I think that there is another explanation to why Russia (Putin and his oligarchy) is pushing ahead with fighting a risky war they are effectively losing. This year they may occupy another few percent of Ukrainian territory or lose what they have already taken. Even if they make territorial gains, this will be a Pyrrhic victory like capturing Soledar, as Ukrainians and the West won't recognise new Russian territories and the conflict will never end. It is possible that the process of mission creep has already taken its toll, like in 1914, and the insane logic of mass slaughter has already prevailed over civilian thinking. In this case both sides will lose in the long run. But this is not the worst thing. My worry is that Putin has another long-term strategic goal and he is actually realising it. Everything is on track. He is not deluded and not taken for a ride by his handpicked echo-chamber deputes (this is what my Russian friend was telling me, that nobody knows anything and everything is a mess, but I am afraid he is wrong). The real goal of the Special Operation is to rebuild самодержавие and Stalinism. Stalin "proper" needed a famine of 1932-33 to break the resistance of (mostly Ukrainian) peasants to collectivisation. He killed at least 3.5 million but the figure might have been higher (10 million). Especially after an "encouraging" natural experiment with Covid (386k deaths in Russia and nobody really cared about it), Putin won't blink if he needs to sacrifice 200k or 500k soldiers to implement his vision of a https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Soviet_man . Or rather old... Putin wants to rebuild Russia so that it resembles North Korea, an isolated and underdeveloped country obsessed with rocketry and so-called nuclear science. I remember reading an article on a Russian website a few years ago. A traveller said that "it was a beautiful country, exactly like the USSR in the 1960s". So Putin and his supporters don't mind going down the path of "juche". I can keep going on but I am actually horrified that I may be right. I should probably dig out more stuff but wading through toxic speeches delivered by the General Secretary, oops, the President, is not what I want to do tonight.
Thank you for yet another informative and thoughtful read. For me it helps providing a systematic framework to understand what is going on in this and other wars.
As you state: purpose is vital. For the soldiers who need to know why and for what they are fighting. Purpose is essential for their moral.
Purpose is essential for the civil population. War means that they must bring sacrifices. Purpose is essential for their endurance.
And purpose is essential for international recognition and thereby for support politically and in terms of material and weapons.
Great article Mick. What would be the consequences of an invasion via Belarus. The Ukrainians have been somewhat restrained in their attacks into actual [i.e. not Crimea or occupied land] Russian territory. Were Belarus to become directly involved would it provoke a response that might test the actual hold that Lukashenko has on power?
I’m not sure that it’s 100% accurate to say that the tempo has slowed. Today’s released numbers for demilitarized russians is 820 !?
Maybe say “pace of observable change has slowed”? Just like it had slowed over the summer and all the media and pundits started whining and wailing about the so-called stalemate. Then…. badaboom!!
I think that there is another explanation to why Russia (Putin and his oligarchy) is pushing ahead with fighting a risky war they are effectively losing. This year they may occupy another few percent of Ukrainian territory or lose what they have already taken. Even if they make territorial gains, this will be a Pyrrhic victory like capturing Soledar, as Ukrainians and the West won't recognise new Russian territories and the conflict will never end. It is possible that the process of mission creep has already taken its toll, like in 1914, and the insane logic of mass slaughter has already prevailed over civilian thinking. In this case both sides will lose in the long run. But this is not the worst thing. My worry is that Putin has another long-term strategic goal and he is actually realising it. Everything is on track. He is not deluded and not taken for a ride by his handpicked echo-chamber deputes (this is what my Russian friend was telling me, that nobody knows anything and everything is a mess, but I am afraid he is wrong). The real goal of the Special Operation is to rebuild самодержавие and Stalinism. Stalin "proper" needed a famine of 1932-33 to break the resistance of (mostly Ukrainian) peasants to collectivisation. He killed at least 3.5 million but the figure might have been higher (10 million). Especially after an "encouraging" natural experiment with Covid (386k deaths in Russia and nobody really cared about it), Putin won't blink if he needs to sacrifice 200k or 500k soldiers to implement his vision of a https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Soviet_man . Or rather old... Putin wants to rebuild Russia so that it resembles North Korea, an isolated and underdeveloped country obsessed with rocketry and so-called nuclear science. I remember reading an article on a Russian website a few years ago. A traveller said that "it was a beautiful country, exactly like the USSR in the 1960s". So Putin and his supporters don't mind going down the path of "juche". I can keep going on but I am actually horrified that I may be right. I should probably dig out more stuff but wading through toxic speeches delivered by the General Secretary, oops, the President, is not what I want to do tonight.
Thank you for yet another informative and thoughtful read. For me it helps providing a systematic framework to understand what is going on in this and other wars.
As you state: purpose is vital. For the soldiers who need to know why and for what they are fighting. Purpose is essential for their moral.
Purpose is essential for the civil population. War means that they must bring sacrifices. Purpose is essential for their endurance.
And purpose is essential for international recognition and thereby for support politically and in terms of material and weapons.
Great article Mick. What would be the consequences of an invasion via Belarus. The Ukrainians have been somewhat restrained in their attacks into actual [i.e. not Crimea or occupied land] Russian territory. Were Belarus to become directly involved would it provoke a response that might test the actual hold that Lukashenko has on power?
Fantastic read, thank you!
I’m not sure that it’s 100% accurate to say that the tempo has slowed. Today’s released numbers for demilitarized russians is 820 !?
Maybe say “pace of observable change has slowed”? Just like it had slowed over the summer and all the media and pundits started whining and wailing about the so-called stalemate. Then…. badaboom!!