The Big Five - 7 December edition
My regular update on conflict and confrontation in Ukraine, the Middle East and the Pacific, accompanied by recommended readings on modern war and future conflict.
As 2024 draws to a close, the number of events in national security and geopolitics seem to be acclerating. This week, I will be covering a broad range of conflicts, starting with Ukraine, then the Middle East and finally across the world to the Pacific Theatre. And, as always, I will finish with my five recommended reads on war and national security issues from the past week.
Ukraine
The British Ministry of Defence this week released new figures on Russian casualties in Ukraine since Feburary 2022. The daily average casualty rate for the Russians has now exceeded 1500 in November, and for the first time in the war (on 28 November) over 2000 casualties were reported on a single day. The British report also concludes that November 2024 was the deadliest month for Russia since its large-scale invasion of Ukraine commenced in February 2022, with a total of 45,860 casualties. Putin is sprinting to the inauguration of Donald Trump, hoping to capture as much of Ukraine as he can, and more importantly, solidify in the minds of Trump and his advisors the idea that Russian victory is inevitable.
Operations in Kursk continue with the Ukrainians holding on to their defensive positions and the Russo-Korean offensive seeking to dislodge the Ukrainians. As the two maps below show (one from two weeks ago and one from this week) there has been very little terrain that has changed hands in that time. Of note, Putin sacked the regional governor this week. What took him so long?
In eastern Ukraine, the Russians continue to suffer high casualties but they are also slowly advancing. They have resumed their advance in the vicinity of Pokrovsk, and further north, have consolidated positions on the eastern bank of the Oskil River while advancing on the river on another axis of advance to the south.
In southern Ukraine, Russian forces continued offensive operations in western Zaporizhia north of Robotyne. There remains speculation about a pending Russian offensive, including a crossing of the Dnipro River towards Kherson. This would be a significant undertaking by the Russians, and would demand a major effort to not only decieve the Ukrainians about where such a crossing might take place but also to suppress Ukrainian ISR and fires on the western side of the Dnipro. That said, Russia may see value in either a demonstration of a feint in this area to draw additional Ukrainian reserves away from the east and north of Ukraine.
The Ukrainian Navy in the past 24 hours conducted strikes against Russian observation systems mounted on gas platforms off the coast of Crimea. Interestingly, two sections of a video released by the Ukrainian Navy appears to show a drone launching off one of the Ukrainian uncrewed maritime craft. It is not clear whether this was an observation drone or something else. You can see this at the 30 and 125 second marks of the video. Information about the strikes was posted on the Ukrainian Navy’s official Twitter feed, which you can see here.
Also in southern Ukraine this week, a disturbing report emerged from the Financial Times about a deliberate Russian campaign to use FPV drones to terrorise the citizens of Kherson. As the report notes, "Kherson’s civilians have been, since midsummer, the target of an experiment without precedent in modern European warfare: a concerted Russian campaign to empty a city by stalking its residents with attack drones. The killer machines, sometimes by the swarm, hover above homes, buzz into buildings and chase people down streets in their cars, riding bicycles or simply on foot. The targets are not soldiers, or tanks, but civilian life.”
You can read the full article here.
The Ukrainian President this week announced the deployment of a new missile-drone system named 'Peklo' (Hell) for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. With a range of over 700 km, the new weapon was developed indigenously by Ukroboronprom. The first of the Peklos have been delivered, with plans for scaling up production.
There was some evidence this week that Western sanctions are degrading the quality of Russian uncrewed systems. The Washington Post has reported the sanctions are forcing the Russian defence industry to procure lower quality components from China. These lower quality components, including drone motors, are apparently leading to a higher failure rate of Russian-produced Shahed drones. The report described how Russian Shaheds have been observed spinning out of control after making sharp turns, causing some to crash.
Finally, this week @War_Mapper released his monthly update on territorial control in Ukraine and Russia. This is a useful product that provides a month by month analysis on one measure of success and failure for the Ukrainian and Russian forces in this war. However, it is just one measure and does not tell the full picture of the war. A fuller picture requires figures on casualties, industrial production, recruiting and reinforcement capabilities and perceptions of the war’s trajectory in Ukraine, Russia, Europe and beyond. That said, this update is always worth scanning
The Middle East
The big news in the Middle East at present is the continuing campaign by the Syrian rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to advance south. It has already captured the crucial northern city of Aleppo and appears to be on the verge of capturing Homs. The new offensive has surprised Assad’s regime, and many western observers. While Russia appears to be rushing elements of its Afrika Corps and air force assets to support the Syrian government, they are also evacuating many of its nationals. Iran reportedly plans to send missiles and drones to support Assad, and Hezbollah is apparently going to deploy military advisers.
