Great post. Are Russia’s “extensive fortifications” a double edged sword?
They will tie up large numbers of Russian troops in locations not central to the battle. Also, once breached, the potential to encircle poorly equipped and supplied conscripts will present itself. Finally, EVERYTHING Russian in the war so far -- every weapons system, military branch, tactic and strategy -- has proved to be overhyped and underwhelming. Will these fortifications prove to be any different? One hopes not.
Style Almost WWI slaughter, over 200,000 Ukrainian men dead and similar on the Russian side. Lot’s of talk about the offensives and Ukraine winning. That wont happen, they have run out of troops. Where are these new troops coming from? Arguably WWIII has already started. NATO troops and advisors already in action as “contractors”. The US is now considering sending F16s. Dear God, just listen to yourselves. I am a military vet and I am scared to death that we will all be dragged into another US Deep State FU. this proxy war must stop. Let’s have a post on how the hell this nightmare can be brought to an end.
I don't have your depth of experience and knowledge, but I have faith in the Ukrainians. They have proven that their will to win is an asset that cannot be overvalued.
The weather forecast at Bakhmut gives Ukraine a brief window of relatively dry conditions during the first week of April. The second week will be cloudier and wetter. If Ukraine is going to act early, I suspect it will be in that time frame. Otherwise, we should not expect anything until the second half of the month.
The locations that large scale counter offensives are least expected coincide with those areas of exhausted, dis functional Russian forces, the least observed prepared defensive positions and the greatest concentration of known Ukrainian experienced force.
Why drive South to Melitopol, amphibiously assault the Kinburn Spit or push through the forests east of Kharkiv when you can stick them right in the gut either side of Donetsk?
Doesn’t seem to be too much around Marinka and Vuhledar that would stop a drive on Rostov on Don trapping 60% of the Russian Army in the south of Ukraine.
Also, what would most likely improve the odds? More artillery? Longer range missiles to further back up Russian supply lines? More modern tanks? F-16s?
Ukraine and the West can't sustain such a large group of mismatching equipment. Sending a few pieces of this and that is not an answer to a material war. They are one time tools that will be dumped after they are broken. There are no more resources to send new ones. There is no ammunition production ramping up. "Lending" it from South Korea is not an answer to the problem. None of the western economies is in the war time mode. The lack of missiles is obvious and the production is not ramping up. The sanctions hit hard but not the target but the West. Until the western leaders finally realize that this is a all in war Ukraine doesn't stand a chance.
Broadcasters want action now. However the few months training with very limited supplies of new potent weapons is inadequate for a force that cannot afford to lose men for partial gains. Committing to a land offensive without state of the art AirPower, with limited range artillery, and a mere pocket of decent tanks is a recipe for defeat. Patience should be urged while Ukraine builds its forces in number and potency. Zelensky has the political capital to wait and build. He should do so.
Russia is the natural resources powerhouse of Europe and China. Having burned its bridges with Europe, they are left with a single customer paying “beggar the producer” prices. The longer this lasts the sooner the centre will be unable to hold. China gets its resource rich Eastern Siberia sphere of influence client states. The US ends Russia’s nuclear threat and its funding of anti US business politics.
The arrival of modern tanks and AFVs will coincide with the arrival of Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs. GLSDBs have roughly twice the range of HIMARS rockets. If GLSDBs were used suddenly and massively against Russian ammunition dumps currently out of range of HIMARS strikes, it could destabilize Russian logistics at a crucial time leading to the success of Ukrainian offensives.
Given the difficulties involved I will continue to 'hold my (collective) breadth until I get confirmed news of a Ukriainian breach of the lines and a successful exploitation...It was interesting to see that Mick Ryan (who knows more about these things than me) believes Ukraine has sufficient resources to conduct multiple offensives.
Great post. Are Russia’s “extensive fortifications” a double edged sword?
They will tie up large numbers of Russian troops in locations not central to the battle. Also, once breached, the potential to encircle poorly equipped and supplied conscripts will present itself. Finally, EVERYTHING Russian in the war so far -- every weapons system, military branch, tactic and strategy -- has proved to be overhyped and underwhelming. Will these fortifications prove to be any different? One hopes not.
