The analyzis by Emma Ashford lacks a couple of important aspects. In comparing the size and strength she forgets the human psyche: Russia has a much bigger pool of potential soldiers, but the motivation for fighting is undoubtly immensely greater among the Ukrainians than for the average Russian. So a cool calculus about resources and economy will always lack this aspect - just watch the Vietnam and Afghan wars.
Then the rhetoric of Putin signals an extreme level of hatred against the West and particularly the US. The fanatical level of revenge and imperial visions does not signal any will to stop attacking the free, democratic world. For him the fight is personal, and the obviously narcissistic vantage point will never let him give up - he must be physically defeated. On the battlefield. Any other outcome will result in endless war and enormous costs. This is what the 'rational' analyzis of Emma Ashford doesn't incorporate.
The analyzis by Emma Ashford lacks a couple of important aspects. In comparing the size and strength she forgets the human psyche: Russia has a much bigger pool of potential soldiers, but the motivation for fighting is undoubtly immensely greater among the Ukrainians than for the average Russian. So a cool calculus about resources and economy will always lack this aspect - just watch the Vietnam and Afghan wars.
Then the rhetoric of Putin signals an extreme level of hatred against the West and particularly the US. The fanatical level of revenge and imperial visions does not signal any will to stop attacking the free, democratic world. For him the fight is personal, and the obviously narcissistic vantage point will never let him give up - he must be physically defeated. On the battlefield. Any other outcome will result in endless war and enormous costs. This is what the 'rational' analyzis of Emma Ashford doesn't incorporate.
And the moral obligation to help Ukraine fight the bully is quite another part of the equation...