It is too early to be predicting the fall of Assad’s regime yet, but unlike previous times where he has had a close brush with being toppled, Russia, Iran and regional militias are in a much poorer position to assist him. The next week or two may prove a decisive period for the future of the Assad regime.
The Pacific
This week, the President of Taiwan completed a visit to three Pacific nations. President Lai transited through Hawaii before visiting the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Palau, which are Taiwan’s three remaining diplomatic allies in the Pacific. China had a predictable temper tantrum, with a Chinese government spokesperson Mao Ning stating that China “resolutely opposes any form of official exchanges between the United States and Taiwan.”
Speaking to reporters in Palau during his overseas visit during the week, the Taiwanese President urged China to step back from the high level of joint exercises and incusions into Taiwanese airspace and its maritime EEZ. He noted that “it is better to open your hands than to clench your fists. Only by doing so can China win respect from the international community.”
The big shock of the week was the declaration of martial law by the President of the Republic of Korea. President Yoon Suk Yeol announced the imposition of martial law after accusing his political opposition of paralysing the government with "anti-state activities".
The President made a public apology in a televised address to his nation on Saturday morning, just ahead of a parliamentary vote on a motion to impeach him. President Yoon Suk Yeol may be sacked after the leader of his ruling party demanded the president be stripped of office for briefly imposing martial law.
The real question is this: how did this happen in a nation that is widely regarded as a successful and prosperous (albeit young) democracy? It will undoubtedly keep academics in Korea and beyond occupied for years. And, the events of this week will provide much fodder for North Korean and Chinese strategic influence operations to convince nations around the world that the existing world order, and the role of democratic nations, is not what the world needs in the 21st century.
One final and interesting point. In this year’s assessment of democracy in the world by Freedom House, South Korea recieved a score of 83 (which is really good) and an assessment of “free”. Four other nations recieved exactly the same score: Panama, Croatia, Romania and…the United States of America. I’ll let that just sit there. Readers can draw their own conclusions about this.
China this week also conducted incursions into Taiwan’s Air Defence Intercept Zone (ADIZ) with balloons and aircraft. China also maintained operations around Taiwan with Navy and Coastguard vessels.
Finally, in Japan this week, the annual Exercise Yama Sakura command post exercise began. The exercise is a high-level multidomain activity featuring Japan, the United States and Australia. This year, the exercise also includes the the U.S. Marine Corps' III Marine Expeditionary Force for the first time, along with an expanded Australian participation with the Headquarters of the 1st (Australian ) Division from Brisbane.
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Since my last Big Five post, I published two articles here. The first used the Star Wars movie Revenge of the Sith as a framework to explore contemporary challenges and opportunities with autonomous systems and AI. The second was my latest assessment of how the lessons from Ukraine might be translated for application in the western Pacific. I also wrote and submitted articles for two other outlets, which I expect to be published in the coming week.
This week I also travelled to Jakarta, Indonesia to give a presentation to the Indonesian Ministry of Defence on the lessons of Ukraine, and the big challenges for military and national security planners in the Pacific. I have been travelling to Indonesia for over 30 years, primarily for work, it is was great to be back once again (and to wear a batik shirt). It was also my 12th and final overseas research trip for 2024.
I also did the last of my weekly interviews for the Australian Broadcasting Corporation’s Afternoon Briefing before it goes on hiatus until 2025. The host, Greg Jennett, is also moving on to a newsreading role next year, so it was my final interview with him. We have spoken literally hundreds of times since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, and I will miss our weekly interviews. Good luck in 2025, Greg!
Recently, my book The War for Ukraine: Strategy and Adaptation Under Fire was released on audiobook. I know there are many of you who like this format, and I hope you enjoy the book this way. You can check it out here.
Finally, from next week, The Big Five post will be accompanied by a commentary from me on a re-born War Shorts podcast. The commentary will cover many of the elements of the written post, with some aspects being covered in more detail. It will also include a deep dive into a special topic for the week related to military technology, future warfare and the ongoing changes in the geopolitical situation. The commentary will be for paid subsribers only and will be released a little before the text version of The Big Five, which remain free.
