My regular update on conflict and confrontation in Ukraine, the Middle East and the Pacific, accompanied by recommended readings on the character of modern war and planning for future conflict.
Please discuss how China could fail in a kinetic annexation of Taiwan. China has massive missile forces to deny US naval access and can damage bases in Guam. Japan and S Korea will be threatened too so an alliance may not hold. And would a US president (meaning Harris) accept the loss of 5500 Americans and their aircraft carrier without a massive retribution on China? Would the US be forced to use a demonstration nuke or a tactical nuke on a Chinese military site?
I don't have the technical chops to discuss whether China's missile forces means annexation of Taiwan would be inevitable.
I would be shocked if any US President didn't respond very forcefully to the sinking of a US aircraft carrier. Any response would certainly involve B-2, B-21 (not many Raiders for a while, though), B-1B and possibly B-52 launching long-range munitions round-the-clock but I'm not sure that would be nearly enough to defeat an invasion. If China could deny the US Navy the ability to degrade their attack on Taiwan then it would also theoretically be able to prohibit the US from being able to resupply Taiwan by ship or send in large numbers of troops except via aircraft.
There's no such thing as using a 'demonstration' nuclear weapon on an enemy military site, c'mon man lol.
The most important thing is preventing an attempted invasion in the first place and helping Taiwan prepare to defend itself in case it happens. We should be arming Taiwan to the teeth because that's the best way to prevent war.
My comments were mostly to address the denial of access posed by China to US Naval forces. Therefore, the reliance would be on long range air power. A US President would have to forcefully respond to the sinking of a US carrier. Therefore, they might not place the carrier/Navy at risk. And then Taiwan is a fait accompli for China.
In addition to arming Taiwan (which is of questionable value- China is probably willing to absorb losses and overwhelm defenses), one might consider why the US does not have a Navy ship rotate through port of call there on an ongoing basis.
The "demonstration nuke" is a question posed over time in many situations. An odd concept, but it is out there as an idea short of a direct nuclear conflict. The idea of a tactical nuke on a military site has also been out there.
Dangerous times. The leaders of the anti-Western axis feel emboldened and counting on Trump to cave. After all, he knows they are strong smart leaders and he admires them. Kinda like he admires someone who once wrote a book about his plans the last century before 50 Million people were killed..........
The silence is deafening. Once again Putin has raised the stakes by bringing in DPRK troops and yet there is nothing but platitudes from the West ie “very, very serious” What will it take for the West to become serious about supporting Ukraine in its fight with Russia? It should not matter if the DPRK troops are employed in Russia/Ukraine yet or not, the West’s response should have been immediate and forceful.
On the eastern front it is becoming clear that unless Ukraine has a cunning plan up their sleeves they are slowly being pushed back due to sheer weight of numbers & materials by the Russian’s. The arrival of the mud season (Rasputitsa) may save the Ukrainians this year, but unless sufficient arms & reinforcement arrive over the winter, the Russian’s will continue on next summer. Wishful thinking does not replace action.
It is apparent that the West is not ready to make the hard choices ie do we want to stop Russia and what are we going to do about it or do we wish it would all just go away, much like Europe did with the Nazis in 1938. The time for dithering is over and Ukraine needs to defeat and/or force Russia to retreat next year.
The use of glide bombs by Russia in Ukraine is devastating and I believe a big reason why Russia is making any advances. What to do about it? Supply of and/or approval to use longer range missiles to target bases from which to glide bombs are launched? More F16’s? The US has hundreds available - I know there are only small numbers of both qualified pilots and aircraft in Ukraine, but does not the US & Europe have large numbers of trained F16 pilots? Some of whom I’m sure would welcome a chance of putting their skills & training into practice. Ground crews would also welcome the opportunity. They do not have to be mercenaries, they can be become members of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
I may have mentioned this before, but one area in which Ukraine has to lift it’s game is in the area of mobilisation. Why hasn’t the age of enlistment been lowered to 18 or even 21? This war is supposed to be a threat to Ukraines very existence. Most Western nations would already have these ages as a requirement. No doubt there are many Ukrainian’s of this age group who are already enlisted, but avoiding the issue is not going to alleviate Western concerns about this issue or help Ukraine’s manpower requirements. At the same time these enlisted men/women should be given sufficient arms & training to allow them to compete and overwhelm the Russian forces.
Also of concern is the time it takes for promises of arms & material to materialise. Is this a matter of tardiness by Western powers or the lack of arms and materials available? Are nations keeping these arms for themselves? Or do they not realise that the fight is in Ukraine right now and will only impact them if Ukraine is defeated. Eventually Ukraine will have to become self sufficient in arms production, but in the meantime the West should be doing all it can to supply Ukraine with materials necessary to defeat Russia.
Middle East
The possible benefits of Israels attack on Iranian military sites is that Iran they may be restricted in supplying missiles to Russia and the Houthis and limited in their ability to launch missiles at Israel.
It is a shame that Israel couldn’t show similar restraint when it comes to Gaza and to a lesser extent Lebanon.
Israel’s remorseless pursuit of Hamas & Hezbollah threatens to impact the level of support shown by the international community after October 7th last year. It won’t bring long term peace to Israel.
The Pacific
Great, the US has approved another $2 billion in arms sale to Taiwan. What about the $20 billion backlog of arms sales (as of 9/6/24) going back to 2015. I only have this from one source, so it is possible that it is not completely correct, but it does appear that the US has trouble fulfilling its obligations.
Good to see some pushback from Indonesia, if only all the nations surrounding the South China Sea worked together and showed the same resolution. Hopefully AUKUS maintains the spirit of cooperation that has taken place so far. Roll on the US elections.
