My regular update on conflict and confrontation in Ukraine, the Middle East and the Pacific, accompanied by recommended readings on the character of modern war and planning for future conflict.
Good information and recommendations as always. Three things I'd love to see, as a minimum in response to developments in Ukraine and Taiwan. We must take all restriction off of the weapons systems provided to Ukraine. Send a message to the PRC by having NATO and allied joint exercises starting to focus on convoy protection, and other measures needed to ensure Sea lanes remain open. Freeze all public and private assets belonging to North Koreans in western final institutions. I don't think further sanctions are worth the effort but this might hurt.
Separately, have you been watching the developments in the Horn of Africa. It looks like the chance of an active conflict is rising there. I am working on a piece for University on the tension between Ethiopia and Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and was struck by how the situation as deteriorated this year since Ethiopia made the deal for a port with Somaliland and Egypt allied herself with Somalia.
Ukraines (Zelensky) statement re the possible introduction of nuclear weapons for its defence, is a direct result of the inaction (cowardice) shown by its western allies in stopping the illegal invasion of Ukraine by Russia.
It should be noted that this is not Ukraines preferred course of action, an invitation to join NATO is their preference, but except for the possible agreement from France, there has been little or no support for this idea. We are not giving the Ukrainians many options.
I personally think that the 5 points raised in the initiative are more than reasonable. I would expect any country that was facing similar pressures, would seek similar assurances. Given that Ukraine gave up its right to nuclear weapons in 1994 (Budapest Memorandum) for security assurances from the US, UK and Russia, I think that the least the US & UK can do is honour that memorandum, clearly Russia won't.
There are many options to explore, ranging from Ukraine lowering its mobilisation age, the West giving Ukraine permission to use all donated weapons as designed, timely delivery of promised materials/ammunition and the enforcement/enlargement of current sanctions. Nothing should be off the table.
ps what happened to the $60 billion that was approved by the US, is the recent granting of $8 billion part of it or extra? Can Ukraine use experienced western F-16 pilots who are willing to volunteer to fight for Ukraine?
I also see that the evidence of North Korean troops being employed in Russia & Ukraine is mounting, but I do not see any evidence of NATO or the US being concerned about or reacting to it.
The donation of 49 M1 Abram tanks to Ukraine from Australia is a case of better late than never. How long before they are delivered? Why can't Australia donate more? such as the Hawkei & Bushmaster vehicles. I'm sure that Australians would not expect our troops to go into battle in Toyota Hilux's, but then again we have never had to fight an existential war on our own territory. If we don't support the likes of Ukraine, that may be our reality in 5-20 years.
In regard to your article on AUKUS Review, specifically Pillar 1, it is good to see that someone is at least looking at other options. I felt that Pillar 1 of the AUKUS agreement had become too politicised and that common sense was missing. $360 billion is a lot of money for half a dozen or so SSN submarines and could be spent far more effectively elsewhere. The first 2 elements are more than achievable. The next 2 not so much and are really out of our control. The next element has some elements which are feasible , but again, contains elements which are out of our control and will be impacted by an uncertain future. The last element of investing our money into our own industrial base to establish an Australian capacity is much more feasible and desirable for a country such as Australia.
The section discussing the Alternative of a US-Australian Division of Labour offers a much more realistic and viable alternative to the original agreement and I would hope that it is followed up by all concerned.
I have followed the Israel/Gaza/Lebanon/Iran conflict to a lesser extent, but only because unlike the Ukraine/Russia conflict, this does not involve an illegitimate invasion of a sovereign country. (the invasion of Lebanon may be considered an exception by some.)
Israel's conflict with its neighbours goes back to its very inception and Israel's expansion of it's settlements in the West Bank, treatment of Palestinians and it's bombing of Gaza are not going to make it's presence in the Middle East any more secure. Israelis should also be asking how the events of October 7th were possible and who is responsible? Israel does have the right to protect its citizens.
I do not pretend to know what solutions are possible, any Israeli victory now is only go to delay future actions against Israel. I think the two state solution is not an option anymore, but I don't know how they are going to live with each other without some serious comprises by both sides.
Thank you Mick. The Zonszein story on Israel seems sadly familiar to those of us here in the US.