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So, to the recommended readings…
This week, there is a good article on the application of uncrewed weapons and AI in warfare, and what level of meaningful human control we might expect. There are also articles on the North Korean deployment to Kursk, Chinese new embargo on sending criticial minerals to the United States of America, and a long read from an Australian submarine expert on the trajectory of the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine program.
As always, if you only have time to read one article, the first one is my pick of the week.
Happy reading!
1. The Illusion of Human Control of AI Weapons
In this piece, the author proposes that human control of AI-powered weapons is not only unworkable but probably unnecessary. As they notes in the article, “the real danger, however, may not be too little human control over these systems but the illusion that they can be controlled at all. This illusion offers false comfort to democratic governments, militaries, and societies by fueling a naive hope that they can design better systems by having humans in the loop.” Whether you are happy for robots to make our decisions to kill for us, or think that we need to ensure human ethics remain a part of military decision-making, this is an important article from Foreign Affairs. You can read it here.
2. China’s Ban’s Exports of Critical Minerals
This week, China announced a ban on the export of several critical minerals to the United States. For some time now, western strategists have been concerned about China’s stranglehold on rare earth and critical minerials, given how important they are to western military systems, communications and electric vehicles. While the U.S. and Australian governments have been funding alternative suppliers for some of these rare earths, the latest Chinese move is sure to acclerate the development of alternative supply chains by western nations. You can read the article here.
3. Asia Power Index
Each year, the Lowy Institute publishes a survey of the power of different nations across the Asia-Pacific. Using eight different measures, such as economic capability, resilience, military capacity and more, the survey is a good insight into the influence of different nations across Asia and the Pacific. You can read the survey and the interactive website that accompanies the 2024 report here.
4. The Meaning of North Korea’s Kursk Deployment
Last month, it was confirmed that North Korea had deployed an 11,000 person expeditionary force to Russia’s Kursk oblast and that it would be employed to fight Ukraine and push the Ukrainians out of Kursk. This article from RUSI explores the the rationale for the North Korean leader to dispatch his troops to a war where they are likely to suffer significant casualties. You can read the article here.
5. Reversing Course on Subs?
This article, published by the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, proposes that Australia should cut its losses with the AUKUS program and go back to French submarines. As the author, an experienced submariner, notes, “Australia should start planning for acquisition of at least 12 submarines of the French Suffren design. The current AUKUS plan for eight nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs) has always been flawed, and now its risks are piling up.” Whether you are a strong supporter of the AUKUS nuclear-powered submarine program, or think that Australia can spend its defence dollar more wisely, this is a thoughtful article that is well worth the time to read. You can read the full piece at this link. For many Australians, the immediate response to this article will be: “oh no, not again.”
RE: Suffren class SSN's. A good deal of the problems with working with the french was their attitude and work ethic. Going back there is not an option especially if we are not buying OTS but insisting on modified fitouts for weapon systems. If we need a strategic intelligence gathering capability SSN Attack boats are not the answer. As the name suggests they are for area denial. Forward basing of a diesel electric fleet with better battery tech (see Japanese) and AIP fitted with surveillance drones can do that job. Investment in emerging magnetic influence satellite technology is making the littoral space ever more transparent. A two class fleet can then have time to mature bringing on SSN's if we really need them (not just want them). The question is and remains : what capability are we really trying to achieve here? I would argue that given our geographical location and population; generating a asymmetric advantage is really what we need. Not sure that Billions of sunk cost on a SSN program is going to generate that.
Like everybody else I am waiting for Trump's inauguration before I say I told you so. Everybody is wondering what is going to happen, including Putin, Zelensky and NATO.
Hard to keep up with events in Syria. Looks like they are in Damascus already. As for what will happen once Assad is deposed, watch this space.
I did read the article re AUKUS submarines and I understand the sense of deja vu, but in general I agree. The cost and timeframe around the AUKUS SSN submarines is so exposed to blowouts and outright failure that it could be seen as almost criminal for any Australian government to pursue this path. I do not know much about the French SSN submarines or any other possible alternatives, but for all the reasons mentioned in the article I believe the current AUKUS Pillar 1 is a poor option when it comes to the defence of Australia.