Slava Ukraini and thanks again for your posts!
Style Almost WWI slaughter, over 200,000 Ukrainian men dead and similar on the Russian side. Lot’s of talk about the offensives and Ukraine winning. That wont happen, they have run out of troops. Where are these new troops coming from? Arguably WWIII has already started. NATO troops and advisors already in action as “contractors”. The US is now considering sending F16s. Dear God, just listen to yourselves. I am a military vet and I am scared to death that we will all be dragged into another US Deep State FU. this proxy war must stop. Let’s have a post on how the hell this nightmare can be brought to an end.
I don't have your depth of experience and knowledge, but I have faith in the Ukrainians. They have proven that their will to win is an asset that cannot be overvalued.
The weather forecast at Bakhmut gives Ukraine a brief window of relatively dry conditions during the first week of April. The second week will be cloudier and wetter. If Ukraine is going to act early, I suspect it will be in that time frame. Otherwise, we should not expect anything until the second half of the month.
The locations that large scale counter offensives are least expected coincide with those areas of exhausted, dis functional Russian forces, the least observed prepared defensive positions and the greatest concentration of known Ukrainian experienced force.
Why drive South to Melitopol, amphibiously assault the Kinburn Spit or push through the forests east of Kharkiv when you can stick them right in the gut either side of Donetsk?
Doesn’t seem to be too much around Marinka and Vuhledar that would stop a drive on Rostov on Don trapping 60% of the Russian Army in the south of Ukraine.
Great post. What do you think the odds are that Ukraine can cut the land bridge by the end of the summer campaign season? Prediction markets (Metaculus, Insight) have the odds around 25-30%. https://insightprediction.com/m/154445/will-ukraine-sever-the-land-bridge-to-crimea-by-september-30th-2023
Also, what would most likely improve the odds? More artillery? Longer range missiles to further back up Russian supply lines? More modern tanks? F-16s?
Is punching a hole in the land-bridge a priority. If so, where would Ukraine punch that hole?
Exceptional and detailed observations as always 👍
Ukraine and the West can't sustain such a large group of mismatching equipment. Sending a few pieces of this and that is not an answer to a material war. They are one time tools that will be dumped after they are broken. There are no more resources to send new ones. There is no ammunition production ramping up. "Lending" it from South Korea is not an answer to the problem. None of the western economies is in the war time mode. The lack of missiles is obvious and the production is not ramping up. The sanctions hit hard but not the target but the West. Until the western leaders finally realize that this is a all in war Ukraine doesn't stand a chance.
Broadcasters want action now. However the few months training with very limited supplies of new potent weapons is inadequate for a force that cannot afford to lose men for partial gains. Committing to a land offensive without state of the art AirPower, with limited range artillery, and a mere pocket of decent tanks is a recipe for defeat. Patience should be urged while Ukraine builds its forces in number and potency. Zelensky has the political capital to wait and build. He should do so.
Russia is the natural resources powerhouse of Europe and China. Having burned its bridges with Europe, they are left with a single customer paying “beggar the producer” prices. The longer this lasts the sooner the centre will be unable to hold. China gets its resource rich Eastern Siberia sphere of influence client states. The US ends Russia’s nuclear threat and its funding of anti US business politics.
The arrival of modern tanks and AFVs will coincide with the arrival of Ground Launched Small Diameter Bombs. GLSDBs have roughly twice the range of HIMARS rockets. If GLSDBs were used suddenly and massively against Russian ammunition dumps currently out of range of HIMARS strikes, it could destabilize Russian logistics at a crucial time leading to the success of Ukrainian offensives.
Excellent analysis. Thank you!
Given the difficulties involved I will continue to 'hold my (collective) breadth until I get confirmed news of a Ukriainian breach of the lines and a successful exploitation...It was interesting to see that Mick Ryan (who knows more about these things than me) believes Ukraine has sufficient resources to conduct multiple offensives.
Thanks You.