allie’s to establish a no fly zone over western Ukraine, with the dam ration line being the Dnipro river.
The withdrawal by Ukrainian forces from Bakhmut should be viewed as an opportunity by Ukraine to inflict serious damage on the Russian/Wagner forces. My thinking is that when the Ukrainians withdrawal the Russians will be overly eager to advance and celebrate the "liberation" of Bakhmut. Given the poor planning and logistics we've seen so far its highly likely the Russians will over-extend their supply lines and expose their flanks. The Ukrainians can feint a counter-attack in the north then push for real gains in the southern Donbas on the east bank of the Dnieper River.
The capture of .Bahkmut may be useless from a strategic standpoint, but it is still gold from a propaganda standpoint
Thank you so much for taking the time to explain the situation and the possible scenarios. Your narratives are always exceptional and educational. Enlightening.
Excellent, excellent tutorial for us naive types!
Mick (and others), what are your thoughts on the million dollar question: the probability that Ukraine can cut the land bridge this summer?
Metaculus is at 30%. https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13531/ukraine-to-cut-land-bridge-to-crimea-by-2024/
Insight Prediction is a bit higher at 37-38%: https://insightprediction.com/m/154445/will-ukraine-sever-the-land-bridge-to-crimea-by-september-30th-2023