Very good summary, of what is continued instability across the world. Thank you.
Please discuss how China could fail in a kinetic annexation of Taiwan. China has massive missile forces to deny US naval access and can damage bases in Guam. Japan and S Korea will be threatened too so an alliance may not hold. And would a US president (meaning Harris) accept the loss of 5500 Americans and their aircraft carrier without a massive retribution on China? Would the US be forced to use a demonstration nuke or a tactical nuke on a Chinese military site?
Super novice armchair person here.
I don't have the technical chops to discuss whether China's missile forces means annexation of Taiwan would be inevitable.
I would be shocked if any US President didn't respond very forcefully to the sinking of a US aircraft carrier. Any response would certainly involve B-2, B-21 (not many Raiders for a while, though), B-1B and possibly B-52 launching long-range munitions round-the-clock but I'm not sure that would be nearly enough to defeat an invasion. If China could deny the US Navy the ability to degrade their attack on Taiwan then it would also theoretically be able to prohibit the US from being able to resupply Taiwan by ship or send in large numbers of troops except via aircraft.
There's no such thing as using a 'demonstration' nuclear weapon on an enemy military site, c'mon man lol.
The most important thing is preventing an attempted invasion in the first place and helping Taiwan prepare to defend itself in case it happens. We should be arming Taiwan to the teeth because that's the best way to prevent war.
My comments were mostly to address the denial of access posed by China to US Naval forces. Therefore, the reliance would be on long range air power. A US President would have to forcefully respond to the sinking of a US carrier. Therefore, they might not place the carrier/Navy at risk. And then Taiwan is a fait accompli for China.
In addition to arming Taiwan (which is of questionable value- China is probably willing to absorb losses and overwhelm defenses), one might consider why the US does not have a Navy ship rotate through port of call there on an ongoing basis.
The "demonstration nuke" is a question posed over time in many situations. An odd concept, but it is out there as an idea short of a direct nuclear conflict. The idea of a tactical nuke on a military site has also been out there.
Dangerous times. The leaders of the anti-Western axis feel emboldened and counting on Trump to cave. After all, he knows they are strong smart leaders and he admires them. Kinda like he admires someone who once wrote a book about his plans the last century before 50 Million people were killed..........
Ukraine
The silence is deafening. Once again Putin has raised the stakes by bringing in DPRK troops and yet there is nothing but platitudes from the West ie “very, very serious” What will it take for the West to become serious about supporting Ukraine in its fight with Russia? It should not matter if the DPRK troops are employed in Russia/Ukraine yet or not, the West’s response should have been immediate and forceful.
On the eastern front it is becoming clear that unless Ukraine has a cunning plan up their sleeves they are slowly being pushed back due to sheer weight of numbers & materials by the Russian’s. The arrival of the mud season (Rasputitsa) may save the Ukrainians this year, but unless sufficient arms & reinforcement arrive over the winter, the Russian’s will continue on next summer. Wishful thinking does not replace action.
It is apparent that the West is not ready to make the hard choices ie do we want to stop Russia and what are we going to do about it or do we wish it would all just go away, much like Europe did with the Nazis in 1938. The time for dithering is over and Ukraine needs to defeat and/or force Russia to retreat next year.
The use of glide bombs by Russia in Ukraine is devastating and I believe a big reason why Russia is making any advances. What to do about it? Supply of and/or approval to use longer range missiles to target bases from which to glide bombs are launched? More F16’s? The US has hundreds available - I know there are only small numbers of both qualified pilots and aircraft in Ukraine, but does not the US & Europe have large numbers of trained F16 pilots? Some of whom I’m sure would welcome a chance of putting their skills & training into practice. Ground crews would also welcome the opportunity. They do not have to be mercenaries, they can be become members of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
I may have mentioned this before, but one area in which Ukraine has to lift it’s game is in the area of mobilisation. Why hasn’t the age of enlistment been lowered to 18 or even 21? This war is supposed to be a threat to Ukraines very existence. Most Western nations would already have these ages as a requirement. No doubt there are many Ukrainian’s of this age group who are already enlisted, but avoiding the issue is not going to alleviate Western concerns about this issue or help Ukraine’s manpower requirements. At the same time these enlisted men/women should be given sufficient arms & training to allow them to compete and overwhelm the Russian forces.
Also of concern is the time it takes for promises of arms & material to materialise. Is this a matter of tardiness by Western powers or the lack of arms and materials available? Are nations keeping these arms for themselves? Or do they not realise that the fight is in Ukraine right now and will only impact them if Ukraine is defeated. Eventually Ukraine will have to become self sufficient in arms production, but in the meantime the West should be doing all it can to supply Ukraine with materials necessary to defeat Russia.
Middle East
The possible benefits of Israels attack on Iranian military sites is that Iran they may be restricted in supplying missiles to Russia and the Houthis and limited in their ability to launch missiles at Israel.
It is a shame that Israel couldn’t show similar restraint when it comes to Gaza and to a lesser extent Lebanon.
Israel’s remorseless pursuit of Hamas & Hezbollah threatens to impact the level of support shown by the international community after October 7th last year. It won’t bring long term peace to Israel.
The Pacific
Great, the US has approved another $2 billion in arms sale to Taiwan. What about the $20 billion backlog of arms sales (as of 9/6/24) going back to 2015. I only have this from one source, so it is possible that it is not completely correct, but it does appear that the US has trouble fulfilling its obligations.
Good to see some pushback from Indonesia, if only all the nations surrounding the South China Sea worked together and showed the same resolution. Hopefully AUKUS maintains the spirit of cooperation that has taken place so far. Roll on the US elections.