Good information and recommendations as always. Three things I'd love to see, as a minimum in response to developments in Ukraine and Taiwan. We must take all restriction off of the weapons systems provided to Ukraine. Send a message to the PRC by having NATO and allied joint exercises starting to focus on convoy protection, and other measures needed to ensure Sea lanes remain open. Freeze all public and private assets belonging to North Koreans in western final institutions. I don't think further sanctions are worth the effort but this might hurt.
Separately, have you been watching the developments in the Horn of Africa. It looks like the chance of an active conflict is rising there. I am working on a piece for University on the tension between Ethiopia and Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) and was struck by how the situation as deteriorated this year since Ethiopia made the deal for a port with Somaliland and Egypt allied herself with Somalia.
Ukraines (Zelensky) statement re the possible introduction of nuclear weapons for its defence, is a direct result of the inaction (cowardice) shown by its western allies in stopping the illegal invasion of Ukraine by Russia.
It should be noted that this is not Ukraines preferred course of action, an invitation to join NATO is their preference, but except for the possible agreement from France, there has been little or no support for this idea. We are not giving the Ukrainians many options.
I personally think that the 5 points raised in the initiative are more than reasonable. I would expect any country that was facing similar pressures, would seek similar assurances. Given that Ukraine gave up its right to nuclear weapons in 1994 (Budapest Memorandum) for security assurances from the US, UK and Russia, I think that the least the US & UK can do is honour that memorandum, clearly Russia won't.
There are many options to explore, ranging from Ukraine lowering its mobilisation age, the West giving Ukraine permission to use all donated weapons as designed, timely delivery of promised materials/ammunition and the enforcement/enlargement of current sanctions. Nothing should be off the table.
ps what happened to the $60 billion that was approved by the US, is the recent granting of $8 billion part of it or extra? Can Ukraine use experienced western F-16 pilots who are willing to volunteer to fight for Ukraine?
I also see that the evidence of North Korean troops being employed in Russia & Ukraine is mounting, but I do not see any evidence of NATO or the US being concerned about or reacting to it.
The donation of 49 M1 Abram tanks to Ukraine from Australia is a case of better late than never. How long before they are delivered? Why can't Australia donate more? such as the Hawkei & Bushmaster vehicles. I'm sure that Australians would not expect our troops to go into battle in Toyota Hilux's, but then again we have never had to fight an existential war on our own territory. If we don't support the likes of Ukraine, that may be our reality in 5-20 years.
In regard to your article on AUKUS Review, specifically Pillar 1, it is good to see that someone is at least looking at other options. I felt that Pillar 1 of the AUKUS agreement had become too politicised and that common sense was missing. $360 billion is a lot of money for half a dozen or so SSN submarines and could be spent far more effectively elsewhere. The first 2 elements are more than achievable. The next 2 not so much and are really out of our control. The next element has some elements which are feasible , but again, contains elements which are out of our control and will be impacted by an uncertain future. The last element of investing our money into our own industrial base to establish an Australian capacity is much more feasible and desirable for a country such as Australia.
The section discussing the Alternative of a US-Australian Division of Labour offers a much more realistic and viable alternative to the original agreement and I would hope that it is followed up by all concerned.
I have followed the Israel/Gaza/Lebanon/Iran conflict to a lesser extent, but only because unlike the Ukraine/Russia conflict, this does not involve an illegitimate invasion of a sovereign country. (the invasion of Lebanon may be considered an exception by some.)
Israel's conflict with its neighbours goes back to its very inception and Israel's expansion of it's settlements in the West Bank, treatment of Palestinians and it's bombing of Gaza are not going to make it's presence in the Middle East any more secure. Israelis should also be asking how the events of October 7th were possible and who is responsible? Israel does have the right to protect its citizens.
I do not pretend to know what solutions are possible, any Israeli victory now is only go to delay future actions against Israel. I think the two state solution is not an option anymore, but I don't know how they are going to live with each other without some serious comprises by both sides.
For further reading I would recommend to following article. Brings up some relevant issues. https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2024/10/16/putin-and-netanyahu-are-both-on-barbaric-crusades-why-is-the-international-response-so-different/?
"Strategic and moral failure" covers 100% of what has happened and guides the remedy.